Frontrunner disease

Oscar strategist Tony Angelotti tells Variety pinch-hitter Sasha Stone that "being a front-runner can be a blessing and a curse. It's nerve-rattling on one hand, because a front-runner can lose, an underdog can't." A prime example -- certainly the most recent -- is last year's defeat of Brokeback Mountain in the Best Picture category by Crash, "proving once again that even the most formidable frontrunners are vulnerable."


"And thus Crash joined the ranks of what are considered the biggest spoilers in recent Oscar history: An American in Paris, Chariots of Fire, Shakespeare in Love and Braveheart -- all films that, for whatever reason, captured the hearts of Academy voters when everyone was convinced it would go the other way," Stone writes.

An anonymous producer and Academy member says that "the Academy is a very middlebrow group, and they're uncomfortable with homosexuality." My own much-better quote follows: "The over-60, over-65, over-70 group in there just couldn't roll with the idea of gay men in a Western setting. There are leaps that certain generations just can't make. It's not them. It's not their history."

Which '06 film is the vulnerable frontrunner right now? Are qwe speaking of an obvious Best Picture contender startign with the letter "D" and, according to some, a Best Picture lock that's starting to look -- ask David Carr -- like it has feet of clay? Or another D movie that's looking stronger right now, but may lose out in the end of Little Miss Sunshine and/or Babel? You know the names, look up the numbers.

Posted by Jeffrey Wells on January 11, 2007 at 12:58 PM

comment #1

Craig Kennedy Author Profile Page says ...

Interesting that even in retrospect the unnamed Academy member insists that Shakespeare was better than Ryan. Even as one who never got on the Shakespeare Sucks bandwagon, I thought conventional wisdom had pretty well turned against that film.

Posted by Craig Kennedy Author Profile Page at January 11, 2007 1:33 PM

comment #2

Melquiades Author Profile Page says ...

I've always felt Shakespeare in Love is a far better film than Saving Private Ryan. Ryan suffers horribly from its ridiculous bookend scenes, and very little of it is memorable aside from the opening 20 minutes and parts of the final battle.

Shakespeare is funny, sexy, smart and contains excellent performances from a gifted ensemble cast. It was a shock, certainly, but the better film won.

Of course, I think Rushmore should have been Best Picture that year, but it wasn't even nominated.

Posted by Melquiades Author Profile Page at January 11, 2007 2:04 PM

comment #3

Josh Massey Author Profile Page says ...

I'd like to think "Date Movie" and "Deck the Halls" are still frontrunners.

(And you're right, Mel - the best movie did win in '98).

Posted by Josh Massey Author Profile Page at January 11, 2007 2:13 PM

comment #4

bipedalist Author Profile Page says ...

Shakespeare WAS better. Easily better. Ryan is all about the first 30 minutes, so went the whisper campaign, which happened to be true.

Posted by bipedalist Author Profile Page at January 11, 2007 2:16 PM

comment #5

Mark Author Profile Page says ...

"very little of (SPR) is memorable aside from the opening 20 minutes and parts of the final battle"

Even if i agreed, which i don't, let me just say that this is like saying that very little of Pulp Fiction is memorable aside from Vincent Vega and Marsellus Wallace's Wife,
The Gold Watch, and
The Bonnie Situation.

Posted by Mark Author Profile Page at January 11, 2007 2:21 PM

comment #6

Kristopher Tapley Author Profile Page says ...

No love for my Late Entry story? BURN!

Posted by Kristopher Tapley Author Profile Page at January 11, 2007 2:21 PM

comment #7

Craig Kennedy Author Profile Page says ...

There were more deserving films than both in my opinion, but I definitely liked Shakespeare better than Ryan. I already look like a stooge in another thread for defending Stranger than Fiction so I was just going to keep quiet about it though.

Posted by Craig Kennedy Author Profile Page at January 11, 2007 2:27 PM

comment #8

jeffmcm Author Profile Page says ...

Here we go again.
You're all wrong about Saving Private Ryan, for the umpteenth time.

Posted by jeffmcm Author Profile Page at January 11, 2007 2:39 PM

comment #9

siamesecat Author Profile Page says ...

