Tracking
Casino Royale is tracking very well (90, 44, 36) and will do...oh, $30 million? Happy Feet (82. 44,19) is going to do even more, about $45 million. Nobody cares that much about Let's Go To Prison (82, 44,19) or Deck the Halls (41, 24,3) but Tony Scott's Deja Vu (82, 43, 9) is going to do nicely when it opens on 11.22. And Bobby (limited on 11.17) looks pretty good. So far The Nativity Story isn't tracking (28, 26), although it has two weeks to build that up before the 12.1 opening. Mel Gibson's Apocalypto (12.8) isn't rustling any bushes and has a fairly high negative. Blood Diamond (12.8) could build into something (65, 35, 3). Nancy Meyer's The Holiday (61, 25 and 2) has some work to do.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on November 16, 2006 at 3:20 PM
comment #1
MattM
says ...
I think you put the wrong numbers for Let's Go To Prison, which would be a huge surprise tracking at (82,44, 19). And I don't see where those numbers add up to higher opening weekend gross for Happy Feet than Casino Royale. Casino Royale's got nearly double the "first choice" percentage that Happy Feet does. Sure, Happy Feet will get kids and parents, but they'll wait until the holiday weekend.
Posted by MattM
at November 16, 2006 4:11 PM
comment #2
actionman
says ...
Sony will be pissed if Casino Royale does under $40 million opening weekend...Happy Feet is gonna be huge but everyone knew that.
I really hope Deja Vu is a kick ass movie and does great BO
Posted by actionman
at November 16, 2006 5:16 PM
comment #3
tholl-yung
says ...
That's a double grab sticking Happy Feet numbers to Let's Go and my bush, I suspect, with a fairly high negative.
Posted by tholl-yung
at November 16, 2006 5:19 PM
comment #4
Gabriel
says ...
What are the tracking figures on "The Fountain"? Maybe I'm just hopelessly optimistic or stupidly in love with the film (or most likely both), but I have a strange sense that it could turn into a slow-building hit.
Posted by Gabriel
at November 16, 2006 5:50 PM
comment #5
christian
says ...
gee, do people still believe tracking means anything after its success with borat?
Posted by christian
at November 16, 2006 6:44 PM
comment #6
EDouglas
says ...
I guess you're going to ignore my advice and just post these numbers without any sort of qualifier about how they're weighed based on genre and what else is in the marketplace. That's the big problem with you and Nikki. Someone sends you some private data and you post it willy nilly without really knowing how to weigh and analyze it and how much of it to take seriously.
Deck the Halls won't need to track well because when people go to the malls on the Friday after Thanksgiving to go Christmas shopping, they'll probably tickets based solely on the name.
Posted by EDouglas
at November 17, 2006 4:42 AM
comment #7
Jay T.
says ...
Tracking shmacking... it's almost always WRONG. Casino Royale will make at least 35 M this weekend and could possibly break 40. Franchise branding goes a long way, I think sometimes people forget that.
Posted by Jay T.
at November 17, 2006 9:40 AM
comment #8
count.olaf
says ...
But what about Balboa???? This year's *REAL* Christmas movie...
Posted by count.olaf
at November 17, 2006 10:04 AM