July tracking figures

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Early tracking numbers on Miami Vice and Snakes on a Plane won't be surfacing for a while, but some of the mid-July attractions are going to make exhibitors "moan and moan loud," I was told earlier today. Things could always bump up once the TV ads for the following films kick in (current figures are basically about the impact of theatrical trailers), but right now July isn't looking that great aside from Pirates 2 business. Columbia's Little Man (7.14) has a sluggish 68% general awareness, a 25% definite interest, a 20% definitely not interested and 4% first choice. Universal's You, Me and Dupree (7.14) is looking "very soft" so far: 59 % general, 27% definite interest, 5% definitely not interested and 3% first choice. Clerks 2 (Weinstein Co., 7.21) has a reported 29% general, 31% (one third of the 29%) definite interest, 10% no interest and 3% first choice. The numbers on M. Night Shyamalan's Lady in the Water (Warner Bros.) are not encouraging for a movie by a auteur-level director whose name is recognized by audiences like Steven Spielberg's: 53% general, 29% definite, 16% definitely not interested (higher than it should be...scary) and 3% first choice. Columbia's Monster House (7.21) is at 60% general, 25% definite interest, 5% not interested and 2% first choice. Ivan Reitman's My Super Ex-Girlfriend (20th Century Fox, 7.21) is at 56% general, 20% definite interest, 8% no interest and zero first choice.

comment #1

Daniel Zelter says ...

Little Man reminds me of an old WB cartoon. Anyway, if anyone expected Clerks 2 to be a hit, they've got to be out of their minds. It's got a narrow fanbase and an actress who has very little recognition. But I'm actually surprised My Super Ex-Girlfriend has higher tracking than expected.

comment #2

Dixon Steele says ...

More tracking bullshit.

Jesus....

comment #3

says ...

Speaking of bullshit, do you have anything constructive to add or are you just going to post the same whiny complaints everytime Wells posts tracking numbers?

comment #4

Dixon Steele says ...

If you can pull your nose out of Jeff's ass, maybe you'd realize tracking IS bullshit.

comment #5

Seth says ...

What's the difference if it is bullshit or not? Are less people going to see the film because of the tracking? It is merely informational.

It wouldn't surprise me if Little Man does better than the tracking indicates (even though it looks terrible) merely because it is a film that is geared towards younger and urban audiences.

comment #6

JoJo says ...

Dixon, the only people who say that tracking is bullshit are those that either don't understand it or don't know how to use it properly. Which are you? Or are you both?

comment #7

Dixon Steele says ...

No, JoJo, what I object to is its rampant inaccuracies. Even many studio exces will admit it. If you actually knew any, you'd know I'm right.

But don't take my word for it. Didn't THE BREAK-UP's tracking predict it was "toast" (Jeff's word, not mine). The last time I checked it had cleared the $100 million mark.

Guess I just didn't know how to use it, right?

comment #8

JoJo says ...

No, Dixon, the tracking numbers did not predict that THE BREAK-UP was toast. Jeffrey was misinterpreting them, as he later admitted. That's my point: tracking numbers "in the wrong hands," so to speak, can be a dangerous thing. When they're used by someone who knows what they represent and how they can be useful, then there's no problem.

comment #9

JoJo says ...

...and since some people may not be scrolling down to the Superman opening day box office post...I'll cut and paste what I just said there into this thread. Sorry for the off-topic nature, but I wanted people to see it:

David Poland said, "We don't remove links or hide errors. We make notes and keep our mistakes, in the rare of event of making one, public. Do you know ANY other outlet that does that? I don't."

As of 8:24 PM, he (or someone else at MCN) has now removed the link to the JESSE JAMES teaser, and has reworded the link to the Chris Weitz story so that it no longer makes it seem like MCN missed the boat on the initial announcement.

So much for "we don't remove links or hide errors," huh, Poland?

comment #10

Patrick says ...

