Making predictions
The longer Oscar season goes on, the harder it is to make supposedly on-target Oscar Balloon calls and -- this year -- offer similarly shrewd predictions for The Envelope's Buzzmeter. You get sick of it after a while, for one thing. And you can't abstain 100% from putting in films and performances that you know are superior grade, even if you know deep down they probably don't have a chance of being nominated. And you can't discount the notion that we're on a moving train. You can smell the coffee like anyone else and predict Forrest Whitaker and Helen Mirren to win for Best Actor and Best Actress, etc., but if you don't draw from the heart and follow your instincts, it starts to feel foul. The more uniform the predictions, the draggier this game gets.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on December 20, 2006 at 11:58 AM
comment #1
Rich S.
says ...
The same thing happens in the two weeks preceding the Super Bowl. It's usually pretty obvious who is going to win, but the prognosticators have nothing else to talk about, so half of them talk themselves into the other team. Then it's a blowout and everyone is left shaking their heads.
Looks like the 'net and all these damn film festivals are taking Oscar guessing down this same road. It's starting too early and has no choice but to feed off of itself. Remember when many of the prestige films got a qualifying run in the last weeks of the year, so most people hadn't seen them until right around Oscar night? Maybe we need to go back to that.
Posted by Rich S.
at December 20, 2006 12:40 PM
comment #2
JD
says ...
I'm surprised The Prestige isn't on anyone's radar at this point. It deserves best adapted screenplay consideration at the very least. In fact, it's one of only four 2006 movies that have already cracked the imdb's top 250 (the others are The Departed, Little Miss Sunshine, and Pan's Labyrinth). In the past, this seems to be a sign of a movie's staying power, even if only among the die-hard movie geeks.
Posted by JD
at December 20, 2006 1:02 PM
comment #3
Chris Molanphy
says ...
I admire your advocacy, Jeffrey. But looking at your current Balloon, specifically in the Best Picture race, all of the likely nominees are in your "Plus" section, not in the topline section, which I notice is filled with some probable nominees ('Departed,' maybe 'Babel') but mostly with your long-acknowledged personal favorites.
No problem with that, but you should label the sections "Should Be Nominated" and "Will Be Nominated," not "Best Picture" and "Plus."
Posted by Chris Molanphy
at December 20, 2006 1:14 PM