Pirates 2 did just shy of $44 million on Saturday. Add that to Friday's increased estimate of $55 million (that $52.8 million estimate I ran yesterday has since been adjusted) and you're looking at just under $100 million after two full days. What will happen today (Sunday, 7.9)? The ballpark figure will almost certainly be somewhere between $35 and $40 million (Sundays are always a bit weaker than Saturdays) so the three-day total...well, do the math. (The other guys are predicting $32 million and change.) Superman Returns took in a piddly $8.4 million yesterday, and is expected to wind up with about $22,800,000 by late tonight. Next week it'll wind up with $13 or $14 million and that'll be that. (But watch the IMAX screenings hang in there.) The Devil Wears Prada is expected to end up with about $15,069,000 by late tonight. And you don't care that much about the rest.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on July 9, 2006 at 8:45 AM
comment #1
Mathew says ...
Superman Returns is basically suffering the same fate as King Kong. An over-bloated film that the mass audience wasn't too excited to see. I really think Superman Returns, like King Kong should of been a $100 million, 90 minute romp. The 'savior' theme is playing flat to audiences and the kid is too under utilized to make anyone care.
Meanwhile, I really think POTC is all about Johnny Depp. It's the Leo 'Titanic' phenomenon, really. People are flocking to this film not because of the story or even the action but because of a performance. It shows how important casting really is. The producers of Kong and SR should take note.
Posted by Mathew at July 9, 2006 9:20 AM
comment #2
NYCBusybody says ...
Yes, it's largely about Depp, and I was thinking last night...isn't it odd to think that Depp's casual decision to play this guy in such an odd manner may end up being literally a $2 Billion dollar decision?
Posted by NYCBusybody at July 9, 2006 9:22 AM
comment #3
Bart Smith says ...
How much would movies like SUPERMAN RETURNS and KING KONG benefited from having a heavy-handed producer like Jerry Bruckheimer?
I know the guy gets a lot of hate from the cinema elite, but he has a pretty good track record for making movies that people want to see.
Posted by Bart Smith at July 9, 2006 9:26 AM
comment #4
NYCBusybody says ...
I had the EXACT same problems with both King Kong and Superman Returns.
They both felt fantastically overwrought, far too serious and weighty when there just wasn't anything there. This is a superhero and a giant ape. Give it a rest.
Posted by NYCBusybody at July 9, 2006 9:29 AM
comment #5
BNick says ...
NYC,
I totally agree and couldn't have said it better myself. I hope that Captain Jack actually ends up giving more actors the freedom to take chances with their roles. Perhaps studios will be more likely to set aside their conservative tendencies the way Disney eventually did when they let Depp stammer his way through these flicks.
....but I'm not holding my breath. I can't think of another instance where a prominent actor highjacked a "tent pole" film so successfully, and there's probably a reason for that.
Posted by BNick at July 9, 2006 9:29 AM
comment #6
Stu says ...
Can anyone else remember another three part film series from recent history that began as just a single film with a limited notion of a 2nd and 3rd film, and then when said two sequels were made, they were essentially one film split in the middle with a big cliffhanger ending with a main character left in jeopardy, and all of his friends unsure wht the hell they were going to do?? Anyone? Anyone...
I just hope this one turns out better than the Matrix sequels...
And frankly...I am with Jeff, this one was flat...and Superman was FAR better...but a nod to the previous poster, this one was all about Depp's performance...which was just less novel this time around...
Posted by Stu at July 9, 2006 9:33 AM
comment #7
Bart Smith says ...
People want to bring up comparisons to THE MATRIX trilogy, but aside from the similarities regarding the production and distribution strategy, I don't see how they're anything alike.
Posted by Bart Smith at July 9, 2006 9:36 AM
comment #8
NYCBusybody says ...
I find these films much more similar in spirit and appeal to the Indiana Jones trilogy.
Posted by NYCBusybody at July 9, 2006 9:38 AM
comment #9
NYCBusybody says ...
What does everyone think about the impact of the large, positive press Pirates 2 will get this week because of shattering box-office records? Will it keep the second weekend drop lower than usual, or has everyone really made up an opinion on whether to see it or not already?
Posted by NYCBusybody at July 9, 2006 9:39 AM
comment #10
Mathew says ...