Gee, Poland and Wells bashing! What a shock! Look
these tracking figures are just for fun. Get over
it. Jeff and Mr. Poland can write stories about
them if they want to. By the way, 'Miami Vice'
will tank worse than Pluto Nash!

comment #11

guy steele says ...

Patrick my man, Vice might not be the hit it needs to be and there might be a 'who cares' feeling about and yes while he is good looking and can act for some reason Colin Farrell can't open a jar of pickles let alone a movie but he has the Jamie on board to help at the box office... but this is really my point: It's a Michael Mann film and that is all I need to get me into the theater. He is the modern Kubrick in terms of how he sets up his frames and fills the spaces his camera takes in plus he controls every aspect of what we see. If you doubt me on this watch The Insider which should me considered a masterpiece of filmmaking... to take such a boring story for a movie and keep you rivited without any real action is a tribute to what Mann can achive. Are his films alwaus perfect? No, I have had problems with the endings of Heat and Collateral but still his artistry and control is unrivialed. Ridley Scott makes beautiful movies but not with the emotional context that Mann brings and yes Terrence Mallack is our Van Gogh of film but he really needs to understand how to tell a story and move the plot along. So yes Vice will do ok biz I would think maybe 50-60 Mil. But it will or at least I expect it to be a controlled work of art that moves.

comment #12

cadavra says ...

"Little Man reminds me of an old WB cartoon."

To be precise: Chuck Jones' BABY BUGGY BUNNY.

comment #13

Nick says ...

My Predictions:
Little Man: 60 mil, cause people will be bored
You, Me & Dupree: 110 max, cause it looks dumb, if its funny maybe more
Clerks 2: 30ish, if its more, that'll be the statement everyone is looking for in terms of hunger for R rated comedy
Lady In The Water: 50 mil, no stars and the previews are terrible
Monster House: 75mil, cartoon burnout
My Super Ex Girlfriend: 100, if the best bits aren't in the preview, if not 80
Finally:
Miami Vice: I think it'll be a home run at 150, I don't know anyone who doesn't want to see it, mostly because it doesn't look like the TV show of the 80s, looks like what the TV show might look like today, a good thing.

comment #14

Matt says ...

Wow, surprised to see those bizarre numbers for LADY IN THE WATER. I thought the ads so far have been fantastic. Let's hope interest goes up in the next three weeks.

comment #15

Daniel Zelter says ...

Seth: Little Man sounds stupid. At least White Chicks had a satirical edge as its selling point. This one just looks as bad as Baby Geniuses.

Anyway, the Break Up did better than expected, but
it didn't really save Universal like 40 Year Old Virgin last year. They're gonna have to bring out their third Bourne film soon.

guy: Since when has Foxx been a box office draw? Ray's success had to do with people being a fan of the singer, not the actor.

cadavra: Thanks.

Nick: I don't think there's any film outside of Dogma which even came close to $30 m for Kevin...
If Shannon Elizabeth couldn't sell Jay and Silent Bob, what makes you think Rosario Dawson will help Clerks 2? My Super Ex Girlfriend is going to suffer from the superhero burn-out. If Uma wasn't enough to sell a bigger star-studded film like Be Cool, I'm not sure she'll do much for that one. And Vice has too many things against it to do more than $100 million here.

comment #16

bachelorcool says ...

Just got back from seeing the latest "Fast and the Furious" (it was neither), where the trailer for "Miami Vice" was shown. Hmm. By making it look nothing like the TV series, it resembles nothing less than a generic Cop Crime Thriller with kiss-of-death Colin Farrell and Jamie ("Stealth", anyone?) Foxx providing no incentive for the multi-plexers to see it whatsoever. I love Michael Mann films, but I suspect people who go to see movies don't. If it ain't pastel, why bother calling it MV?

comment #17

Seth says ...

I agree bachelorcool. It will only work against the movie. I remember when the trailer was shown, people seemed to be into it until they revealed that the title was Miami Vice. That is when the place erupted with laughter.

comment #18

Dixon Steele says ...

