The Break-Up is a bigger hit than expected, so let's hear it for Universal's Big Con marketing! The Vince Vaughn-Jennifer Aniston drama-with-laughs is projected to do about $37 million this weekend, having done about $13.7 million last night. It'll be off about 50% to 60% next week once the word gets out that it's not hah-hah funny, but that was the plan all along. X-Men 3 is off radically. Last night's take was down 77% from the Friday before...a huge drop. The experts are projecting $34.9 million for the weekend, which will amount to roughly a 60% to 65% drop from last weekend's haul. (People may have liked it okay but weren't through the roof about it.) Over The Edge is looking at an $18 million dollar weekend, off about 32% from last weekend. The DaVinci Code is looking at roughly $15 million, down about 53% from last weekend. Mission: Impossible III will take in about $4.3 million, off 40%. Its expected to eek out $125 to 130 million total. It's basically dead at this stage and a fairly big disappointment. Poseidon will take in about $3 million, off 45%...a disaster with an expected cume in the low 50s.

<< previous | next >>

Posted by Jeffrey Wells on June 3, 2006 at 7:54 AM

comment #1

Mathew says ...

Well the young male crowd likes Vaughn and its basically a date flick (or an anti-date flick depending on your perspective) so I can see how it would open big.

Posted by Mathew at June 3, 2006 8:34 AM

comment #2

JD says ...

I saw The Break-Up with a full theatre last night and people were laughing throughout. Honestly, after seeing the movie, I don't think the marketing is a con at all. Yes, the movie has its serious stretches, but it's basically a really strong Hollywood romantic comedy with a little less comedy than usual. But I honestly felt there were zingers in all those arguments (the Tanya Harding line got particularly big laughs in my screening).

If anything, my problem with the movie was the lame attempt to draw mean-spirited humour from Aniston's super-annoying co-workers. Very irritating stuff. And the final scene was a train wreck that reeked of too-many-cooks-in-the-kitchen and indecisiveness. The filmmakers don't seem to know what the purpose of that scene is, as they're trying to respond to 15 different complaints they got at test screenings and the various solutions contradict one another. Still, I think the critics are being unfairly harsh and, overall, the marketing of this movie was more accurate than critics -- who generally see these movies at press screenings -- are indicating.

Posted by JD at June 3, 2006 8:37 AM

comment #3

theVisitor says ...

I agree with JD. The critics don't always know what they're talking about.

Posted by theVisitor at June 3, 2006 9:27 AM

comment #4

Mark says ...

That's huge. It must God's way of apologizing to Ms. Aniston for the droves that piled in to Mr. and Mrs. Smith.

Posted by Mark at June 3, 2006 9:32 AM

comment #5

bn says ...

The Tonya Harding line killed at Kip's Bay theater in NYC last night. Multiple sellouts. When flick ended, the four girls sitting in front of me were all smiles, and projected the sequel will be "The Make Up." A girl I was with pointed out several couples who were kissing, all full of affection, when the lights came up. The only neg I heard was a couple of remarks about Jennifer being "too tan." Compared to all the terrible terrible terrible romantic coms, this is bordering on "My Best Friend's Wedding."

Posted by bn at June 3, 2006 10:04 AM

comment #6

Chuck Wagon says ...

Did anyone catch Vaughn on "Charlie Rose" last night? Peter Travers interviewed him about "The Break-Up," as well as his previous films. From what I gathered, Vaughn is actually a pretty intelligent guy, not at all like his frat-type characters, a professional phase that seemed to surprise Vaughn because he'd previously been involved in a number of "serious" projects. He spoke frankly about the machinations within Hollywood and his desires to continue producing films. It sounded like the idea for "The Break-Up" was originally his, and though I haven't seen it, I can only presume that the film didn't quite gel the why he originally intended, given his explainations for certain plot points and story themes.

Posted by Chuck Wagon at June 3, 2006 10:10 AM

comment #7

Dixon Steele says ...

One heaping dish of crow should be served to you this morning, Jeff.

All your negative shit couldn't kill the weekend (not that you wanted to, of course).

Sure, next weekend will tell the tale, as far as word-of-mouth, etc. goes.

My problem with your attitude is that, like other media types, you take a real pleasure (at times) in others failures, and frankly...it sucks.

The movie biz is in enough trouble. Why take such glee in dancing on its grave? Without it, you wouldn't have a blog!

Posted by Dixon Steele at June 3, 2006 10:29 AM

comment #8

Peyton says ...

Hey Jeff,

When do we get to see you eat your words about how you were wrong about the tracking. Or do we not remember when you said this thing was dead a few weeks ago?

Posted by Peyton at June 3, 2006 11:18 AM

comment #9

Amy says ...

Good, Good!

Posted by Amy at June 3, 2006 11:25 AM

comment #10

Daniel Zelter says ...

