"Dreamgirls" & box-office prospects

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Dreamgirls will have roughly a $40 million cume by Monday night (1.1.07), but can it reach $100 million over the next four weeks? Big financial earnings in all sectors are seen as an indicator of Oscar potency, after all. And let's face it -- between now and the end of January (or early February) is the peak earning time for this DreamWorks musical. If it cleans up in the Oscar nominations (which are being announced on Tuesday, 1.23), its hand will obviously be strengthened. But by how much?

It reportedly made $4.7 million yesterday (Friday) compared to $8.7 million on opening day last Monday (12.25). To hit $100 mill by it needs to take in another $60 million over the next four weeks, but I'm guessing (tell me if I'm wrong) that it's not looking at much more than a $12 to $14 million haul next weekend, tops...perhaps less.

Bottom line: if it doesn't score with multi-Oscar nominations across the board three weeks and three days from now, Dreamgirls will stall somewhere south of $100 million. Can it still win the Best Picture Oscar with only a respectable (as opposed to astronomical) box-office tally? Sure -- if people want it to win, it'll win. But won't this make it a tad harder?

Chicago ended up with $170,687,518 domestic, yes, but maybe it's not fair to expect a musical with a somewhat restricted demographic (if I explain what it is I'll be called a racist homophobe, right?) to make $100 million-plus. I don't know. You tell me. Some feel it's bad form to bring up racial matters in discussing box-office potency, but it's a fact of American life. It's nice to think we're all clever, classless and free, but the lyrics from Randy Newman's "Rednecks" still apply in some areas, sorry to say.

comment #1

TKC says ...

Didn't Chicago go into the Oscar nominations with something like $50 million in grosses? If Dreamgirls has, say, $75 mil in the bank by the time the nominations are announced -- and even if it doesn't wind up winning Best Picture, it'll at the very least score nominations for picture, director, supporting actress, and some song noms, as well as a slew of technical nominations, allowing it to brag that it's been "nominated for 7 Academy Awards" or what-have-you -- I have a hard time imagining it won't drag its way across the $100 million line. (My bet would be on at least 8 noms -- picture, director, supporting actor for Murphy, supporting actress for Hudson, original song for "Listen", costumes, cinematography and set design.)

comment #2

vansmith says ...

this picture is a winner, box office and awards..i haven't seen it, wait on the DVD...

comment #3

Mike Schaefer says ...

To say that this movie only appeals to black people and gay men at this point is preposterous. If it were a present-day, hip-hop thing, then maybe. But a movie with a '60s-Motown backdrop and a (possibly) Oscar-nominated Eddie Murphy? That's baby-boomer catnip, especially as it's being sold as an "event". $100M easily.

comment #4

kmoore says ...

According to IMDB, "Chicago" only grossed $50,631,500, by January 31st, so "Dreamgirls" is well ahead of the game, if we are going by "Chicago" numbers. Chicago didn't hit $100 million until the last week in February. Actually Oscars noms helped "Chicago" gain most of its box office gross, so noma will only aid "Dreamgirls" by broadening its audience even more.

comment #5

lastmanback says ...

Saw this last night in Vancouver, Canada, crowd was 18-34 demographic, 3/4 packed theatre. Sad to say the audience was laughing during some of the musical performances ("We are Family;" Hudson's stand-out "Aint going nowhere" song). Also seemed like there was a sense of dread that any musical number was starting up after the hour/hour and half mark. Performances were solid (who knew Eddie Murphy could be devaastating) and the movie was fun, but i'd suggest my opinion was the minority.

comment #6

kmoore says ...

Blame Canada! Blame Canada! For their beady little eyes...

comment #7

kmoore says ...

To TLC: I think "Dreamgirls" will score at least 10 noms. People will be dying to hear J. Hudson sing live, so best believe "Love You, I Do" will be nominated. Also add, Best Adapted Screenplay to that list, leaving it with 10 nominations.

comment #8

Dixon Steele says ...

Jeff, when you set the $100 million mark as an indication of a film's success or failure, then you are part of the problem.

comment #9

Matthew Lucas says ...

It will be nominated for Sound Mixing too...make that 11.

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