I think a good example of SR's overwrought-ness is the Marlon Brando stuff. I was really looking forward to it his scenes. However what I saw on screen was mezzo-mezzo (sorry but that's one of my favorite Wells adverbs). It's like they went to all this extra work behind the scenes and it literally didn't matter in the context of things. They might as well have saved a few million and had somebody impersonate Brando. I don't know, it's frustrating how much money Hollywood squanders sometimes.
Posted by Mathew at July 9, 2006 9:40 AM
comment #11
NYCBusybody says ...
Wow, Cars hasn't been dropping much at all. 29.3% this weekend. I hadn't realized it was holding up so well.
Posted by NYCBusybody at July 9, 2006 9:47 AM
comment #12
Bart Smith says ...
Deadline Hollywood Daily is talking up CARS' chances of passing X-MEN 3 and giving Disney the two top grossing movies of the summer (and maybe even the year). I think it could be close, but there's too much in the way of competition coming up.
Posted by Bart Smith at July 9, 2006 9:51 AM
comment #13
Telemachos says ...
It's Disney's summer. Cars will pass X3 and Disney will have the #1 and #2 films.
I think PIRATES is probably still frontloaded (any huge opener is, these days), so a 50% drop next weekend is probably a given. However, a drop like that will still mean its second weekend will be larger than Superman's first. With such a large opening, PIRATES won't have nearly the legs of the original.... but it'll still have better ones than X3. I'd say $350 million is probably the low-end of what it could make now, and odds are pretty good it'll hit $400 million.
Posted by Telemachos at July 9, 2006 9:52 AM
comment #14
Telemachos says ...
Damn, beaten by a minute.
Posted by Telemachos at July 9, 2006 9:53 AM
comment #15
Mathew says ...
"Wow, Cars hasn't been dropping much at all. 29.3% this weekend. I hadn't realized it was holding up so well."
Word of mouth and repeat business. Cars is a pretty good film and whatever Wells might say, the emotional depth works better here than in Superman. It's a little long too but works because of the excellent characterizations (best performance Larry the Cable Guy will ever deliver), simple but engaging story and glorious Pixar animation.
Posted by Mathew at July 9, 2006 10:05 AM
comment #16
NYCBusybody says ...
I agree. The press wrote it off as a red-state movie, and turned up their noses at it.
Posted by NYCBusybody at July 9, 2006 10:07 AM
comment #17
Bart Smith says ...
And it doesn't hurt that CARS is really the only option as far as G or PG movies right now.
Posted by Bart Smith at July 9, 2006 10:08 AM
comment #18
Dixon Steele says ...
Finally saw SR last night and have to say...disappointed. Not a bad picture by any means, just nothing special (aside from a couple of set pieces) to recommend it. The first act in Smallville plays like a remake of the first act of the original, right down to the theme music and young Clark bouncing all over the place.
And call me Old School, but I missed Reeves, Kidder, Hackman, etc. And I don't care what Warners spent on it, there will NOT be another one.
If you're going to see it, you probably should in IMAX (I didn't) to give it that extra pop.
Got to the multiplex early and hung out watching the first half hour of Praire Home Companion. I'm an Altman fan, but...what a snooze. Great cast, but only for Keillor fanatics (I'm not one).
Posted by Dixon Steele at July 9, 2006 10:18 AM
comment #19
Mathew says ...
"I agree. The press wrote it off as a red-state movie, and turned up their noses at it."
True. Meanwhile Brian Singer made a blue state Superman movie (Truth, Justice, all that stuff...ugh) and it's faltering.
Posted by Mathew at July 9, 2006 10:31 AM
comment #20
NYCBusybody says ...
But I don't think it's that simple. I don't see why Cars HAD to be only a red-state movie, and let's face it...middle-America is far more interested in a fey, swishy, rock-star Pirate then in Mr. Masculine America Superman. These things aren't as black and white as the elite press would havev you believe.
Posted by NYCBusybody at July 9, 2006 10:34 AM
comment #21
Michael C says ...
All this examination of Superman vs. Pirates is getting faintly ridiculous. Now that "Red State/Blue state is getting thrown around, please, spare me. It really is very simple. The marketing of Pirates kicked Superman's ass.
Superman promised grandeur and reverance for a classic character. I never get much hint of action or fun coming off the film. I did get the arrogant impression that the marketers thought 90% of their work was done when the put the SUPERMAN on their poster.
