Races that are already over

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Complete agreement with David Carr/"the Bagger" on Nathaniel R.'s tiny but hilarious little riff on the Best Actress race.

Knowing that Helen Mirren has the Oscar so totally in the bag is a little dispiriting; ditto Forest Whitaker taking the Best Actor trophy for The Last King of Scotland. It would be at least somewhat enjoyable (i,.e., interesting to write about) if there was even a slight sense of a horse race. But c'mon...no one's going to take it from Mirren. (Right?) It's a done deal.

And yet a Fox Searchlight rep confided last night that Whitaker's absolute dominance with the critics groups so far is giving her colleagues a twitch of concern because it sets the stage for a possible Leonardo DiCaprio, Will Smith or Peter O'Toole surge. Maybe one of these three will take it regardless -- the Academy has often ignored critics' champions.

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Posted by Jeffrey Wells on December 19, 2006 at 8:41 AM

comment #1

le corbeau says ...

Mirren indeed seems an unbeatable favorite, but I find it hard to see that Whitaker has it in the bag. On the plus side, yes, he's won the critics' awards, and the Academy lately has been on a tear to give them to black actors. But on the minus side... NOBODY has seen that movie. That's not something that can't be overcome but it makes its support wide but an inch deep.

Posted by le corbeau at December 19, 2006 9:18 AM

comment #2

bipedalist says ...

Helen Mirren deserves to be the frontrunner. Not only did she give EASILY, far and away the best performance of the year but she has long been ignored by them for doing great work for her entire career. So whatever, get over it.

Posted by bipedalist at December 19, 2006 10:56 AM

comment #3

Mike Schaefer says ...

I think Actor is very much a horse race between Whitaker and Smith -- Happyness is so totally the kind of movie the Academy loves.

Posted by Mike Schaefer at December 19, 2006 11:20 AM

comment #4

Walter Sobchak says ...

Jennifer Hudson's best supporting Oscar, (copyright 2006 AMPAS all rights reserved, not to be used without the express written consent of Major League Baseball), seems far more in the bag than anyone's other than Mirren's. At least that's what I've heard. Unless there's a BIG Dreamgirls backlash. Whitaker may deserve it, but you have to take into consideration the scenario I picture each year when trying to handicap. Academy member couple in their 70's climbing into bed together. Hubby's futzing with the DVD player.
"What do you want to watch from the stack of our screener movies, Honey? How about "The Last King of Scotland".
"Ooo, that sounds pretty good....no...wait, isn't that the movie about that blood-thirsty tyrant Idi Amin?"
"Yes. I've heard it's quite good, though. And it isn't an All-African cast. There are some white British actors in it."
"Mmmm...(shaking head), I don't know. Isn't there some classy Miramax movie in that stack about the English countryside? Or perhaps we could watch "Dreamgirls" again. We can watch that other one tomorrow night."

Posted by Walter Sobchak at December 19, 2006 11:24 AM

comment #5

florida25 says ...

Whether an "Oscar race" or a 'foot race' can understand people desiring not to know the 'outcome' of the race before it ever begins.

And whether the ultimate winner is Forest, Peter, or Leo, they are all deserving actors who gave terrific performances this year, so, however, the race turns out I'll be satisfied

Posted by florida25 at December 19, 2006 12:03 PM

comment #6

VedaPierce says ...

Helen Mirren...Best Actress?! I thought you had to be under 35 and wear prosthetics, play someone lower-income, get beat up and/or die in order to win that award. Or at the very least, be a pretty girl who surpasses expectations.

Posted by VedaPierce at December 19, 2006 12:59 PM

comment #7

erniesouchak says ...

Whitaker is a talented guy, but his performance and the movie have both been seriously overpraised. Like so many English actors, Mirren is a pro thru and thru; like Judi Dench, she simply doesn't know how to be bad. I would be happy to see her get it, even though Kate Winslet had a more multidimensional role in Little Children.

