Two and a half weeks

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Two and a half weeks until Oscar night, and the only question is whether George Clooney will beat Paul Giamatti for Best Supporting Actor. It'll be Brokeback Mountain for Best Picture, and Ang Lee for Best Director, Capote's Philip Seymour Hoffman for Best Actor (although it should ideally be a tie between Hoffman and Heath Ledger), Walk the Line's Reese Witherspoon for Best Actress, Cinderella Man's Giamatti and Syriana's Clooney neck and neck, The Constant Gardener Rachel Weisz winning for Best Supporting Actress, Crash's Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco for Best Original Screenplay, Brokeback Mountain's Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana for Best Adapted Screenplay, Gavin Hood's Tsotsi for Best Foreign Language Film (anti-Palestinian potshots have killed the chances of Paradise Now ); Tim Burton's Corpse Bride ought to win the Best Animated Feature, but watch the majority give it to Wallace & Gromit: Curse of the Were-Rabbit; Brokeback Mountain's Gustavo Santaolalla ought to win for Best Original Score (please, please don't give it John "Tuesday night at the Hollywood Bowl" Williams); "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" for Hustle & Flow deserves to win for Best Original Song (as an overall tribute to the film).