comment #1

corey3rd says ...

I'm still holding out for the Jackie Earle Haley comeback.

Has anyone noticed that the Oscars have lost their buzz because of Anna Nicole Smith and Britney's bald meltdown? The entertainment shows seem to reduce the Oscars to "and remember this Sunday...." The red carpet is going to be lined up by vultures asking the stars about "messages to a confused Britney" and asking if they're the father of Anna's baby.

Maybe the death of the giftbag has ruined the ET/Access Hollywood reporter's desires to get the inside scoop.

comment #2

Kristopher Tapley says ...

An Academy member today told me he thought Murphy would win, but he said "by the skin of his teeth." So yeah, it's close.

comment #3

Chris Molanphy says ...

No, no – Mike Myers is the orge. Murphy's the ass.

(Sorry, couldn't resist.)

As long as we're talking about winning odds, rather than just dumping on Murphy again: I think right here in this post – between your industry observer and corey3rd's comment – we have the case for Murphy ekeing out a win. Simply put, a split: the anti=Murphy vote will be divided between Arkin and Haley, leaving a clear field for the thousands who don't read Oscar blogs or even hate David Geffen and just like Murphy. Yes, I believe those types exist.

I liked Murphy in 'Dreamgirls,' but if I were voting, I'd pick Haley.

comment #4

caslab says ...

I think it will be Wahlberg.

comment #5

bipedalist says ...

Wahlberg could totally upset, especially if A) Departed sweeps, B) Arkin and Murphy split it.

comment #6

tholl-yung says ...

I was thinking it could be Wahlberg too, on the strength of The Departed. Or Alan and Abigail, as a gester to LMS after passing it over on best picture. Does anyone think Abigail could take it? Are Academy members really in love with Jennifer Hudson's supportive acting?

comment #7

PanTheFaun says ...

With every awards category there's always levels: there's "I'd really like to see them win," "I'd be okay with them winning," and "I'll be furious if they take it."

Am I the only one who feels that for this category more than any other, it's almost a sure thing I'll be furious?

In my opinion, Haley and Murphy are the only ones that even deserve to be NOMINATED, and Murphy is just such a smug asshole, I really will only be happy if Haley wins (of which the odds are next-to-none).

Alan Arkin: seems like a great guy, and is certainly due, but c'mon, his role in LMS-- which I adore-- is completely gimmicky (tee-hee, the grandpa's cursing!), required minimal effort, and personally, I think he was by far, the least of that ensemble. Carell, Kinnear, Breslin, Dano and Collette were all infinitely more impressive.

Djimon Hounsou: Probably my least favorite performance of the year. Rehashing all the "noble black man" bullshit he seems to play in every movie, and a performance that consisted of nothing but running around and screaming "My son!!!" for two and a half hours.

Mark Wahlberg: I fucking love "The Departed" and have seen it a half dozen times, but each time I watch it I can't understand what it is about this performance that's earned him awards play. Like Arkin, he's maybe the sixth-best in the ensemble, after (in order) DiCaprio, Nicholson, Farmiga, Damon, Baldwin. Yeah, he does well with the minimal material he's given, but are we really giving out Oscars now for impressively saying variations of "I fucked ya mutha"? Like I said, I like him, but there's NO depth to this performance.

*Sigh* Sorry for rambling, but is anyone with me here?

comment #8

christian says ...

sigh.

it's arkin. come on.

comment #9

LYTrules says ...

Pan, there may be little depth to Wahlberg's performance, but don't underestimate the fact that he provides practically the only laughs in an otherwise brutal movie, which is a crucial ingredient.

comment #10

Craig Kennedy says ...

Pan, I'd argue the fact that Arkin managed to sell you on what you think (and I agree) is gimmicky character. The character as written is a sticking point for people who don't like the movie, but nearly everyone who liked LMS thought Arkin was a high point.

As I've said before, Murphy would've been better if **SPOILER ALERT for the 5 people who haven't seen Dreamgirls but still plan to** they hadn't killed off his character just as he was starting to show some range.

Wahlberg's character is mostly on the page, but Marky Mark brings it to life. That's worth something, isn't it? He was even better the second time around.

Off screen, Haley seems like the most likeable of the bunch. I wish I liked his movie better.

Blood Diamond is the only multiple nominee I didn't see so I have no opinion of Hounsou.

So, who's going to win? I still think it's Murphy, but I don't really know. Dreamgirls does seem kind of dead in the water and Murphy would be the most likely victim of that.

comment #11

Chicago48 says ...

