So what happened to the heat over Nacho Libre? Last month I kept hearing that audiences were laughing at the trailer, that it was the summer's big comedy slam-dunk, etc. I hope I'm not stepping into another Break-Up situation, but recent tracking on Nacho Libre (Paramount, 6.16) indicates a not-that-great opening weekend. Maybe a little more than $20 million, I mean. There's a chance, in fact, that The Fast and Furious: Tokyo Drift (Universal, 6.16) might ace it out. Another film that's not looking all that vigorous is The Devil Wears Prada (20th Century Fox, 6.30). Hold on...what happened to the hairdresser bandwagon? I thought every hairdresser in the U.S. and a portion of his/her clientele was going to catch Prada over the 4th of July weekend. Maybe that'll happen, but the figures say a sizable audience isn't forming in support of poor Prada as an alternative to Superman Returns. You could argue and say, "Hey, what's wrong with an opening weekend gross in the mid teens?" Well, there's nothing "wrong" with it, exactly...

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Posted by Jeffrey Wells on June 13, 2006 at 3:44 PM

comment #1

Jose Hernandez says ...

Over 20 millions for a movie with Jack Black and no other stars, from the director of Napoleon Dynamite, i'll take that.

Posted by Jose Hernandez at June 13, 2006 4:35 PM

comment #2

Amy says ...

Exactly, Jose. It isn't as if Black is an established opener, all he has is "School of Rock" and I think people saw it because it was a great little movie not because of just Black. For the names attached, opening over $20m is pretty fab!

Posted by Amy at June 13, 2006 4:44 PM

comment #3

Hopscotch says ...

the amount of ads I've seen for that damn movie. They're not aiming to open at $20M and close at $60M. They want $40M and end at $120M.

Though that but cheek-squeezing scene does make me laugh.

Posted by Hopscotch at June 13, 2006 4:44 PM

comment #4

Anonymous says ...

It will open to somewhere around 30 and end up around 120.

Posted by Anonymous at June 13, 2006 4:56 PM

comment #5

Snoop says ...

Unless the movie get critical raves and is just out of this world good, I can't imagine it actually grossing $100M. I imagine a domestic gross of more like $85M, which is still very good. It just seems to weird to gross that much. I gotta think not many people over 35 actually want to see it?

Posted by Snoop at June 13, 2006 5:20 PM

comment #6

Snoop says ...

Besides, it is opening up against 4 new movies - The Lake House will do well, and odds are The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift and the Garfield sequel will see their fair share of coin.

So something in the mid 20s would seem to be pretty good.

Posted by Snoop at June 13, 2006 5:25 PM

comment #7

nick says ...

mid to low 20's opening for Nacho...$80-90 total IF it's truly "funny", not assinine-funny. I don't know...I have no interest in it at all and I liked Napoleon Dynamite. Tokyo Drift will win the weekend with a bigger number than anyone is expecting...today's review in Variety by Todd McCarthy was surprisingly good...

Posted by nick at June 13, 2006 5:26 PM

comment #8

TOMAS says ...

meh. BRING ON SUPERMAN!

Posted by TOMAS at June 13, 2006 5:26 PM

comment #9

JoJo says ...

Anyone who thinks THE LAKE HOUSE is going to do well is delusional.

Posted by JoJo at June 13, 2006 5:36 PM

comment #10

delbomber says ...

Loved 'Napolean Dynamite'...loved Jack Black through Orange County...zero interest in 'Nacho Libre'

Posted by delbomber at June 13, 2006 6:00 PM

comment #11

lesterg says ...

That's too bad about Prada, but not entirely unexpected. While I understand the counter-programming concept, it's always seemed like an early-fall movie. That long-form trailer has also done nothing but inspire hatred among audiences...

Superman is tracking at 88M for the five day, which is decent. Word-of-mouth is going to determine how badly itâ€™s damaged by POTC moving forward. Iâ€™m still amazed that I do not know a single person who wants to see it.

Posted by lesterg at June 13, 2006 6:03 PM

comment #12

Daniel Zelter says ...

The marketing for Prada's as weak as the marketing for In Her Shoes. I'm not sure if FOX really cares about capturing the romantic comedy market, either. Why should they? Their tentpoles are where they get the big bucks. But at least don't hire big names like Streep if you're not gonna do anything with them.

