Weekend box-office

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As indicated by the sudden rise in tracking over the last 10 days and by what my Morgan Stanley friend wrote yesterday, Borat's opening day was an explosion, and generally speaking the weekend's #1 film is a monster. It's expected to do $22,486,000 by Sunday night -- a mere 837 theatres, 26,000 per print.

Fox had cut back on theatres a couple of weeks ago because of weak tracking and exhibitor concern about same, but then the numbers started to shooot up more and more starting about a week and a half ago. Obviously Fox will be expanding the shit out this puppy next weekend. They've obviously got a major hit on their hands.

Opening in 3458 theatres (more than four times the # of theatres Borat is playing in), The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause (Disney) should have made $30 million but it will wind up with about $18,792,000. The #2 film will come in with about 5700 a print...a definite disappointment. This once-lucrative Tim Allen franchise seems to be kaput. Is one of the reasons it didn't do better the fact that the word "the" is used twice in the title? I'm just asking.

But the reallly big disappointment is the performance of Flushed Away (DreamWorks). Playing in 3700 theatres, it will take in a projected $16,7550,00 by Sunday night with an average of $4500 a print...weak. It took in only $4,560,00 last night. The #3 film should have made at least $25 million if not more.

Saw III was #4 with a projected Sunday-night tally of $15,075,000.

The Departed, far and away Martin Scorsese's most successful film, has crossed the $100 million threshold -- $102,400,000 to be more exact. The expected weekend tally will be about $8,118,000 in 2785 theatres.

The Prestige wil end up with $7,676,000 on Sunday night for a sixth-place finish.

The seventh-place Flags of Our Fathers added 185 theatres and still went down by 31%. (It would have been off 35%, 35% without the expansion.) The weekend tally will be about $4,370,000. A this rate it'll be gone from theatres in a week or two.

$3,859,000 Sunday night tally for the eighth-place Man of the Year. For the weekend, I mean.

The Queen (Miramax) is now playing in 387 theatres (having added 235) and will take in an expected $3,026,000 by weekend's end for a ninth-place showing, taking in about $7000 a print. The cume has crossed $10 million. The strategy is to keep playing as long as they can, and then enjoy the surge when and if Stephen Frears' film gets a Best Picture nomination.

Open Season will have about 2,760,000 by Sunday night.

The limited release Babel (Paramount Vantage) expanded from 7 theatres to 35 theatres. It'll take in about $831,000 ($23755 a print) by Sundaynight. Tracking is indicating that this is mainly an urban sophisticate attraction thus far. So far the general interest is 40 to 50 range and the definite interests are in the middle 20s It did $50,000 a print when it opened last weekend. The signs are that it's going to perform only decently when it opens wide, but let's see what happens.

Pedro Almodovar's Volver (Sony Classics) opened in 5 theatres and will do roughly 197,000,000 by Sunday night, or $39,500 a print. Obviously a very, very strong opening. Close to phenomenal.

Poor Adrienne Shelly<< previous | next >>"Babel" vs. piss-heads

Posted by Jeffrey Wells on November 4, 2006 at 8:06 AM

comment #1

Chris Molanphy says ...

I was gonna say this on your other 'Borat' post, but now the numbers back me up so here goes: It's 'Fahrenheit 9/11' all over again.

Remember that weekend back in summer '04 when everyoen was saying, "The Michael Moore movie should do pretty well -- too bad it's opening against 'White Chicks'"? And then IT BEAT 'WHITE CHICKS' despite being on about one-third as many screens?

I have a feeling Fox -- not to give them too much credit -- had that phenomenon in mind when they did the screen pullback last week. It's a win-win, as far as they're concerned. Either they come in third or fourth, and everyone is looking at the solid per-screen and saying, "Wow, great job, considering how few theaters it's in"; or they pull a Michael Moore and wildly surprise on the upside, upsetting Tim Allen and the animated rodents. Amazingly, the latter scenario seems to be playing out. But either way, they were going to be in good shape PR-wise.

Posted by Chris Molanphy at November 4, 2006 9:02 AM

comment #2

JD says ...

Hmmm... so when Hollywood releases movies that are really good (The Departed) and/or really original (Borat), they can make lots of money. Something tells me Hollywood will choose not to learn a lesson here.

Posted by JD at November 4, 2006 9:18 AM

comment #3

Nick Rogers says ...

I'd like my crow medium well, with a side of humility.

It's clearly playing out as a phenomenon, even in 800 theaters. Congratulations to Fox and Cohen for an excellent opening for an excellent film.

As to the numbers for "Flushed Away," without checking, didn't "Wallace & Gromit" open to similar numbers last year? And I think people are either just tired of "The Santa Clause" or they know Martin Short will only add annoyance. I hesitate to say they're tired of Tim Allen because, as I've said before, I fear that "Wild Hogs" will be some massive hit.

