comment #1

Reedyb says ...

I can't help but think that The Departed has it all but locked up now. It was the first Scorsese picture in forever not to be hyped as the "one to win Scorsese the Oscar" which is why it is playing out just right.

comment #2

Walter Sobchak says ...

I feel sorry for anyone who hasn't seen "Little Miss Sunshine" yet. I can't imagine most people just now seeing it not thinking "what's the big damned deal?" It's an adorable little movie. A nice treat. A lot of fun to watch. But all this talk about it being the best picture of 2006 is practically begging for a LMS backlash.

comment #3

Craig Kennedy says ...

Agreed Walter. I'd seen the movie and liked it but was starting to get irritated with all the fuss over it. It was only when I'd seen some clips of it in the run-up to the Globes that I was reminded of its charms and quieted the nagging feeling it was overrated. I think the movie plays best when it sneaks up on you rather than hits you over the head.

comment #4

Mr. Gittes says ...

Jeff or anyone out there, I don't understand why Little Miss Sunshine is being mentioned as a lock for best pic. I just saw the movie and although it wasn't bad and funny at times, I simply don't see how it's oscar worthy. It is not this years Sideways because Sideways was much funnier. I just don't get it. In my opinion, Children of Men or The Good Shepherd should are much more " Oscar Worthy"

comment #5

bipedalist says ...

This just in? HE covered this many days ago.

comment #6

MathewM says ...

"It is not this years Sideways because Sideways was much funnier. "

Agreed. LMS is a nice little movie, well made, well intentioned, a few chuckles here and there--but I never once thought it was a "great" movie. Also unlike Sideways I couldn't find much to relate to in these characters--they were caricatures. Alan Arkin was funny but who the hell has a grandpa who snorts heroin? I liked Toni Collette as the mom but her personality was such a polar opposite of Greg Kinnear's that you have to wonder what would of ever brought them together in the first place. It was a dysfunctional family but without the little traits that bind a family.

comment #7

ArchiveGuy says ...

The biggest impediment to LMS taking home the big prize is that, IMHO, it's not going to snag a Director nomination. A film scoring Best Pic without its director being mentioned has only happened once in the last 70 years, and I don't see LMS as another "Driving Miss Daisy".

comment #8

The Movie Man says ...

I enjoyed LMS, but it is essentially an arty sitcom, Vacation with a hint of self-congratulation. Which makes it perfect Best Picture fodder. You guys can get over "The Departed" winning right now because it will not happen. It will be the obligatory violent, hip movie that they normally throw a nomination bone to (and in tis case that wouldn't happen either if it was directed by someone less regarded in the industry). I don't think the Scorsese for director is a lock either, how many times in the past was it supposedly a lock?

I think LMS has got a major shot at winning Best Picture, Director and Screenplay.

comment #9

lastmanback says ...

(Spoiler Alert!)
I'm sorry, but this movie lost me the moment Arkin's character died. It was building to something special, but then just turned into a silly farce.

I will admit though, that while i went with a group of people who all agreed with this position, we were by far the minority in the theatre. First movie i'd been to in ages where people cheered at the end.

comment #10

The Movie Man says ...

"Vacation witha hint of self-congratulation" Talk about pretentious horseshit, sorry guys.

comment #11

JD says ...

Of all the movie's being thrown around as best picture contenders, LMS is probably the most disciplined and complete realization of its intentions. It's also the least ambitious of all these films (except maybe The Queen). So what are they rewarding, the most ambitious good movie or the most successful realization of intent, regardless of scale? If it's the latter, I can see LMS winning. The Departed and Babel are more sprawling and ambitious, but neither film feels as complete as LMS. You get the sense that every detail in LMS was worked over for days, whereas Babel and The Departed are riddled with small and, in the case of Babel, large problems.

comment #12

Craig Kennedy says ...

I'm not one to make Oscar predictions before the nominations are even out but my thinking is in line with Movie Man. Ever since this post by Jeff about his conversation with Sasha Stone regarding "Us vs. Them", I've really begun to like LMS's chances. I'm not sure about the Us vs. Them theory, but the point about how there doesn't seem to be a significant faction against the film might be enough for it to win. At the time, I thought the other choice could be Dreamgirls until I finally saw it and was a little disappointed.

I'm not saying LMS is the best choice, but I'm thinking more and more it's the most likely choice, not just for a nomination but for a win.

comment #13

Josh Massey says ...

As I've said before, if "Crash" can win, "Little Miss Sunshine" can win (and probably will).

comment #14

Jeff says ...

Remember about two weeks before The Departed came out when Well's was going on and on about how bad it was going to be. Yeah, that was funny.

comment #15

Jeff says ...

Remember about two weeks before The Departed came out when Well's was going on and on about how bad it was going to be. Yeah, that was funny.

comment #16

Craig Kennedy says ...

Don't forget how The Departed was doomed to fail because it didn't play Toronto...

comment #17

Argen says ...

xactly. I stopped paying attention after it didn't play Toronto. I can't believe anyone's even considering it. Toronto is law. Hard and fast. Nothing violates it.

comment #18

Hallick says ...

"Many inside and out of the Academy feel Little Miss Sunshine is virtually a lock for a Best Picture nomination come Tuesday,"

And it's also looking like Lindsay Lohan may have a bit of a drinking problem.

I just wanted to be first with that info, too. Now Mr. Hammond and I shall go down to 7-11 and buy lotto tickets with last week's numbers 'cause we're SCARY insightful like that.

comment #19

bipedalist says ...

Thank god Departed didn't play Toronto; the best thing it had going for it/HAS going for it is that it is in the Oscar race the good old fashioned way - because of buzz, heat, word of mouth and box office.

Little Miss could win, especially since their directors were nominated for the DGA but...I don't know. I still say Departed. I'm at a loss, though, truly. Until noms are announced, we on't know what the Acad. thought of these movies.

comment #20

Argen says ...

"Until noms are announced, we won't know what the Acad. thought of these movies."

When has that ever stopped anyone from rampant speculation?

comment #21

Craig Kennedy says ...

Of all the films being bandied about as possible winners Bipedalist, I hope you're right about The Departed. Keep it under your hat though, I'd hate to see it fall victim to the dreaded "front runner backlash".

comment #22

bipedalist says ...

I hear you, CJK. I'm trying to underplay as much as possible. :-) I don't dare "go there."

Meanwhile, I love this scene:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfD8tBKW7-A

comment #23

Craig Kennedy says ...

I want to see it again. I see it's still playing around town in For Your Consideration Screenings. Perhaps I'll brave the tourist hordes at the Chinese 6 or the snooty shopping hordes at Beverly Center this weekend.

comment #24

bipedalist says ...

I think they're re-releasing it soon.

comment #25

Terry McCarty says ...

Bipedalist mentioned braving the snooty shopping hordes at the Beverly Center this weekend.

I haven't been to the Beverly Center in years--are there still hordes of shoppers or have they opted to join the hordes at that great backlot known as The Grove?

comment #26

Craig Kennedy says ...

Last time I was there BC was still snooty, but it had this low-rent, yesterday's papers feel in the air. The Grove has supplanted it as Most Annoying Consumer Hell in LA, but I still don't like going there.