Posted by Daniel Zelter at June 13, 2006 6:10 PM

comment #13

nick says ...

To Lesterg: what movie do u mean? Nobody u know wants to see Superman or POTC? I think both will do just fine, but POTC is gonna be the biggest hit of the summer.
And yeah, that long Prada trailer is DREADFUL...I get that they were trying something new but damn do I hate that ad...feels like it goes on forever.

Posted by nick at June 13, 2006 6:11 PM

comment #14

Shell says ...

I saw the Prada trailer before The Break-Up, and the audience were laughing like maniacs; I didn't find it funny, personally. The same audience howled laughing at the abysmal (and LONG) trailer for Talladega Nights.

Someone stop Will Ferrell from making more movies, please.

Posted by Shell at June 13, 2006 6:24 PM

comment #15

lesterg says ...

Superman, Nick. Pretty much everyone I know wants to see POTC. Unless it's awful it will be the top grossing film of the summer.

In terms of Supes: I'm not doubting it will do decent business. It's just one of those weird flukey things that every person I talk to expresses complete disinterest. It's similar to what I was hearing before MI:III opened. But as I said before, WOM could turn that around.

(FYI - I actually like the Prada trailer simply because it's so different, but I understand why 99% of people hate it.)

Posted by lesterg at June 13, 2006 6:35 PM

comment #16

Anonymous says ...

$20-25 million would be a big win for this one, as I can't imagine it cost much and it'll probably play slowly but surely all summer if it's allowed. Indeed, it's that rare breed... the PG live action movie that isn't specifically a kids film, so kids will want to see it for at least a couple weeks if gossip spreads in camp or wherever. This is also why it COULD open much higher thank tracking would indicate, since I presume NRG doesn't send moles to the playground.

Point being, the film, due to its rating and its alleged content, may have the feeling of something that kids are 'getting away with seeing' and thus they may like it more than they might have otherwise (same argument goes for PG-13 movies that feel like R, such as Rush Hour or The Ring).

When I assumed that the movie would be PG-13, I agreed with Wells' thoughts on the tracking. Now, I'm not so sure.

Random thoughts, feel free to discuss.

Posted by Anonymous at June 13, 2006 6:40 PM

comment #17

Scott Mendelson says ...

Sorry for the double post, I didn't sign the first one and I prefer to do so on principle...

When I assumed that the movie would be PG-13, I agreed with Wells' thoughts on the tracking. Now, I'm not so sure.

Random thoughts, feel free to discuss.

Scott Mendelson

Posted by Scott Mendelson at June 13, 2006 6:44 PM

comment #18

Dixon Steele says ...

What the hell is so bad about an opening in the low 20s with a comedy starring Jack Black.

It's this kind of thinking that is killing the movie biz today, Jeff.

And as long as I'm ranting, Delbomber & Nick: how can you really be fans of Napoleon Dynamite AND Jack Black and have no interest in seeing it? Bizarre....

Posted by Dixon Steele at June 13, 2006 7:17 PM

comment #19

Daniel says ...

I didn't much like Nacho, but then again, I detested Napoleon Dynamite as well. There's a limit to how much contrived, sloppy quirkiness I can tolerate if I'm not watching a Wes Anderson movie.

Regardless, I suspect Nacho will do acceptable theatrical business and then really make its coin on DVD, which is probably all Paramount wants.

As for Lake House, I HATED that one and I fear it may have "The Notebook"-style legs, just because it's the only movie of its kind out there. The only difference is that "The Notebook," for all of its melodrama and cheesiness was decently made and solidly acted throughout. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if The Lake House opens at 10 or 12 million, but suffers only small drops and makes 50 or 60, which would make it a solid little hit for WB...

Dan

Posted by Daniel at June 13, 2006 8:36 PM

comment #20

Doug says ...

With four new movies fighting for attention this week, I don't think "The Devil Wears Prada" is on anybody's radar yet. Tracking on films in the summer that aren't tentpoles doesn't seem to tell you much until the week the films open. Also, "Devil" will pick up some second choice grosses where "Superman Returns" sells out, something the tracking probably doesn't register.