If Chariots of Fire was a dark horse in 1982, what was the front runner? On Golden Pond? Surely not.

Posted by siamesecat Author Profile Page at January 11, 2007 2:58 PM

comment #10

Hopscotch Author Profile Page says ...

Ah, the hold SPR vs. Shakespeare in Love fight. Which, let's all be honest with ourselves, at the time was a popularity contest between Harvey and Spielberg. Remember, way back when in 1998, Miramax was the exciting, edgy studio with edgy products, er, films. Spielberg had been rewarded to death, let's go with Shakespeare.

Let's think of the people who've won Oscars under Harvey's hands who probably wouldn't have with someone else: Roberto Begnini, Matt and Ben, and Gwenyth.

Begnini beat Hanks that year which I think is the real unforgivable sin that night. Gwyenth beat Blanchette for Elizabeth...right.

SIL is a cute, charming movie. But it's not much more than that. SPR is over-praised, sure. Those bookends are deadly. But some Hanks' and Spielberg's best work is in that movie.

I defy anyone to watch Ben Affleck in SIL without some SERIOUS cringing. Those scenes with him are god awful.

Posted by Hopscotch Author Profile Page at January 11, 2007 3:07 PM

comment #11

Hopscotch Author Profile Page says ...

Reds was the front-runner in 82. Beatty won Best Director.

Posted by Hopscotch Author Profile Page at January 11, 2007 3:08 PM

comment #12

Craig Kennedy Author Profile Page says ...

I was too busy noticing that girls my age were growing breasts in 1982 to be more than dimly conscious of Oscar but I'm going to guess Reds was the favorite.

Posted by Craig Kennedy Author Profile Page at January 11, 2007 3:11 PM

comment #13

Arrow77 Author Profile Page says ...

I've said it in another discussion but I'll say it again here: you don't need to be homophobic to not be wow-ed by Brokeback Mountain. The rythm and pace of the film is much slower than any recent winner I can think of. The gay cowboy angle may have turned off some voters but that controversial aspect is probably the biggest reason why it's been praised this much in the first place.

Posted by Arrow77 Author Profile Page at January 11, 2007 3:16 PM

comment #14

mitch Author Profile Page says ...

I, for one, never bought into the Brokeback Mountain push, as its emotive conveyance never caught my interest. Although I respect the approach, Brokeback's potentially provocative mystique was watered down over the years by the various media which are working to socialize same-sex relationships (which I think is a good thing). Thus, it felt about 5 years late. So it all comes down to whether or not you think Brokeback is a well written love story, properly directed, with memorable moments and performances. Since I was and still am apathetic to the picture, watching it lose out to Crash was no big deal in my opinion. Heck, I was glad. I really enjoyed Crash. Still, even knowing that it wasn't nominated, I think the best movie that year was History of Violence.

Shakespeare in Love is a cheeky little picture with charm and wit, but I haven't watched it again since seeing it in the theater once, and I've never even been inclined to purchase it. Which leads me to…

Saving Private Ryan, which I feel damn well should have won the best picture because it did something so few movies do: changed the way in which I think about something. Although my father served in the military (Vietnam, 3 tours) and I have always respected military service, Saving Private Ryan changed my opinion of an entire military generation in 20 minutes. I watched men of that era sob in the theater, without a hint of shame, and I sobbed with them. Went back 2 more times, taking 3 good friends the second time and finally convincing and taking my wife the third time. I cried each time, even more deeply than the time before. I immediately purchased the DVD when it became available and have watched it in full several times over the years. For me, a landmark film, only surpassed by the character depth and scope of Band of Brothers.

I say fuck the Oscar and what anyone else thinks, see movies that interest you, and buy those that you enjoy.

Posted by mitch Author Profile Page at January 11, 2007 3:33 PM

comment #15

bipedalist Author Profile Page says ...

"I defy anyone to watch Ben Affleck in SIL without some SERIOUS cringing. Those scenes with him are god awful."

God, it's so funny because I don't like Affleck very much but I LOVE him in SIL. Really, the whole movie is great and everyone in it but for some reason when he shows up I just lose it every time, "are you going to do it like that?"