Pirates is raking in the bucks for the same reason that Shrek 2 sits near the top of the all-time box office chart. It promised fun, fun, fun, and more fun. It didn't promise anybody it would be a great or even a very good film, but it did promise everybody that it would be worth the trip to the theater. Case closed.
As for which is better, don't ask me. I'm waiting for Litte Miss Sunshine.
Posted by Michael C at July 9, 2006 11:30 AM
comment #22
NYCBusybody says ...
Nobody did ask you, Michael C, nor were they planning to, I'm sure.
Posted by NYCBusybody at July 9, 2006 11:32 AM
comment #23
NYCBusybody says ...
Little Miss Sunshine looks cookie-cutter to me, too clever and "quirky" for it's own good.
Give me Talladega Nights any day.
Posted by NYCBusybody at July 9, 2006 11:35 AM
comment #24
Todd says ...
No matter what you all say it's still Just a pirate movie. As for the Box Office take right now Gay Pirates are in, not sort of Gay Superman.
Posted by Todd at July 9, 2006 11:56 AM
comment #25
Mathew says ...
I'm not drawing a line saying this is 'blue' and this is 'red'. It's the mentality that goes into the making of the picture. It's as simple as going in with the attitude of "this is going to be an entertaining movie". John Lasseter gets it. I nor many others were wanting an overtly Americanized Superman. I think Bruckheimer would of gone this route and made something patronizing. However I wanted something engaging and fun. Do you think many kids really enjoyed Superman Returns? In my theater they were restless throughout. SR clearly took itself too seriously.
Posted by Mathew at July 9, 2006 12:00 PM
comment #26
mike says ...
I agree with the red state/blue state drawing the line. Is Cars red state because of NASCAR?
I think it boils down to time. People were waiting for 3 years for a return of a pirate movie they embraced so long ago.
Not too manay people were clamoring for a return to Superman circa 1981. Which is what Superman Returns IS. Just a very expensive return is all.
both films are designed to make large amounts of money. Both will eventually succeed.
Let's be honest, Superman Returns made $20 million in three days. That's something none of us posting ehre will ever achieve.
Posted by mike at July 9, 2006 3:27 PM
comment #27
Scott Mendelson says ...
No essay, just random thoughts, almost free association...
Wow, Disney found an extra $3 million in relation to ShowbizData's Saturday estimate and Box Office Mojo's Saturday estimate... just enough for Pirates to cross $100 million in two days... imagine that.
All kidding aside, I'm curious as to what the numbers of tickets sold and the like are in relation to Spider-Man and Star Wars III. The $115 million Spider-Man number, adjusted for inflation, comes out to about $127 million, which is pretty darn close to the new number (although I agree with others above who think that Disney intentionally low-balled the Sunday numbers to make themselves look better later).
As some have said here (also), there is a ceiling in terms of tickets sold and seats filled. I'm also curious if anyone has capacity levels for Pirates 2. Despite the similar per-screen averages and inflation-related numbers in regards to Star Wars III and Spider-Man, I read and heard of far more reports of mass-sellouts all around the country. I have a friend who spent an hour on Friday in line to buy tickets for Sunday. Point being, I haven't read about this level of sellouts in a long, long time.
As for Shrek 2, there was so little buzz that I almost thought that the film was going to flop. Especially after it earned a mere $11 million on its opening day (about on par with Pokemon The Movie). Of course, most of the country didn't know it was out on Wednesday, forever screwing up pattern analysis for Wendesday openings for everyone.
The amazing thing is, despite these giant numbers, in all liklihood, the film won't surpass the four day total of $159 million of Star Wars III (it'll have to set a Monday record of $27 million to do it).
The real long-term test will be next weekend (in an equally shocking story, happy people smile more). Word of mouth hasn't been very useful as the word is all around. No one really hates it, but a lot of mild satisfaction (or mild dislike). Of note is the effectiveness of the last 10 minutes (SPOILERS AHOY!)...
Even people who were less than pleased with the whole film were completely riveted by the last 10 minutes, concluding with rapturous applause when Barbosa showed up (which I found odd... I didn't think he was that memorable to a teenage audience and I can't imagine anyone was clapping for 'that guy from Shine!'). Also, during that very lost shot, my last thought was 'wow, Barbosa sure looks cleaner, more colorful, and shinier than the other characters.' Maybe he showered and shaved after coming back from 'World's End'.
