"Superman" Concerns

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I'm not saying Superman Returns is Son of Poseidon, far from it, but last Thursday's (6.15) NRG numbers are indicating a fairly good but less-than-phenomenal July 4th holiday opening. Definite interest was at 38%, but two weeks before opening a tentpole movie of this size should be closer to 50% at this stage. (Pirates of the Caribbean's definite interest was at 67%, and that's three weeks out.) Superman Returns had a first-choice rating of 9%, but at this stage of the game that number should be in the high teens. Warner Bros. has a nine-day window -- Wednesday, 6.28 to Thursday July 6 -- to make all the Superman dough they can before Pirates crashes through on Friday, July 7. Whatever Superman Returns does during its three-day weekend period (6.30 to 7.2) will be halved the following weekend. The domestic goal is to make $100 million over the first seven days, and then multiply that by at least 2.5 before heading off to DVD. Anything less will be considered a shortfall. I hear this, I hear this...and on some level it's not right. Superman Returns is a true heart movie -- Pirates, sight unseen, is a jackoff eye-mascara 16-ounce-can-of-Budweiser movie.

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Posted by Jeffrey Wells on June 18, 2006 at 9:35 AM

comment #1

Daniel Zelter says ...

Even with the gas crisis, people travel during the 4th of July weekend. If Warners really wanted to, they could have released the film next Friday. No one wants to see Click, except for some stupid fratboys. The studio has gotten too fat and lazy off all their Harry Potter money to make better marketing decisions.

Posted by Daniel Zelter at June 18, 2006 10:39 AM

comment #2

Daniel Zelter says ...

"jackoff eye-mascara 16-ounce-can-of-Budweiser movie"

Jeffrey, you know it's OK to chase every writing whim you have, right?

Also, I'm gay.

Posted by Daniel Zelter at June 18, 2006 10:48 AM

comment #3

Daniel Zelter says ...

"Also, I'm gay."

Anyone who pretends to be me certainly would seem that way.

Posted by Daniel Zelter at June 18, 2006 10:55 AM

comment #4

sandekat says ...

" Pirates, sight unseen, is a jackoff eye-mascara 16-ounce-can-of-Budweiser movie."

You despise when others prejudge movies before they are seen, but since this is another opportunity to fight with David Poland, you've made up your wee mind to hate Pirates....and its never enough for you just to hate the movie.....nope, ya gotta belittle anyone else who likes it (you know, us jackoff, beer swillers)
.......you are nothing if not predictable.....maybe you should consider a little mascara yourself.....you're in a bit of a rut.

Posted by sandekat at June 18, 2006 10:58 AM

comment #5

NYCBusybody says ...

Jeffrey got beat up by regular guys who drink Budweiser once.

Posted by NYCBusybody at June 18, 2006 11:22 AM

comment #6

NYCBusybody says ...

Or, with grammatical correctness, I should have said:

Once, Jeffrey got beat up by regular guys who drink Budweiser.

That's why his panties get in a bunch and he has to go to France to be around "men" like him.

Posted by NYCBusybody at June 18, 2006 11:23 AM

comment #7

Jeff says ...

Remember when the summers were big enough for more than one movie? Instead of 12 screens showing the latest Friday offering there were only 5 screens and they eached showed a different flick? Man, those were good times. There has to be room enough for more than one tentpole film. As for me - can't wait for Superman Returns....and will be going to see the Pirates do their own return.

Posted by Jeff at June 18, 2006 11:45 AM

comment #8

Rob says ...

: Pirates, sight unseen, is a jackoff eye-mascara 16-ounce-can-of-Budweiser movie.

Hahhah! Nice one, Jeff.

Posted by Rob at June 18, 2006 12:14 PM

comment #9

Zach says ...

SUPERMAN IS BACK! It will be big at the box office...tracking numbers aside...its SUPERMAN!!! Plus, the vast majority of early reviews have all been very positive, including one from Newsweek that Drudge Report linked to today.

Posted by Zach at June 18, 2006 12:23 PM

comment #10

Nicol D says ...

Pirates was a superbly crafted entertainment with a great performance by Johnny Depp. Too long by 20 minutes but very original by today's standards.

Superman does not know what it wants to be. Glad you liked it Jeff, but I can't get it up for this one.

I will see it, but as with many I am expecting to be Phantom Menaced all over again.