Posted by bipedalist Author Profile Page at January 11, 2007 3:35 PM

comment #16

Philp of New Hampshire Author Profile Page says ...

I don't think there is a vulnerable front runner. There are a group of flicks that at the moment anyways can be the top film ... a dark horse such as The Queen could come out of dark ... but Little Miss Sunshine is just simply so good and easily related to by people in general (even if they have nothing in common with the characters) that I see it as a comedic version of a film like American Beauty ... does that sound insane? Maybe, but both are flicks about "people" and just "people" ... and the academy seems to love that ...

and that's okay with me since Little Miss Sunshine was the flick I want to win.

Posted by Philp of New Hampshire Author Profile Page at January 11, 2007 3:38 PM

comment #17

ArchiveGuy Author Profile Page says ...

There is no Best Picture frontrunner because there's too little info coming in. No real consensus among the critics, though "Departed" decidedly has the edge, but everyone knows the critics mean nothing in Academy voting (note "L.A. Confidential" & "Sideways")

Only when the guilds & Globes come out will a leader slowly emerge, but even though that will represent some momentum, it'll still be a fairly open field. Not all contests are pre-decided so easily (though if I were Whitaker, Mirren or Hudson, I'd be chewing my nails with the "inevitability" build-up)

Posted by ArchiveGuy Author Profile Page at January 11, 2007 3:42 PM

comment #18

Edward Author Profile Page says ...

I'll weigh in for the "Saving Private Ryan" naysayers; a derivative WW II film with a drop jaw amazing opening and sappy bookends. "The Thin Red Line" is the vastly superior film that year. That being said, "Munich" was a much better and daring film from Spielberg.

Posted by Edward Author Profile Page at January 11, 2007 4:16 PM

comment #19

Hopscotch Author Profile Page says ...

The glue for SIL is the score which its very sweet, enchanting theme, and Tom Wilkinson is very fun to watch.

It's a cute movie, it's charming. I just didn't think it was Best Picture material.

But Jeff is right, that any of these top six, seven movies could sneak up there. My fingers are still crossed for a "United 93" surge (or escalation if you will) in popularity.

Posted by Hopscotch Author Profile Page at January 11, 2007 4:34 PM

comment #20

T. S. Idiot Author Profile Page says ...

Shakespeare in Love celebrates show business, the creative process, love, and Gwynnie's boobies. The opening battle in SPR is less a realistic look at war than a celebration of what can be done with special effects. The final battle resembles an episode of Spielberg's boyhood favorite Combat. For all its flaws, The Thin Red Line, from the same year, is a better war film. I agree about the criticism of Ben A., however. His awkward rhythms are out of sync with the rest of the actors.

Posted by T. S. Idiot Author Profile Page at January 11, 2007 5:22 PM

comment #21

MichaelC Author Profile Page says ...

The Departed is the mainstream, middlebrow choice. Violent Scorsese movies aren't the shockers they used to be, especially not when they are certified box-office hits with the blessing of the critics. Saying The Departed can't win because it's a violent crime film is like saying Unforgiven can't win because it's a violent western.

I think the Academy has the scope of history in mind when they vote Best Picture. The winner has to stand along side Casablanca and Gone with the Wind. The Departed is the only likely nominee with that kind of stature.

I can't think of a former winner as light-weight as Little Miss Sunshine. Even Annie Hall had the substance of great romance. Plus, in case everyone's forgotten, it's also a very gay-friendly film. I'm not saying it's impossible, but I don't see it winning.

Babel, on the other hand, forget it. When the Academy names a Best Picture it's like an ad for movie going in general. They are not going to send the masses out to see an artsy, divisive, largely-subtitled film with a strong, teenage sexuality angle. If Iwo Jima's campaign hadn't been so ham-fisted Babel wouldn't have even had a shot at the nomination.

With The Queen probably too small a film, and Dreamgirls seemingly already peaked (People can blame whoever they want for Dreamgirls slipping, but the simple truth is the film is just not that good) I would say The Departed has a clear path to victory, with Scorsese's likely director win giving it extra momentum. Besides, is there any reason to believe that the Academy wouldn't be enthusiastic about voting for it? They probably love it like everyone else.