Posted by Doug at June 14, 2006 4:18 AM

comment #21

zoey says ...

I guess I was the only one who liked the Prada trailer. I liked the idea of building up to the first sighting of Streep, since the mounting dread seems to be in keeping with what Vogue underlings actually feel when Anna swoops into the office.

Posted by zoey at June 14, 2006 6:18 AM

comment #22

Roger Moore says ...

Nacho is funny. It's vintage Black. It's Napoleon quirky.
That doesn't mean it'll clobber Cars, the G or R-rated (Fast-Furious) version.

Posted by Roger Moore at June 14, 2006 7:02 AM

comment #23

delbomber says ...

Dixon...

Napolean Dynamite was a low-budget film born from creativity and young ambition...Nacho Libre has the shinola sheen of a big studio production...it just doesn't look as original or fresh as Napolean.

Personally I thought Black was at his best before he became a household name...his schtick is starting to seem packaged and comfortable, and much less passionate than a few years ago when he was hungry and trying to make a name for himself.

Cheers.

Posted by delbomber at June 14, 2006 7:05 AM

comment #24

seminole says ...

I'm curious about the Superman tracking.

88 million for 5 days seems decent for a non-sequel movie, but I would expect the actual opening weekend boxoffice to be a bit higher since:

a) its Superman
b) Bryan Singer knows how to do comic book movies in a smart, entertaining way
c) the early reviews from the press screening have all been very positive

Are these tracking numbers really correct Jeff?

Posted by seminole at June 14, 2006 7:29 AM

comment #25

Chad Bixby says ...

Nacho is opening to at least $30 million this weekend. Families are going to come out and see it.

Posted by Chad Bixby at June 14, 2006 9:33 AM

comment #26

Anonymous says ...

tracking schmacking.

nobody knows nothing UNTIL THE FILM OPENS.

stop this tracking madness. it's just another marketing technique debasing what's left of the movie industry.

jeff, stop worrying about this stat game. you can't claim to care about film and then stress over the worst aspect of the industry. you're part of the problem now.

Posted by Anonymous at June 14, 2006 10:53 AM

comment #27

jason says ...

The Devil Wears Prada will be a success, everyone I know wants to see it, all the gays will rush out, girls, fans of the novel which was a success, the older crowd who dont' rush out to comic book movies...of course it won't open as huge as superman, but it is a solid movie, a friend of mine have seen it twice and she loves it...says it is perfect and solid from beginning to end..

Posted by jason at June 15, 2006 3:50 AM

comment #28

Lesterg says ...

I hope you're right, Jason. Even if I end up seeing both flicks - I'm buying tickets for Prada and walking into Supes.

Posted by Lesterg at June 15, 2006 6:00 AM

comment #29

JoJo says ...

Jason, do you work for Fox or something? Who do you know who wants to see it? It has no buzz whatsoever among my group of friends.

Plus, if every single person who bought the book buys a ticket for the movie, it'll make what? $10 - 12 million, tops?

Posted by JoJo at June 15, 2006 7:31 AM

comment #30

Steve C. says ...

It seems with PRADA, we have this year's entry for

"WORST. RELEASE DATE. EVER."

Last year, it was CINDARELLA MAN opening in June, when it should have at least been held until late July/early August if Universal wanted to be smart about their "counter-Summer" programming (or simply opened in the more traditional "Oscar-bait" fall slot).

Why Fox thought June was a great date for this film is beyond me, especially for a book that while a best seller never really penetrated the zeitgiest that much (beyond Manhattan). With both older viewers and 15-30 year old white women the prime dual target audiences, it would seem that picking a spring or fall release date that keeps it away from the clutter of summer blocbusters would have raised its profile the most. Not to mention, pick up viewers out of that demographic should it become talked about.

You have to wonder if Fox simply decided that $50-60M was the most they could hope to see and picking up SUPERMAN-is-Sold-Out business was the smart choice. As with X-3, they might simply get lucky as it opens 2 weeks after THE LAKE HOUSE and no other adult-skewing film is on the horizon until LADY IN THE WATER.

Posted by Steve C. at June 15, 2006 12:58 PM

comment #31