Dan: Hate to break your Kevin Smith-hating heart, but JAY & SILENT BOB grossed $30 million.

comment #19

guy steele says ...

Hey Daniel... Thinking about your comment your partly right, Ray's success while in part due to Foxx was also supported by Ray's fan base as well. I know that Stealth was bad and tanked and that Jarhead didn't perform well even though it got descent reviews but both movies Foxx had supporting roles. He other role was 2nd lead in Mann's Collateral and he held his own there. But is HE a Box-Office draw... more then likely no at least of course not like Will Smith.

Also Be Cool... which was a terrible movie especially following the wonderful Get Shorty. The Cast was hugh and filled with peeps who can act. But when the best moments are delivered by the Rock and not Travolta, Uma, Keitel, Devito, or Vince you know you are in trouble... but the real blame for this disaster should be laid not at the actor's feet or even the screenwriter but at the feet of the Director and editor. The movie had zero energy and scenes played on too long.

All that said I can understand some snickers in the audience during the trailer when the title Miami Vice is reveled, it is remembered as a campy but cool-in-another-time tv show. But folks this is Mann... and he will deliver, now if only in my opinion he nails the ending.

comment #20

lesterg says ...

I'm sorry, but hasn't "Snakes on a Plane" been over for like 2 months? Seriously, the movie is basically an after-thought at this point.

comment #21

Michael Adams says ...

The lack of interest in Lady in the Water may have something to do with that awful trailer that's been showing in theaters for months. It makes the movie look like a sluggish downer.

comment #22

Sean Richardson says ...

"No, Dixon, the tracking numbers did not predict that THE BREAK-UP was toast. Jeffrey was misinterpreting them, as he later admitted. That's my point: tracking numbers "in the wrong hands," so to speak, can be a dangerous thing. When they're used by someone who knows what they represent and how they can be useful, then there's no problem."

Jeffrey, along with every single person who got the tracking numbers, misinterpreted them in the exact same way ... but it's their fault! it has nothing to do with tracking! Tracking is perfect!

Ha, what a maroon.

comment #23

Colin says ...

I'm sure that the trailer for Lady plays a role, but I also just think that a lot of people were burned by The Village. And I know, a lot of people were burned by Unbreakable and Signs, but the level of anger after The Village was, from the way I saw it, on a different level.

comment #24

JoJo says ...

Sean:

Again, that's simply not true. Jeffrey posted VERY early tracking numbers for a film and made broad-based guesses as to how it would do, based on faulty knowledge. He has admitted that. Tracking indicated greater interest in THE BREAK-UP as it approached release. However, no one reported that, because the waters had already been muddied by misinterpretation of the initial numbers.

Tracking numbers in a vacuum mean nothing. They are useful when compared to similar movies that have been released in the past. Trends emerge that ARE instructive, whether or not you choose to believe it.

comment #25

Dixon Steele says ...

JoJo,

Just curious. Do you work for NRG?

comment #26

JoJo says ...

Dixon:

No, I do not work for NRG.

comment #27

Frankie says ...

I think everyone is going to be pleasantly surprised by Lady in the Water in a few weeks. Some of Shyamalan's imagery is legitimately brilliant this time out, and the stuff that isn't brilliant is magical. The ending is his personal best, and the best I've seen in any movie since Tootsie.

comment #28

Colin says ...

Wow, Frankie, that comment about the ending is saying a lot, considering The Sixth Sense.

comment #29

Hopscotch says ...

I'll give him a hand by casting Paul Giamatti as a lead, but I've been over M. Night for awhile.

None of the post-6th Sense movies have really blown me away, though I kind of like Signs...up until we saw the alien of course.

The numbers will shift AFTER pirates comes out. Right now everyone is all about seeing Pirates when they get that out of the way, they'll want to check out some of the other stuff.

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