Point being, people left the theatre revved up which could cloud their judgement of the rest of the film. It was certainly a more satisfying cliffhanger than The Matrix Reloaded (although I found that to be a better film), even if it falls short of my all-time favorite cliffhanger: Back To The Future 2 (also a lesser film, but I still get chills when the delivery guy shows up in the rain).
I'm curious as to what word of mouth of fellow readers and their peers have been. I'll save my thoughts for another post as this is already too long.
Scott Mendelson
Posted by Scott Mendelson at July 9, 2006 3:37 PM
comment #28
Bart Smith says ...
"I'm curious as to what the numbers of tickets sold and the like are in relation to Spider-Man and Star Wars III."
VARIETY is reporting that it set the record for tickets sold in a weekend with just under 20 million -- 200,000 more than SPIDER-MAN.
"The amazing thing is, despite these giant numbers, in all liklihood, the film won't surpass the four day total of $159 million of Star Wars III (it'll have to set a Monday record of $27 million to do it)."
It's at something of a disadvantage in regards to that record having opened on a Friday as opposed to SITH's Thursday opening. A Thursday-Sunday opening frame is more conducive to overall business than a (non-holiday) Friday-Monday frame.
Posted by Bart Smith at July 9, 2006 4:42 PM
comment #29
tkc says ...
For what it's worth, there is a more favorable comparison for POTC2 than the Matrix sequels -- "The Empire Strikes Back", which (spoiler alert) POTC2 resembles far more than it does "The Matrix Reloaded". (Think about it: Our bland hero finally finds his long-lost father; a love triangle develops between the bland hero, the interesting hero, and the feisty heroine; and the interesting hero is left for dead -- either inside carbonite or a giant squid. Whether POTC3 opens with Keira Knightley rescuing Johnny Depp while wearing a bikini remains to be seen.)
Posted by tkc at July 9, 2006 6:09 PM
comment #30
Rich says ...
POTC:DMC made $133 mil. in three days and the average audience reaction was cheering.
I was at Walt Disney World on Saturday. I am not exaggerating when I say most of the park was deserted because 80% of the crowd was waiting in line over two hours to see the new Jack Sparrow robot at POTC: The Ride. Trust me when I say you don't walk straight into the Haunted Mansion at noon on a Saturday in July unless there is a hurricane on its way or unless something has touched a deep cultural nerve.
Despite all the negative reviews from "serious" critics and article after article after article on this site, POTC: DMC is likely to end up in the top five box office grossers of all time, maybe by the end of July. I know Jeff didn't promise to move to France if that happened, but his faith in humanity must be shaken like never before. As Cesar Romero used to say on Batman, "Delicious!"
Posted by Rich at July 9, 2006 6:33 PM
comment #31
Anonymous says ...
"Superman Returns is basically suffering the same fate as King Kong. An over-bloated film that the mass audience wasn't too excited to see. I really think Superman Returns, like King Kong should of been a $100 million, 90 minute romp."
What the hell are you talking about?????? King Kong made $549,216,896, even if it cost 50 million to promote and 20 million to distrubute its still ended up making a 300 million dollar profit.
It truely sad now when movies are doing hugh numbers but are still not enough because they don't shatter records,
Superman returns numbers are actually better than King Kong, the film is in execllent standing so shut up already.
Posted by Anonymous at July 10, 2006 7:59 AM
comment #32
Dixon Steele says ...
1. I agree with the above poster that it's sad (but truly, not truely) that huge numbers are no longer enough because they don't shatter records.
2. There is no way in hell that King Kong made a 300 million profit.
Posted by Dixon Steele at July 10, 2006 8:13 AM
comment #33
Anonymous says ...
Check the numbers yourself
it cleared nearly 550 million and this figure does not account for DVD sales and television rights. None of the investors on this movie lost any sleep, trust me.
Posted by Anonymous at July 10, 2006 8:27 AM
comment #34
Chris says ...
Please don't call SR and KK overbloated without throwing POTC in that category, too. ... It's just as unnecessarily self-important and long-winded as those two films.
POTC would have been much more tolerable at 1:50
Posted by Chris at July 10, 2006 9:35 AM