Explaining the Oscar thing

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"Riddle me this," David Poland wrote this morning. "Is a 20 minute clip, some free hors d'oeuvres, a handshake and a smile from a singing diva, and a Japanese trailer really enough to lock up the Oscar season for people now?" The implication seems to be that it's too early to make a call about Flags of Our Fathers and Dreamgirls looking like the hottest Best Picture choices. That or he thinks I'm full of gas for joining Tom O'Neill in saying so. Or something like that. I'm not quite sure.

Let's just repeat the Flags basics without comment: (a) I've read the script of Flags of my Fathers and have a pretty good idea of how it unfolds. (b) Plus the Japanese trailer -- the desaturated color, the texture of it, the versimilitude, the moody whatever -- drove it in deeper. I also said in yesterday's piece that (c) Flags might not stand up on its own (one never knows anything, it hasn't been seen) but it's safe to say that this latest Eastwood/Haggis collaboration will most likely have some measure of poetic refinement...a certain spareness and sureness of touch, etc.

And then you need to add three things to this: (d) the personal-anguish-of- soldiers factor, which will likely resonate in the hinterlands among the support-our-troops-in-Iraq contingent, (e) the big-scale tribute to the World War II generation is going to sink in big with boomer-aged Academy members, and (f) the Flags-plus-Letters from Iwo Jima factor is going to impress the hell out of Academy members for the same reason that actors who gain weight or put on fake noses or speak in exotic accents always tend to get Oscar-nominated -- because the effort that went into it is so obvious, and because no director has ever done something like this before.

I said in the piece also that something else might pop through between now and December 31st ("something always does") and so on.

And if Poland has yet to be convinced that Dreamgirls is probably the other leading Best Picture contender at this stage, then he really does need a doctor-supervised schedule of daily enemas.

Oh, I'm sorry...that's getting personal. But of course, Poland started it by posting this cleverly done HE banner with Quentin Crisp in place of myself. Poland is making a point about personal proclivities ouside the bounds of journalistic endeavor. Are you noticing the sophistication levels here? This is really mature, stirring, erudite stuff. Welcome to the fucking sandbox.

Just to continue the foolery, here's a Wells-vs.-Poland q & a thing on DVD Newsroom.

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Posted by Jeffrey Wells on August 16, 2006 at 12:21 PM

comment #1

Noah says ...

Jeff, you and Dave are always lobbing missle back and forth at each other. You're like Israel and Palestine except I doubt you two even know why you disagree. But he's the one in the right here. You are saying Flags of our Fathers and Dreamgirls are the movies to beat based on trailers and twenty minute clips, etc. It's fucking August! And you're already telling me who is going to win Best Supporting Actress, definitively. Maybe you're right, but you are jumping the gun on this. It's fine to give me a list of possible films or actors that are probably going to be in the running like you do in the Oscar Balloon, but don't tell me just because you've read a script you know what's going to win Best Picture. That's completely discounting the other hundred or so movies that are going to be released between now and the end of the year. I understand this site is built around your opinions, but you should really think a little harder before posting that because you have a little bit of knowledge about two films and none of the others that those two films are the only ones to beat at the Oscars.

Posted by Noah at August 16, 2006 1:44 PM

comment #2

FilmTurtle says ...

Oh, c'mon already. People bitch about Oscar prognosticating every damned year. It's a broken record. It's NEVER too early to chew the fat about Oscar nominations. And as Jeffrey has so often pointed out, summer is when the campaigns are firmed up.

Based on past history with Academy voters and how films look on paper -- pedigree, script, trailers, preview clips -- it's easy enough to formulate a guess. That's part of what columns like this one DO for pete's sake. Jeff or Tom O'Neil aren't saying "Flags" or "Dreamgirls" will absolutely, without-a-doubt be nommed; they're making an educated guess. Pry that stick out of your butts already (you, too, Poland).

Posted by FilmTurtle at August 16, 2006 2:05 PM

comment #3

tholl-yung says ...

I bring you an English translation of the Japanese parts of the trailer. I know I posted this elsewhere -- I wanted to try to find the first English language press release, err, link. Things don't come from nowhere, especially not Japan -- you gotta keep your ear to the ground.

Her name is Selina, rank Boot Camp. Joined: 02 May 2006, Posts: 2. Posted: Mon Aug 14, 2006 11:04 pm Post subject: Official Japanese Trailer ONLINE!