I didn't expect either "Clause" or "Flushed" to do gangbusters, which was part of my initial disbelief that Fox backed off on "Borat." Just a question to ponder: Given these numbers, does anyone think it's possible that, had "Borat" opened on the initially planned 2200, it could have broken $40 million on opening weekend?

Posted by Nick Rogers at November 4, 2006 9:35 AM

comment #4

tholl-yung says ...

It's like the Columbia liftoff; this IS rocket science.

(Inside joke to me: Let's see if my PC is faster than my Apple.)

Posted by tholl-yung at November 4, 2006 9:38 AM

comment #5

tholl-yung says ...

I know that one blew up over Lockerbie.

Posted by tholl-yung at November 4, 2006 9:47 AM

comment #6

Daniel Fienberg says ...

Yes, that probably would be a disappointing first weekend for The Santa Clause 3, but I seemed to recall that the second Santa Clause movie also had a disappointing opening weekend. As per BoxOfficeMojo, The Santa Clause 2 opened with $29 million in the exact same weekend and people started writing "I guess nobody wanted a second helping" stories and then it went on to make nearly $140 million, because it played strong all the way through to Christmas. Even if the third movie opens at 18 million, I wouldn't be surprised to see it stick around long enough to make 75 or 80 million, which isn't great, but after DVD it's a moneymaker.

Just remember... there is no sanity clause.

Daniel

Posted by Daniel Fienberg at November 4, 2006 9:48 AM

comment #7

tholl-yung says ...

That's muy funny!

Posted by tholl-yung at November 4, 2006 10:10 AM

comment #8

MathewM says ...

The Santa Clause is a Christmas movie--it will pick up steam the closer the holidays get. It's probably a bad movie (I've only caught tid-bits of the previous two) but there's a large demographic that it appeals to--when the mood hits.

Posted by MathewM at November 4, 2006 11:30 AM

comment #9

jsp says ...

like i said in the other borat thread - fahrenheit 911 all over again.

it's funny to this tracking so off on this - i wonder if will be saying the same on nov 8 after the republicans hold on to the house and senate...lol

Posted by jsp at November 4, 2006 11:46 AM

comment #10

D.Z. says ...

Borat could just be front-loaded, because the kids haven't seen SC 3 on the weekend yet.

JD: Wait, what's so "good" about another remake? And what's so "original" about a spin-off of a tv show in which a guy asks people stupid questions?

Posted by D.Z. at November 4, 2006 12:50 PM

comment #11

Bob Loblaw says ...

Looks like Fox screwed up here... not that it won't be a huge success, but now it faces strong competition (Stranger Than Fiction) when it fully expands. I suspect it would've done better had they stuck with their initial release strategy.

Posted by Bob Loblaw at November 4, 2006 1:04 PM

comment #12

christian says ...

gee, tracking is once again proved to be...

TOTAL BULLSHIT.

so jeff, can you give it a rest?

Posted by christian at November 4, 2006 2:08 PM

comment #13

EDouglas says ...

Jeffrey, minor quibble, but it's not $26,000 per print, that would be twice Harry Potter numbers. Each of those 837 theatres have between two and three prints, so that number would be $26k per site average. I expect there's probably 2,000 or so physical prints among those theatres, not to mention interlocks (running two screens from one print)

Posted by EDouglas at November 4, 2006 2:13 PM

comment #14

MattyC says ...

Once again, DZ pops up to explain to us morons why things we enjoy are not "original" or "good". In today's thrilling installment, he boils down the genius of Borat into something even a studio exec could understand;

"A tv show where a guy asks people stupid questions."

Yes, that's just the pitch Sacha Baron Cohen used with HBO, from what I've heard.

Posted by MattyC at November 4, 2006 2:41 PM

comment #15

tholl-yung says ...

Running a film print through two or more projectors at the same time. This is done with a series of rollers which usually run along the ceiling or wall and carry the film from one projector to the other. The film starts at one projector, then finally ends up at the other projector. As expected, there is a time delay.

Posted by tholl-yung at November 4, 2006 3:15 PM

comment #16

TPK says ...

This morning's 11:30 show in San Francisco was just short of selling out. I've never laughed so hard at a film.

Posted by TPK at November 4, 2006 3:31 PM

comment #17

The Winchester says ...

Don't forget the keen observation that all the kids went to front load Borat before rushing off to Santa Clause this weekend. Because those 5 year olds love the Borat.

Posted by The Winchester at November 4, 2006 3:31 PM

comment #18

D.Z. says ...

MattyC: Um, Ali G was first pitched to Channel 4 in the U.K. HBO bought the rights to the American version, when they saw it was a success there.

Posted by D.Z. at November 4, 2006 4:15 PM

comment #19

Liz says ...

I would imagine SC3's business would pick up substantially around Thanksgiving; that's certainly when the kids in my family plan to drag me to it. No point in opening a Christmas movie much earlier than that, is there? See: Surviving Christmas, Oct. 22.

