I can't think of any journalist who's been a more impassioned Dreamgirls fan that The Envelope's Tom O'Neil, so it's significant that he wrote yesterday, "Surrender, Dreamgirls fans -- The Departed is now officially ahead for the Best Picture Oscar. When the top Critics' Choice Award went to The Departed on Friday night, it was the last bit of evidence I needed to change my prediction."
O'Neil's conclusion was fortified "a day earlier when I heard a third academy member over two days tell me that they planned to vote for The Departed. The only other film they even considered was Little Miss Sunshine. They liked Dreamgirls, even admired it, but they didn't flip over it, didn't feel it was their movie -- not one targeted to old straight white geezers."
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on January 14, 2007 at 7:08 AM
comment #1
EveHarrington
says ...
I may not be an Oscar "expert" like y'all but could someone explain to me how what a bunch of critics bestowing an award affects the outcome of the Oscars? Last I checked -- Sideways -- what the critics want rarely manifests itself with AMPAS.
Posted by EveHarrington
at January 14, 2007 8:44 AM
comment #2
Josh Massey
says ...
Like I said in another post, Dreamgirls is probably #4 - behind Little Miss Sunshine, The Departed and The Queen (in that order).
As much as I would love Departed to take it (if, of course, Children of Men isn't in contention), I'm afraid the same folks that voted for Crash and A Beautiful Mind are going to bestow Sunshine as "best."
Posted by Josh Massey
at January 14, 2007 9:55 AM
comment #3
jbf81
says ...
I'm afraid the same folks that voted for Crash and A Beautiful Mind are going to bestow Sunshine as "best."
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I will SCREAM, I will SCREAM like there is no tomorrow if this happens. But then again last year I felt like some one had punched me in the stomach when Jack announced Crash.
I stay way one week from media and Internet, I just couldn’t handle well. I mean Crash was soooo bad, it was just insulting.
Posted by jbf81
at January 14, 2007 10:02 AM
comment #4
Dan Revill
says ...
Funny, Jack looked like he'd been punched in the stomach when he read Crash too.
Posted by Dan Revill
at January 14, 2007 10:04 AM
comment #5
jjgittes
says ...
Still not buying that "The Departed" is a Best Picture winner....quite frankly I'd be stunned - don't care if it's the frontrunner....it's too much a curveball from what they normally pick.
I could understand if it was an indisputably GREAT film - but it's just a very good one, so, I'm just not seeing how it wins.
By the way, the reason "Crash" beat "Brokeback" has alot to do with the fact that it was set in L.A. .....it got to people, it hit a nerve.
"Brokeback" for alot of reasons left people cold (not only the homosexual angle, but because of the closed off nature of the lead character).
Posted by jjgittes
at January 14, 2007 5:45 PM
comment #6
EDouglas
says ...
Not only did the Academy spurn Sideways for BP, but it passed on both Thomas Haden Church and Virginia Madsen who were winning everything up until that point and didn't even nominate Paul Giamatti. It's all about perception and the big difference between being someone who makes movies and someone who just reviews them.
"Funny, Jack looked like he'd been punched in the stomach when he read Crash too."
Are you kidding? He seemed pretty smug and proud of the decision to snub the movie about homosexuals.
Posted by EDouglas
at January 14, 2007 6:31 PM
comment #7
bipedalist
says ...
EDouglas, you are so wrong - you think Jack is a homophobe? Please!
Posted by bipedalist
at January 14, 2007 9:21 PM
comment #8
Ian Sinclair
says ...
Actually, BiP, I think he's an Aries.
Posted by Ian Sinclair
at January 14, 2007 9:50 PM
comment #9
elizlaw86
says ...
The Critics' Choice Awards is NOT an OSCAR precursor. The Departed was good, not great. The Queen is fading and will not be ANYONE'S number ONE choice on an Academy ballot. I'd say this race will eventually boil down to a neck-and-neck battle between Searchlight for (I can't believe I'm saying it) LMS and Paramount Vantage for (the movie that actually DOES deserve to win best picture) BABEL. BABEL and LMS have racked up all the guild precursors with the exception of ASC. Guilds actually DO predict the Oscars since members of the Guilds have crossover with the Academy. There aint one critic choice voter that's on the Academy. And Roger Friedman is a half-wit.
Posted by elizlaw86
at January 14, 2007 10:03 PM
comment #10
ArchiveGuy
says ...
EDouglas is an idiot, since Nicholson was quite candid about his personal vote for Picture that year: Brokeback Mtn.
Posted by ArchiveGuy
at January 15, 2007 2:37 PM