Posted by MichaelC Author Profile Page at January 11, 2007 5:28 PM

comment #22

Philp of New Hampshire Author Profile Page says ...

I don't know. No matter how good the Departed was or Babel or The Queen, Little Miss Sunshine seems to have the rewatch factor going for it. It carries originality almost everytime one watches it, and the twists aren't as strong a part of the plot as they are in The Departed, etc.

Now not that any of this really matters but it truly isn't a light weight film by any means. It really is a deep film underneath the comedy and the acting. And the light weight parts of it, well, they are what make it so charming in the first place.

A lot of tough choices but Little Miss Sunshine was my favourite.

Posted by Philp of New Hampshire Author Profile Page at January 11, 2007 7:40 PM

comment #23

bipedalist Author Profile Page says ...

"I would say The Departed has a clear path to victory, with Scorsese's likely director win giving it extra momentum. Besides, is there any reason to believe that the Academy wouldn't be enthusiastic about voting for it? They probably love it like everyone else."

I don't even dare to dream.

Posted by bipedalist Author Profile Page at January 11, 2007 9:06 PM

comment #24

Hallick Author Profile Page says ...

The only underdog that might beat "Dreamgirls" is "The Departed". "Babel" doesn't have enough (or all that much) love in its corner; "Little Miss Sunshine" is just getting set up for disappointment since there's a whole lotta hate landing on it the more it gets recognition (doubtlessly, if it ever won best picture, the cries of "worst Best Picture" ever would shake the internet); and "The Queen" gets its cookie when Helen Mirren accepts her trophy. Best Picture hopes for "Letters From Iwo Jima", "Pan's Labyrinth", "Children of Men", "Flags of Our Fathers", and "The Pursuit of Happyness" will effectively end on nomination morning, whether any of them get in the final five or not.

"Children of Men" has the most passion in its corner at the moment, but its just going to wind up one of those "be happy you have a masterpiece" things and won't be a real challenger if it does squeeze in.

Posted by Hallick Author Profile Page at January 11, 2007 10:21 PM

comment #25

christian Author Profile Page says ...

oscar strategist? you mean that's a job in hollywood?

Posted by christian Author Profile Page at January 11, 2007 10:40 PM

comment #26

dobbsy Author Profile Page says ...

Hallick: don't be shocked if Queen "gets her cookie" for Mirren. And another for screenwriter Morgan. And another for...Best Picture....Someone said it's small. I'm with you. And it's a Brit TV pic. But....ACTING all over the place with Brit accents, terrific writing and directing, well-made, takes us inside that world of Brit Royalty that probably EVERY Acad member has seen through the lens of a tourist's camera. At an historical moment. Humanizes that wacky family, a task not many would think possible. And small films? Hmmmm...Crash...Marty...Annie Hall....Kramer vs Kramer....sure won't be the first time a) small has won and as everyone learned last year, b)upsets happen.

Posted by dobbsy Author Profile Page at January 12, 2007 12:11 AM

comment #27

MovieBob Author Profile Page says ...

Brokeback Mountain is a below-average paperback sad-romance flick. Once the novelty of "ooh! Gay guys, how taboo!!!" wears off, it's got nothing going for it. Had it won, not only would it eventually be remembered as one of the great bad decisions in Oscar history (because in the near-future when gay issues are less controversial, it'll have no impact whatsoever,) it'd have given legit ammunition to the Rightie wankers who like to bitch about "Liberal Hollywood rewarding movies for politics."

Posted by MovieBob Author Profile Page at January 12, 2007 12:58 AM

comment #28

Fellini Author Profile Page says ...

To all,

Shakespeare in Love is a steaming pile of Poodle sh*t.
Saving Private Ryan is a steaming pile of Dobermann sh*t.
Meaning?
They're both dog sh*t, and they both stink!

Even The Truman Show was better, Rushmore, Out of Sight, La Vita è Bella, The Thin Red Line, American History X, Gods and Monsters (just to name a few Oscar Nominees that year), all better movies... Christ, Freaking Antz is a better movie!

Posted by Fellini Author Profile Page at January 15, 2007 4:08 PM

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