Ugh. Vaughn was compared to Adam Sandler at Box Office Prophets. I know they mean in terms of drawing power, but the guy sucks.

Posted by Daniel Zelter at June 3, 2006 11:35 AM

comment #11

X missed the spot says ...

No surprise about X-Men's huge drop. Bad comic book films don't have legs. It'll be completely dead by next weekend. But it still rode it's four days in the sun right into the success column. And though "The Break-Up's" opening was a nice surprise for the studio, "OUR MOVIE DIDN'T FLOP!" a 35-40 mil opening in summer isn't big news. The film obviously has many detractors and word of mouth probably won't carry it. $100 mil total? Certainly not bad, but on the whole it's yet another non-break out hit. Da Vinci and X3 are sure fire $200 million hits so far, but they're such flawed endeavours, does anyone beside the producers care? The summer movie season chugs along in unspectacular fashion. Maybe someone should release something good.

Posted by X missed the spot at June 3, 2006 12:52 PM

comment #12

lc says ...

Maybe all movies should have low expectations then when the movie does better than expected the production company and the media can say it's a hit.

Posted by lc at June 3, 2006 1:57 PM

comment #13

jane says ...

This is a huge # for a movie with a budget of
45-50 mil and not even originally planned as a
summer release.
I'm not saying its Vaughn's best work but the
guy seems pretty grounded and articulate in interviews - if you can check out the peter travers interview (charlie Rose PBS ).
This will definetly help Aniston as well

Posted by jane at June 3, 2006 2:02 PM

comment #14

James says ...

Even though these shitty movies (Da Vinci, X3, and Break-up) are making big bucks, it will hurt the studios in the end. The movie buying public can only take so many flops before they throw up their arms and stop coming to the theater for good.

Get ready, Wells. Now, I will wait for a batch of new 2006-07 articles about the never-ending decline of the box office. Wow, what a surprise. I can feel the pain in each of the screenings I have attended for these terrible movies.

Posted by James at June 3, 2006 8:46 PM

comment #15

Sara Michelle says ...

Am I though only one who caught the freakish similarity between THE BREAK-UP and Robert Greenwald's 1997 comedy-drama BREAKING UP with Russell Crowe and Salma Hayek? I liked this newer one much more, but, well, at times I couldn't help but wonder if I was watching the exact same movie.

Posted by Sara Michelle at June 4, 2006 3:11 PM

comment #16

David Brownstein says ...

Saw the film saturday nite to a packed house in marina del rey last nite. Crowd of 20, 30 and 40 somethings laughed out loud first 20 minutes then held breathe in gasp when things turned serious. this back and forth continued and the audience seemed in the palm of the filmmakers hands. a few people applauded at end. crowd seemed satisfied, moved. not ecstatic, but sufficiently entertained and engaged.

Posted by David Brownstein at June 4, 2006 5:03 PM

comment #17

Mel Valentin says ...

Folks, Jeff has nothing to apologize for. He's stated clearly that he was going by tracking for the numbers from people he respected. He didn't pull those numbers out of his @ss.

As for "The Break-Up," as a semi-pro (I write reviews for several websites, meaning $ + advance screenings), I found it stunningly mediocre. Unlikeable characters, a shortage of gags or jokes (even before it turns "serious") and one too many gay stereotypes. It may have done well this weekend, but I don't expect it'll have legs, nor will it be remembered even five or six months from now.

And yes, it's been a mediocre summer so far. What can we expect from Hollywood in the next few weeks that stands of chance of being a step above mediocre? Hard to see anything, with the exception of "Superman Returns" (and there I have plenty of reservations, but I'm willing to give Singer the benefit of the doubt, for now).

Posted by Mel Valentin at June 5, 2006 1:28 AM

comment #18

George says ...

Confused I am.

I saw The Break-up this weekend and I really just don't understand why critics have lined up against this movie in the way and numbers they have. I'm not even sure I agree that this movie was mis-marketed or marketed like Wedding Crashers. Since when did movie critics need to be spoon-fed their cinema and since when did they care about the marketing of a film?

Perhaps my hedged expectations had something to do with how much I enjoyed this movie, but something here feels amiss. My prediction is that the main stream press is going to be in a different zip code on this one the same way they were with The Da Vinci Code (did not see it). I believe this movie will benefit from positive word of mouth and ultimately be a big boost to the careers of both stars.

This movie employs a device - like ex's cohabitating in a jointly owned condo - and at first exploits it for contrived laughs and then surprisingly transitions into something more resonant. It isn't earth shattering in its insights in the relationships or the genetic emotional coding of women and men, but it certainly stakes out a ground and wins it. In fact, the ending is the best part of it if you ask me. The irony is that the press goes after this film for not being a date movie (or RomCom - which ever is your preference) which is a genre which is better left bleeding on the floor.

Posted by George at June 5, 2006 9:03 AM