Voodoo65, from Tokyo, rank Private First Class adds that it aired on Japanese tv a day earlier, and provides English translation.

http://www.the-pacific-war.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=947

Posted by tholl-yung at August 16, 2006 2:08 PM

comment #4

machete says ...

Jeff, gotta be honest, coming from the same basic facts (script, that trailer, etc) I really think these films look terrible. We live in a movie culture now where trailers seem to be very important. I've been watching trailers online for years. I know exactly how a movie will play out according to the way the trailer is cut (unfortunately). And I know that I will dislike both of these films. Of course, that doesn't mean that the Academy will look far enough to find the true "best picture" of the year. So you may be right.

Posted by machete at August 16, 2006 2:09 PM

comment #5

tholl-yung says ...

Suki Jonze, who knew August could be so much fun, I especially liked your HE link For The Reality Driven. These guys bitch, bitch, bitch, but they have the best gigs in town, you were well inspired.

Posted by tholl-yung at August 16, 2006 3:45 PM

comment #6

SpamDooley says ...

Jeff
This all happened because you censored my comments about the Oscars.
Be careful in the future who you censor.
David Poland is my personal Yahweh.

I am Spam Dooley and I use Garnier Fructis!

Posted by SpamDooley at August 16, 2006 3:57 PM

comment #7

Cadavra says ...

This is absurd. Everyone knows the picture to beat for the Oscar is BENCHWARMERS.

Posted by Cadavra at August 16, 2006 4:52 PM

comment #8

lesterg says ...

Maybe I'm retarded (likely) but I don't even get the Quintin Crisp thing.

Posted by lesterg at August 16, 2006 6:19 PM

comment #9

tholl-yung says ...

The updo hair style, the sneer, the wicked tongue.

Posted by tholl-yung at August 16, 2006 6:57 PM

comment #10

nemo says ...

Hey Jeff, love your new look.

Posted by nemo at August 16, 2006 7:07 PM

comment #11

jeffmcm says ...

'Rabbi complex' sums David Poland up to a t, the man is a smug know-it-all. These two guys really do deserve each other, though.

Posted by jeffmcm at August 16, 2006 7:28 PM

comment #12

le corbeau says ...

"The updo hair style, the sneer, the wicked tongue."

And they were both played by John Hurt.

Oscars-- on the one hand, remember, Jeff DID predict (with an apt sense of dread) that Phantom of the Opera would probably win a couple of years ago.

On the other hand... it'd be one thing if you could think of ten other possible candidates, and usually something that looks so promising stiffs on the way (I remember Oscar talk for Jarhead last year), but really, what else is there besides these two and the two 9-11 movies at this point? I don't think Jeff's going out on much of a limb with this prediction.

Posted by le corbeau at August 16, 2006 8:26 PM

comment #13

Pinko Punko says ...

Let me put it this way- I don't want to hear it here about Poland- I don't even read that guy. Here's why- he's a much worse speller than Wells. Wells will misspell the odd name here and there, while Poland screws up easy names and normal words. I don't care if you know how to spell, but he's got a big enough empire over there it comes of as massively unprofessional. Plus he's kind of a cobag. The other thing is that if you want to use the "can't take a joke" jibe on people, you better be able to take them yourself, even if the jokester is a chumpwagon.

Posted by Pinko Punko at August 16, 2006 9:11 PM

comment #14

postalchris says ...

I wonder... Is it possible that Jeff is being harmlessly provocative, making wildly speculative predictions about matters of essentially zero importance in order to engage and entertain his audience? Is it possible this is not worth a second's thought much less outrage?

Also, and I hesitate to say this because it would be ugly and contemptible, is David Poland trying to imply that Jeff is gay?

Posted by postalchris at August 16, 2006 10:58 PM

comment #15

jeffmcm says ...

Poland is only trying to imply that Wells is old, nothing more, nothing less. Gay is just a pleasant side effect for him, especially since he has been the butt of many gay jokes since he started appearing on iklipz.

Posted by jeffmcm at August 17, 2006 12:53 AM

comment #16

EDouglas says ...

I need to find new blogs to read... I go to Poland's and he's talking about you, I come here and you're talking about him. If you two can't co-exist on the same World Wide Web, can't you both just ignore each other? Or at least stop commenting on the other's comments on your own blog? Or just comment when you agree with each other because that would be a rare and special occasion.

Posted by EDouglas at August 17, 2006 4:03 AM

comment #17