Qualifying Tracking (Again)

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That qualifying statement I threw in with those tracking figures that ran yesterday (i.e., that they only reflect the impact of theatrical trailers, and that the numbers might uptick once TV advertising kicks in) wasn't enough, I'm being told. One, statistical analysis has shown that people focus on super blockbusters. By extension, numbers for movies that follow are naturally suppressed so films like You, Me and Dupree or Clerks 2 or Lady in the Water aren't going to register that heavily with here-and-now behemoths like Pirates 2 and Superman Returns hogging all the attention. ("All these numbers may look very different once Pirates has opened," a studio insider points out. "Once they've seen Pirates , then what will they go see?") Two, sometimes one needs to look more closely at quadrant and demographic strength to have any chance of gauging a movie's likely success. For example, one quadrant -- older women, say -- can be cool on a film like Clerks 2 while another quadrant -- younger males -- can be very keen on seeing it. African-Americans or Latinos or kids may have a strong affinity for a film like Little Man that can go under-reported. These kinds of imbalances aren't reflected in overall numbers so a distorted picture can result. Four, sometimes the tracking is just wrong, like when NRG numbers indicated Universal would take some kind of opening-weekend bath with The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift when it wound up doing $23,973,840 after debuting on 6.18. And five, tracking itself is a very inconsistent science and a lot of anecdotal stuff that ought to be factored in sometimes isn't factored in, so at the end of the day you have to stand back and take it with a grain.

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