To Panthefaun: I'm with you. it's Eddie by the skin of his teeth. and I saw Blood Diamond and scratch my head - how did it get FIVE F***** NOMS? It meandered all over the place, and you're right, Honsou was screaming all over the place (LOL). Honestly, you have to ask yourself, whose performance would I want to see AGAIN - and for me, it's Eddie. I'm not an Eddie lover, being a black woman, I can't stand to see another black man in drag, and he's done it one too many times for me. But if only he was given more meaty roles like Dreamgirls.
Yes, I saw Blood Diamond, LMS, DG, the Departed, and out of all of those I think Eddie gave the standout-breakout performance.

comment #12

Chris Willman says ...

PanTheFaun, I am with you. Completely. On every point. Except on Wahlberg deserving to be nominated, because I wouldn't mind seeing him beat that competition even if he is the sixth-best in his ensemble. If only Haley had a shot. I do think there will be a significant anyone-but-Murphy vote, and it will be split three ways, and Murphy will win.

comment #13

Chicago48 says ...

To Kennedy: About killing off Eddie...as I remember the orig. play, Jimmy didn't OD, he just disappeared after Lorrelle left him. That part of the movie bothered me, it was so cliche' - another black soul singer OD'ing and if I was Murphy or another cast member I would have argued to change the script (like Chris Tucker always does).
The first half of DG soared, it was absolutely f**** brilliant, and then it became very cliche the second half (after THE SONG), and there was less dancing and singing. It lacked dancing and singing and Broadway shows are like operas, they keep moving musically.

comment #14

Brigadier Pudding says ...

i thought baldwin and particularly sheen were far better supporting players than wahlberg. yeah, he was funny but the character was bordering on caricature and utterly devoid of any depth.

i thought the sheen-dicaprio connection was more the more convincing and powerful dynamic.

comment #15

tholl-yung says ...

Why the hell isn't Vera F. in there? Does Abigail have a chance? There's a history of putting cute little girls up on stage at the Academy Awards.

comment #16

Craig Kennedy says ...

I think there were a lot of overlooked performances in The Departed and the biggest was Damon. Is it possible the vote was just split among all the different actors or was there less enthusiasm from the acting branch all around? If it's the latter, it's hard to imagine Departed winning best picture.

comment #17

PanTheFaun says ...

For the record, I don't know if my post got across that I think Haley gave by far the best supporting male performance of the year. Does anyone think he has any shot whatsoever? *fingers crossed*

comment #18

Craig Kennedy says ...

Pan, I think Haley has a shot but that's only because everything seems so close this year. The only things that would surprise me about the awards is if Mirren loses and if neither Whitaker nor O'Toole win for Best Actor. Every other major category to me feels too close to call.

comment #19

zoey says ...

I would hate to see Wahlberg win for having the best lines in The Departed, while Damon, a far better actor, wasn't even nominated. Switch roles... like any good Boston boy, Damon could have done Wahlberg's role with his eyes shut. Now picture Wahlberg playing Damon's role and... well you get the picture.

comment #20

rocco says ...

I'll say it again...playing brooding and bullying is not "acting" in the classical sense. Wahlberg's performance in 'Boogie Nights' was much more nuanced and challenging. The three most impressive parts in 'Departed'--Jack, Sheen, and Leo--didn't get noms. How hard is it too look pissed off for an entire movie?

As gimmicky as Arkin's character was, was anything more cliche than Wahlberg's bad cop? He showed us NOTHING inside that character, while Arkin at least had the "fuck a lot of women" diatribe.

Anyway...the tone of this piece is much different. No more takedown BS...this is speculation and Jeff has finally lightened on all the deathblow plunger garbage, whatever the hell that even meant.

comment #21

Josh Massey says ...

One of my favorite pieces of acting - if not my very favorite - comes from Wahlberg in Boogie Nights. It's that long shot that stays in a close-up, when he goes from coked-up and out of it, to slightly amused, to a little nervous, and finally to completely freaked out in under a minute.

I am rooting for him to win based on that scene of almost a decade ago.

Of course, Jackie Earle Haley would be so fun to watch as well.

comment #22

Rob says ...

Thank you, Josh, for bringing up what I've been thinking all along: Wahlberg should win because he's owed for Boogie Nights. Damon totally stole his thunder this year.

Also, interviews of late have played up the fact that Mark improved a lot of his dialogue, which could win him some points.

comment #23

Rob says ...

Oops, I meant "Damon stole his thunder that year," as in 1997.

comment #24

bipedalist says ...

Both Leo and Matt should have been nominated.

comment #25

nola says ...

random fact: Arkin wrote the "Day-O" song made very famous by Harry Belafonte. who knew?

comment #26

berg says ...

and Alan's father David wrote "Black and White" which was a hit for 3 Dog Night

comment #27

steve says ...

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