Weekend numbers

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Sylvester Stallone's Rocky Balboa, as everyone knows by now, was the #1 film yesterday with earnings of 6.4 million, or $2300 a print. Don't expect it to stay on top, though, after Night at the Museum opens on Friday. The latest tracking has Museum at 84, 44 and 13, but that's without kids factored in -- it's looking like the weekend's biggest earner to me. The Good Shepherd is at 75, 38, 9 -- not awful, fair, middling. And We Are Marshall is looking a bit weaker at 69, 32, 6.

Of the two Xmas day openers, Dreamgirls is the stronger at 82, 33 and 6 compared to 45, 24 and 5 for Black Christmas. The likely audience breakdown for Dreamgirls is very much female (35-plus). The fact that it's opening Monday in 800 mostly urban and/or black-supported theatres obviously indicates DreamWorks knows where the concentrated interest is (so far). If they had a huge across-the-board hit waiting to happen, they'd be opening in 2000 theatres-plus...but they're not. Do the math.

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Posted by Jeffrey Wells on December 21, 2006 at 2:54 PM

comment #1

MattyC says ...

I thought Children of Men was opening Christmas day, as well. Did it get moved, or are you just not considering it a contender?

Posted by MattyC at December 21, 2006 4:27 PM

comment #2

lesterg says ...

Good for Rocky, but I still think it will be #3 for the weekend.

Posted by lesterg at December 21, 2006 5:01 PM

comment #3

Bob Loblaw says ...

Children of Men is only opening on 16 (I think) screens 12/25. Wide release is now slated for January 6th (at least, according to filmjerk...)

Posted by Bob Loblaw at December 21, 2006 6:08 PM

comment #4

Dixon Steele says ...

Hey, Jeff, just saw the new print ad for CHILDREN, with a big fat juicy quote from you, exclaiming it as Best Picture of the Year.

I guess this evens you up with Poland and the Miami Vice ad.

Congratulations! You are now officially a Quote Whore...

Posted by Dixon Steele at December 21, 2006 8:24 PM

comment #5

Spacesheik says ...

Who else apart from people such as myself would wanna see a 3 hour CIA drama (SHEPHERD) during the Xmas holidays? The film could top out at $60 million if its lucky.

NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM will open big and then prolly drop considerably.

The above two films won't go the distance.

WE ARE MARSHALL is the only one that could rival ROCKY's 'good word of mouth' to keep it afloat during the holidays.

But don't be surprised if ROCKY BALBOA wins the Xmas box office - the film seems to be gaining a lot of momentum and the word of mouth is fab.

Posted by Spacesheik at December 22, 2006 2:14 AM

comment #6

thatmovieguy says ...

It's a mystery to me why word of mouth on BALBOA would be "fab." The film is mostly dull and half-baked (although it is better than ROCKY V). The audience I saw it with seemed excited to see it before it started, but they bolted for the doors the second the end credits started. On the other hand, when I saw MARSHALL a couple of weeks ago the theater was standing-room-only and there was quite a bit of applause at the end; much of the audience also stayed through the end credits. The screening of GOOD SHEPHERD, on the other hand, prompted several walk-outs (mostly young viewers)and sent the guy sitting behind me straight off to Dreamland (where he snored loudly until someone smacked him). Damon is terrific, but the character is wholly unsympathetic and the movie wasn't interested in providing the BOURNE IDENTITY-style thrills the crowd seemed to be anticipating. I found it compelling, but there were a lot of "wasn't that long?" and "it was good, but..." comments on the way out.

Posted by thatmovieguy at December 22, 2006 4:24 AM

comment #7

MattyC says ...

Why would you try to hate on Rocky and have the temerity to call it "Dull", something it most certainly is not. Also, you obviously saw Marshall at a pre-release screening, and not a critics' screening, so all the "standing-room-only" (what does that even mean in a theater setting, anyway? Were there people actually standing in the aisles, cause that's what it means for sports), "applause" and people watching the credits means nothing.

Why does people staying for the credits EVER mean ANYTHING? That has got to be the worst way to tell if people liked something. Unless the credits have some wacky outtakes, or deleted scenes, most people never stick around for them. You just sat there for 2-3 hours, I don't care how great the flick was, you probably want to stretch your legs.

Posted by MattyC at December 22, 2006 8:52 AM

comment #8

Rich S. says ...

"You just sat there for 2-3 hours, I don't care how great the flick was, you probably want to stretch your legs."

You got that right, MattyC. Most filmmakers these days have apparently forgotten storytelling economy and don't have any idea what an editor is. What have we come to when simple pop fluff like King Kong and POTC approach three hours? Forget stretching your legs; most moviegoers have to make it to the rest room before their bladders burst.

Posted by Rich S. at December 22, 2006 12:38 PM

comment #9

kimi98 says ...

And whether the ultimate winner is Forest, Peter, or Leo, they are all deserving actors who gave terrific performances this year, so, however, the race turns out I'll be satisfied

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