Posted by erniesouchak at December 19, 2006 1:21 PM

comment #8

VedaPierce says ...

Like Barbara Stanwyck, Peter O'Toole and Deborah Kerr, Kate Winslet will have to settle for an honorary Oscar. At the rate she's going, she'll have 8 nominations by the time she's 36 and will receive a lifetime achievement award at 42.

Posted by VedaPierce at December 19, 2006 2:09 PM

comment #9

Arrow77 says ...

I find it very hard to feel sorry for Hollywood bloggers (and the other medias) who complain about the lack of race for any Oscar category since they're very much the biggest cause of that problem. Everyone wants to be the first one who said "this is who wins" so when enough of them aggrees, voilÃ ! You have yourself an unstoppable buzz.

And when one surprise happens during, it is obviously a proof that Hollywood is out of touch.

Posted by Arrow77 at December 19, 2006 3:08 PM

comment #10

zoey says ...

Mirren's work in tv show Prime Suspect was better than most other potential Best Actress nominees' work on the big screen.

Posted by zoey at December 19, 2006 3:39 PM

comment #11

austin111 says ...

The critics groups consistent choice of the same folks over and over and over again just makes me tired. There are way too many awards given out anyway now. It's become too redundant to have much meaning beyond a bunch of yahoos screaming "you better vote for this person because we think they're the best" or else. Why not spread the wealth? After all, good/great performances can't be judged in the same way. No one performance is necessarily the greatest of the year -- unless, of course, it's by a Brando as in Streetcar Named Desire and it's never been done before. I feel almost the same about films. I think most critics believe they have to scream something over and over before AMPAS will move to elect their selected "most deserving" actor who's never gotten the recognition they deserve, probably for earlier and better work. It's all becoming a big "jerk-off". There should just be one big old critics group where everyone has a say and then be done with choosing 5 or so worthy performances and that's it. No one award, just a celebration of the best of the year. That would be a much more joyous kind of reward because it could be shared.

Posted by austin111 at December 19, 2006 5:00 PM

comment #12

renorambler says ...

Here, here, regarding Mirren and Prime Suspect. One of the best tv shows of all time. I've enjoyed her work for years and even remember having a crazy crush on her as Morgana in Excalibur (ah, youth). This is one of the few times an actor could win for her body of work (not just this year's perf) and I would be happy. I'm still bitter about Pacino winning BA in that stupid movie with the tango...so forgetable.

Posted by renorambler at December 19, 2006 7:38 PM

comment #13

ThermosDay says ...

I don't think it's "dispiriting" at all that Mirren SEEMS to have the Oscar in the bag. I think it's worrisome. She DESERVES the damn thing. 'Brokeback Mountain' DESERVED the damn thing. It seemed to have the Oscar in the bag. It didn't. She doesn't. It will be a crying shame if history repeats. But it could.

Posted by ThermosDay at December 19, 2006 7:41 PM

comment #14

Daviddb says ...

Whitaker winning all those awards could be reminiscent of another great character actor who was also a critics' darling back in 1986: Bob Hoskins who won everything under the sun for "Mona Lisa" but lost to...screen icon and legend Paul Newman. Could this be a replay 20 years later? Could Forest Whitaker lose to screen icon and legend...Peter O'Toole?

Posted by Daviddb at December 19, 2006 8:16 PM

comment #15

corey3rd says ...

the O'Toole machine hasn't started.

Posted by corey3rd at December 19, 2006 10:51 PM

comment #16

Hallick says ...

"the O'Toole machine hasn't started."

I get the feeling lots of O'Toole machines have started - mostly medical equipment - but they're on, dammit!

Posted by Hallick at December 20, 2006 1:29 PM

comment #17

kimi98 says ...

As an interesting counterpoint, view The Assault, based on Harry Mulisch's novel of the same name (and winner of the Foreign Language Oscar) about the ambiguity of living in Nazi occupied Holland, the resistance, and its effects on one family. A good film, but a great book.

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