Hold on...I may have jumped the gun in projecting that Mission: Impossible III's weekend tally will top $50 million. I'm being reminded that sequels (almost) always have their peak day on Friday, and that the more likely weekend figure will therefore be around $46 million. The most telling comparison is with John Woo's Mission: Impossible II, which opened six years ago to $70,816,215 over a long Memorial Day weekend, and $57 million for the Friday-to-Sunday period. And that's without factoring in a 15% inflation in movie-ticket prices since then. So the comparison is not even $57 vs. $46 million , which in itself represents a drop of $11 million. By the numerical standard of 2000 ticket prices and going by an assumption that M:I:3 will make $46 million this weekend, the adjusted weekend gross (compared to the first-weekend gross of the John Woo sequel) is $40,000,000. So it's really $57 million vs. $40,000,000, which is roughly a 17% drop. Even if M:I:3 makes $50 million this weekend in 2006 dollars, you're still looking at a fairly significant plunge. And the irony is that J.J. Abrams' film is the best of the three.

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Posted by Jeffrey Wells on May 6, 2006 at 6:57 PM

comment #1

Nick says ...

The opening isn't soft enough. People still love their Cruise. Had it opened to 20 million, there's a bitch slap. This flick will still get to about 150 domestic and double that overseas, you're on the money. I have to admit though, the next stuido head that greenlights a big summer picture for 2007 starring Tom Cruise has got to be out of his/her mind. America can't take another summer of nonstop Cruise PR. Let's hope his next movie is something smaller, maybe he should get on board the next PTA project. If his next movie is low profile, he'll still be around in 10 years. If he does another big 100 million ode to himself, he's out in four.

Posted by Nick at May 6, 2006 7:52 PM

comment #2

Guy Steele says ...

Thought I would weigh in on this matter with Mr. Cruise. His antics over the last two years have been crazy for a star of his magnitude but for me what has that to do with his movies? I really do not like Alec Baldwin's poltical views and statements he's made since 9/11 but does that keep me from liking some of his movies? NO! They are seperate things. Another instance, Quentin Tarantino. I have been to his Film Fests in Austin and watched him of course in interviews on TV. He is a fanboy to the ninth degree. But he also is one talented genius when it comes to writing scripts and directing. I love his movies, always entertained and challeged by them. Now about MI3, All I hope is that this flick finally captures the spirit of the original TV show otherwise why make these movies as MI call them something else.

Posted by Guy Steele at May 6, 2006 9:06 PM

comment #3

Daniel Zelter says ...

Nick: I don't think a tentpole film which only does slightly better than United is destined for Greatness. Methinks the slump is slowly returning.

Guy: I wouldn't mind Cruise personally if he didn't screw with my entertainment by forcing Isaac Hayes to leave South Park. That's why I hate Quentin, too. He uses Harvey to buy up Asian films like Hero so no one can see them. That, and him being a junky thug who only knows how to curse every other word.

Posted by Daniel Zelter at May 6, 2006 11:14 PM

comment #4

Anon. says ...

Well... I don't know which figures to trust, but according to Boxofficemojo, MI2 only did $57.8 million in its opening weekend. MI2 opened on a Wednesday, so perhaps IMDB is counting a 5-day weekend with the higher figure. Either way, MI3 is still down a bit - although I have to admit it seemed to be doing well tonight (sold out four screens at my local megaplex...)

Posted by Anon. at May 7, 2006 12:08 AM

comment #5

guy steele says ...

Daniel: Cruise got Hayes fired? Hayes and the South Park dudes seem like folks that would never let a Movie Star no matter how big flush their toilet.

Tarantinio: Yes his actors swear, yes he swears it does seem to be everywhere, the swearing I mean. Now about the Asian films... I am not sure that QT is a bad influence here. After all he scolded Harvey for dubbing some of this flicks early on. And thanks to QT's efforts I got to see Hero and loved it... Though I was let down b House of Flying Daggers. It was pretty but it just didn't work for me like Hero or Tiger did. Still the only things I haven't liked by Tarantino besides his acting is what was done to his script for Natural Born Killers. True Romance on the other hand was brillant. Best Tony Scott film by far.

Posted by guy steele at May 7, 2006 12:15 AM

comment #6

Patrick says ...

I don't care what people say, this is a total
disaster for all involved! Only $46-52 million for
a big, tent-pole summer action film? HORRIBLE!!!!
This "thing" should've at least opened with $70-
90 million if it were worthy two cents in the end.
Lucky for Tom that his films tend to stay together
for a while before dropping a large amount. So,
perhaps he'll be able to get this one to around
$150 million in North America by the end of its
run. However, it'll still be considered THE huge
letdown of this summer. I'm sure it'll gross
upwards of $300 million overseas.

Posted by Patrick at May 7, 2006 5:10 AM

comment #7

Harvey_birdman says ...

MI:3 the best of the bunch? Please, De Palma's is not only the best but also a quality spy flick on its own.

SPOILERS
Abrams' overediting and atrocious end sequence (she's dead, she's alive, PSH's going to kill her, she's OK, he's going to die, he's dead, he's alive, she saves the day) were embarrasing. Was I the only one in the theatre hoping PSH would put two in each of their skulls?

Posted by Harvey_birdman at May 8, 2006 8:53 AM

comment #8