Borat is so groundbreaking and original! I would never have known that some Americans are racist and homophobic otherwise. There are racist old men in THE SOUTH? I had no idea! Thank God Sacha Baron Cohen opened our eyes. Can't wait for his hilarious role in Madagascar 2.

Posted by Liz at November 4, 2006 4:23 PM

comment #20

D.Z. says ...

Liz: I personally can't wait to see him play the challenging role of a gay fashion reporter in his next movie.

Posted by D.Z. at November 4, 2006 4:53 PM

comment #21

actionman says ...

borat is one of the funniest movies ever made. you either get it, or you don't. only an asshole could walk out of the theater and not enjoy it.

Posted by actionman at November 4, 2006 5:56 PM

comment #22

Zac Bertschy says ...

Oh Daniel Zelter, you humorless wet blanket you. Is there anything you won't shit on? Oh right, really, really old and uninteresting Japanese cartoons. Gotcha.

Santa Clause movies never have a boffo opening. They open them in early November (the last one also opened on this weekend a few years back). They ring up $20 mil and then do consistant business for a solid 2 months until the weekend after Christmas. Pretty obvious strategy.

I don't see how this one could possibly be worse than the last one; its grosses will probably be similar. The quality of the film is basically negligible anyway; it's not like these movies are playing to people with sophisticated taste. Show Tim Allen falling down a few times, make some fat jokes, maybe Martin Short queens it up for a little while and then at the end the warm-hearted spirit of Christmas makes everyone happy, and that's that. Tim Allen cashes his paycheck, goes home, watches reruns of Home Improvement and sobs quietly into his whiskey.

Posted by Zac Bertschy at November 4, 2006 6:19 PM

comment #23

D.Z. says ...

Zac: "Oh Daniel Zelter, you humorless wet blanket you. Is there anything you won't shit on?"

Yeah well, a year ago, people were telling me that The Aristocrats was genius, and it was just the same fucking joke told for different lengths of time, but with few actual variations. So I have a feeling that's what Borat's going to be like too. Anyway, I'll catch it at the $3 theater around here.

"Tim Allen cashes his paycheck, goes home, watches reruns of Home Improvement and sobs quietly into his whiskey."

You mean his crack pipe.

Posted by D.Z. at November 4, 2006 6:28 PM

comment #24

christian says ...

i gotta say i'll always have some feels for tim allen because of GALAXY QUEST, a part he was much better than he had any right to be. he held his own. i love that movie.

i actuallly heard a guy complain in the video store that the line to BORAT cut off at him....

too bad the masses won't go. i mean the masses our tracking devices measured. we get paid to do this. we're right. right?

Posted by christian at November 4, 2006 6:30 PM

comment #25

MPNeeb says ...

>>gee, tracking is once again proved to be...

TOTAL BULLSHIT.

It gets better- this week's Entertainment Weekly has a story about how Borat is generating lots of Internet interest but will crash and burn on release.

Posted by MPNeeb at November 4, 2006 6:55 PM

comment #26

D.Z. says ...

On a side note, how is Departed a success when it cost $90 million?

Posted by D.Z. at November 4, 2006 9:36 PM

comment #27

MovieBob says ...

So, then, Cohen is now a strong contender for a Best Actor nominee, right? And the film will get a Best Musical Comedy nod at the Globes but lose to Dreamgirls, yes?

Also, Dreamworks is TRYING to drag Aardman down, yes? That's the only explanation for opening "Flushed Away," which could dominate in a slower period as one of those "only family movie playing" hits, against an automatic kiddie juggernaut like Santa Clause.

Posted by MovieBob at November 4, 2006 9:48 PM

comment #28

Mike Schaefer says ...

In downtown SF, there are 2 multiplexes a block apart -- a total of 24 screens. "Borat" is on *one* screen, so of course it sold out all day. (I ended up seeing "Babel", which I seriously disliked, but that's another thread.)

And again, how idiotic was it to open SC3 and FA on the same non-holiday weekend? If either one of them opened alone, it would've done $30M easily. And in 2 weeks they have to compete with "Happy Feet"...

Posted by Mike Schaefer at November 4, 2006 10:31 PM

comment #29

F.U. says ...

Dizzy, I like Bushian analysisees. Very nice! High five!

Posted by F.U. at November 5, 2006 6:57 AM

comment #30

MattM says ...

Actually, tracking wasn't far off. What it showed for Borat was low overall awareness (40%), but almost everyone who was aware of the film wanted to see it (39%), and it had a higher first choice than anything else. The key here was not breadth, but intensity. General awareness is important, as your "want to see" will never exceed your "general awareness" number, but getting the two as close to equal as possible is what's optimal.

Posted by MattM at November 5, 2006 7:27 AM

comment #31