Singer's Superman is not my Superman and I expect many more to agree when it is seen in public. It's the film you want to like and convince yourself you should...but days later it's gonna leave a bad taste.

Too many people know that know. The thought of an 18 year old Lois with a kid has sullied many a people's view of this film and it's not just the Red Staters. A friend of mine is as blue as you and every time I mention that Supes knocked up an 18 year Lois he cringes.

This film was miscast from day one.

If I catch it later in July...that's okay.

Bring on Miami Vice!

Posted by Nicol D at June 18, 2006 1:12 PM

comment #11

delbomber says ...

There's a precedent for Wells hating the new Pirates...the first one was a soulless CGI orgy, why expect this one to be any better?

Posted by delbomber at June 18, 2006 1:33 PM

comment #12

nicol D says ...

Don't see how Pirates fits that description. I found it refreshingly old-school with a reliance on sets over CGI.

Again, hardly souless also. It reminded me of those old serials my father waxed about when I was a child.

Saw Pirates again recently and can't wait for the second one.

Posted by nicol D at June 18, 2006 1:36 PM

comment #13

tkc says ...

Isn't it possible, given the number of upside surprises from dismal tracking numbers this summer (eg. "X3", "The Breakup", "Nacho", etc.) that maybe tracking numbers aren't as infallible as we'd like to think they are? Or, more plausibly, that the moviegoer attention span is so short these days that asking someone what movie they're gonna see two weeks out isn't necessarily a sound predictor of what movie they're actually gonna see?

Posted by tkc at June 18, 2006 2:00 PM

comment #14

Edward says ...

Has Jeffrey posted one of these tracking numbers updates thus far this summer movie season that wasn't way off the mark the mark? I think Poseidon and Cars have been the only two that were close to accurate.

Posted by Edward at June 18, 2006 3:22 PM

comment #15

Roy "Griff" Griffis says ...

There's room enough in my heart to have some love for both Superman and POTC. I suspect that if Superman really is as good a Jeff feels, it will grow some legs. Look at XMen3. Yeah, it made a lot of money...at first. Then, word got around that it was, well, kind of stupid. We'll have to see what the word is on Superman.

Posted by Roy "Griff" Griffis at June 18, 2006 4:15 PM

comment #16

Jeffrey Wells says ...

Let me be the first to admit that most of the summer's tracking projections have been off or low. I've never said "bet the farm" on them. I just report them as best I can (i.e., with perspective) except sometimes it comes out really wrong anyway...like with those "Break-Up" numbers that suggested it was toast. I've given up all hope that "Pirates" will under-perform, but I think -- I hope -- that the "Suoperman Returns" grosses will be higher than indicated by Thursday's tracking.

Posted by Jeffrey Wells at June 18, 2006 5:00 PM

comment #17

Andrew says ...

The trades just weighed in with their reviews. Both Variety and the Reporter loved it.

I knew it had to be good once Poland slammed it.

Posted by Andrew at June 18, 2006 5:33 PM

comment #18

Jeffrey Wells says ...

Hooray!

Posted by Jeffrey Wells at June 18, 2006 5:37 PM

comment #19

Daniel Zelter says ...

Nicol: Um, Kate Bosworth's 23...And I thought red staters don't care if women get knocked up(or raped, for that matter) when they're 18.

Posted by Daniel Zelter at June 18, 2006 10:32 PM

comment #20

delbomber says ...

Daniel...you have people impersonating you because you paint the perfect caricature of a paranoid, militant liberal. Start making sense and abandon these inane outburts...you have it in you, you've posted a few actual pertinent comments.

Posted by delbomber at June 19, 2006 10:58 AM

comment #21

Matt says ...

I don't see how Superman Returns could fail to make a mint in its opening week. It's Superman for Chrissakes! POTC2 will no doubt dent its takings the following week but surely the summer is big enough for two blockbusters. Nobody really knows whether SR will achieve X3 figures, Titanic figures or somewhere in between. But I reckon there is no way that it will take less than $250 million in the US!

Posted by Matt at June 19, 2006 11:45 AM

comment #22

christian says ...

Why Jeffrey keeps beating this dead tracking horse is beyond me. Nobody Knows Nothin'. Jeff and others devoted a lot of wasted space and thought to predicting the audience's interest in The Break-Up based on these statistically questionable research groups.

Repeat: Nobody Knows...

Posted by christian at June 19, 2006 2:00 PM

comment #23