comment #1

John Y says ...

So, of course you're referring to "Letters from Iwo Jima." The real question is can a foreign-language film, albeit one directed by almighty Clint, entered the Best Picture Five? Or will "Iwo Jima" push "Flags of Our Fathers" back into the race?

comment #2

Dan Revill says ...

*sigh*
I doubt Flags will be pushed back into contention. Iwo Jima deserves to be rewarded on its own merits.

comment #3

Dan Revill says ...

And well, Jeff, you just stated in your previous post that you saw "Letters", so it's not really a secret right?

comment #4

JD says ...

Are there people who seriously believe World Trade Center has a shot at awards? Sounds insane to me.

comment #5

Chris Willman says ...

Wouldn't it be great if Letters, Babel and Apocalypto were all up for best picture, meaning that two and a half out of the five contenders were foreign language films? Okay, it won't happen, but wouldn't it be great?

comment #6

alynch says ...

So Jeff, how long before you can start talking about the movie which shall not be named. I'm anxious as hell to read a rave about it just to confirm my suspicions.

comment #7

Mr. Gittes says ...

Why is everyone hating on The Good Shepherd?? No one has seen it yet (to my knowledge) and already people are casting it aside and leaving it out of the oscar race. I guess we'll see.

comment #8

Nick29 says ...

Good Shepherd does look damn good. I still think it'd be fun talk to see DeNiro go head to head with Scorsese, put them up onstage presenting together and have them make jokes about having each other wacked if the other takes the gold. Then again, they both may have to tag team Eastwood in the parking lot if he even gets in there.

comment #9

EDouglas says ...

I still don't think that DP is talking about Letters, at least I hope he's not. I also don't think it will do that much for Flags, even though I'll admit being interested in seeing it again after seeing Letters. But I don't think Letters will even come close to Flags in terms of box office either. It's no Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. BUt will it get Clint another director's nomination or be commended for its screenplay or cinematography? Sure, I can see that happening.

comment #10

le corbeau says ...

Admittedly, last year the Oscars looked a lot more like the Independent Spirit Awards than ever before, nominating Capote and Brokeback over Walk the Line or The Chronicles of Narnia. But still, when people like Jeff say the category will be filled out with things like Children of Men, Babel, Volver, maybe even The Lives of Others, I have a hard time buying it. Too edgy-arty; they have categories for that stuff. My middlebrow instincts tell me that there are four locks for nominees, all respectable movies which have proven their appeal to audiences (except for the one that hasn't been released yet), and all in English and readily accessible to the older Oscar voter demographic: The Departed, The Queen, Little Miss Sunshine and Dreamgirls. What the fifth will be depends on reviews and reception for the remaining candidates, but I would say it's unlikely to be Babel (not very successful) or Volver (good but not as good as other recent Almodovar). Hell, I'd be less surprised to see, say, The Illusionist sneak in there, if they get the screeners out to everybody and play their cards right.

The category that Jeff inexplicably leaves off its list, though, is animated feature. Okay, not inexplicably if he just doesn't give a crap, but last year I'd bet more people had seen any one of the nominees in that category than all 5 Best Picture nominees combined. For middle America-- you know, that dwindling TV audience that make the Oscars more significant than the National Board of Review-- there's more excitement in a race between Cars, Happy Feet and Flushed Away than in one between Babel and Volver.

comment #11

bipedalist says ...

I think you're spot on, Mgmax. You got it right. But we're in that first flush before nominations, where the possibilities are still wide open. Once noms hit, there will be a morning after crash. Some will be thrilled, others will be getting their first real dose of AMPAS reality. Either way, I'd say the locks are only three: Dreamgirls, Departed and The Queen. Little Miss, Babel, Flags, etc. are still in the fight but they have to fight harder. One ugly, hidden truth about the Academy is that on the one hand they vote with their hearts (or who they like, really really like) but on the other hand, they vote for their friends and support whatever team they're pitching for (are they on the Fox team? The Uni team? The Harvey team? The Haggis team? The Geffen team? The Spielberg team?) and figuring THAT out can often lead you to the nominees and eventually the winners.

For what it's worth.

comment #12

Jesse Perry says ...

"The Chronicles of Narnia?"

comment #13

ThermosDay says ...

"Pursuit of Happyness"? Puleeze. The only 3 locks for Best Picture at this point are THE DEPARTED, DREAMGIRLS, and THE QUEEN. Duking it out for the last 2 spots will probably be Babel, Little Miss, and one of the 2 Clint war movies. Any chance VOLVER might've had has been diluted by surging European Best Picture THE LIVES OF OTHERS.

comment #14

le corbeau says ...

I actually liked Narnia a lot, but in any case, we're talking what the Oscars might have liked, not what you or I find objectively good. And so I see no reason that Narnia is qualitatively below such past nominees as, say, Chocolat, or Seabiscuit, or Finding Neverland-- indeed, cross Finding Neverland with The Lord of the Rings and what do you get but Narnia? But I grant you that Walk the Line was a far more likely nominee; so leave it at that.

comment #15

christian says ...

spiderman 3.

ha ha ha....

comment #16

JeanneValJean says ...

Has a foreign film ever been in the best picture category? Didn't "Life Is Beautiful" get that nod? Just curious.