comment #1

Brian says ...

Funny quote by Samuel L, considering a) Iñárritu was doing this kind of thing since long before Crash ever came around, b) Crash had Brendan Fraser as a DA! It doesn't get more Benetton than that, and c) Jackson's filmography over the last 5 years.

comment #2

JD says ...

Could this "tea-leaf reading" -- which Jeff admits he pulled out of his ass -- have anything to do with the recent arrival of Babel ads all over this site and/or the departure of The Departed ads? Of course not.

comment #3

JD says ...

Wait, I just saw The Departed ads again... but those Babel ads are a lot bigger.

comment #4

Delcoro says ...

Ads? You still see ads on the internet? How sad for you.

Firefox + Adblock FTW.

comment #5

JD says ...

I need ads. How else would I know that no film moved me more than Babel in 2006? You may not have heard, but it has "5 languages, 4 stories, 3 continents" and it's "1 towering achievement."

comment #6

MoisesChiu says ...

Jeff's been calling it for all three of Sunshine, Babel, and Departed at varying times. He's had ads on for all of them during their initial runs, and then now that they're all up for awards. Seen Children of Men ads around since it didn't punch through with Pic or Directing nods,eh?

comment #7

PhilContrino says ...

When was the last time that the Best Picture race was this wide open?

comment #8

Josh Massey says ...

Last year, apparently.

comment #9

Craig Kennedy says ...

Did assorted bugs and perhaps a small power tool or two come out with the tea leaf, Jeff?

comment #10

qwiggles says ...

I don't recall last year being all that open. Did anyone call for Capote or Good Night, and Good Luck to win?

comment #11

Pablo Villaça says ...

"(It's an outrageous misrepresentation to equate Inarritu's film with Paul Haggis's '05 Oscar winner, but so many people have bought in this there's almost no point in arguing. )"

Indeed, it is. "Crash" is a much, much better film.

comment #12

Toby Kwimper says ...

Wait a minute, I'm confused. On Jan. 28 Jeff said, "It's over...Little Miss Sunshine is going to win the Best Picture Oscar...done deal, finito, no further discussion." And now here comes further discussion, and "it's Babel, Babel, Babel all the way...it's over." How can it be over now when it was already over before? Or maybe, just maybe, it wasn't over before and it's not over now, regardless of what Jeff's ass is telling him.

comment #13

qwiggles says ...

With Jeff's ass and Dave's intuition both working overtime, we're bound to find a frontrunner eventually.

comment #14

jse33 says ...

I still think it's between The Departed vs Babel. The Editing nomination will be a factor. It was a factor last year, it will be a factor this year, just like it's been a factor for the past 25 consecutive years. The Best Picture winner has at least gotten an Editing nomination since 1981 when Ordinary People didn't. The Departed and Babel are the only 2 who have received Editing nominations out of the 5 Picture nominees. If one of these 2 wins Editing, then I think they win Picture. Scorsese has Director locked up, so this may be another split year. I'm not sure what else Babel would win aside from those 2. Possibly Screenplay. Score? The only chance Little Miss Sunshine has is if Arkin upsets Murphy and it wins Screenplay over Babel. Otherwise, *poof*

So let's assume Babel doesn't win score, that would give it Picture, Editing, and Screenplay vs The Departed's wins for Director and Screenplay. The difference between those wins is....Editing.

So that's one theory. Personally, I still think it will flip-flop, and we will see a Departed night with Picture, Director, Screenplay, and Editing.

comment #15

Dan Revill says ...

qwiggles, that was awesome. if ever we meet, i am buying you a drink. that made my day.

comment #16

jeffmcm says ...

I don't think Babel is a masterpiece, but for anyone to claim that Crash is much, much better is outrageously wrong on every possible level.

comment #17

bmcintire says ...

I would pay cash to see either THE QUEEN or LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA win best picture, just to watch Jeff backpedal on the other three he has alternatley called "locks." I'm sure David Poland would much enjoy the same scenario.

comment #18

le corbeau says ...

"I would pay cash to see either THE QUEEN or LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA win best picture, just to watch Jeff backpedal on the other three he has alternatley called "locks."

And you know, in a strongly divided field it could happen. I can't see Iwo Jima winning, but I could see The Queen. It only has to get a little more than 20% of the vote.

Frankly, I think this truly is the first year in ages where almost any of the five-- four of them, anyway-- could win.

comment #19

Sean says ...

"I still think it's between The Departed vs Babel. The Editing nomination will be a factor."

Listen, the Editing award is completely retarded, and I can virtually guarantee they'll give it to the one which is jumping across three different stories, keeping them straight and moving forward consistently, over the entirely straightforward and conventional editing of Departed. It has nothing to do with the fact that Departed is well editing; 'Babel' is much, much flashier in its editing. It is easy to point to 'Babel' and say "Oh, I understand that editing." Thus it will win. That's how stuff like that gets decided.

And Jeff, welcome to a month ago; 'Babel' has been the only movie which could possibly win ever since the announcements (and not just because Salma Hayek made the announcements).

"So let's assume Babel doesn't win score"

Can I just say, usually I pick the score which I can hum, which I remember from the ads ... but I can't remember any of them! Who's the consensus on this?

comment #20

Walter Sobchak says ...

Babel WILL win... I feel it... I didn't like it. It has that "very important film for our times" feel to it. Shit.
For the moment, let's forget about conventional wisdom and momentum. Did anyone else besides me think that "Letters From Iwo Jima" was easily the best of the five nominees. (only answer if you actually saw "Letters" and especially don't answer if you're a Clint-hater who didn't like "Flags of Our Fathers" and blew off "Letters" because you figured it was just more of the same.)

comment #21

MPNeeb says ...

This is what happens when 'Children of Men' does not get nominated for the top prize...

I like 'Babel,' but if it wins it'll be pointed out as another film that just isn't good enough to be called 'Best Picture.'

AMPAS is in a race to the bottom with the Grammys.

comment #22

The Movie Man says ...

Walter-Speaking as someone who's been frustrated with a lot of Clint's work lately, I agree that Letters, a major return to form for the man, is the best picture of the nominees, and indeed, one of the best pictures of the year.

comment #23

OtownRog says ...

Jeff, babe;
Do you KNOW what a headwind is? It's what pushes you backwards.
And no need to worry about explaining/clarifying your Little Miss Sunshine connections as seen by LA Magazine and any other journalist reading about that fishiness. I want to know why this sudden Babel-ing on your part, and the flurry of Babel ads that just popped up on your site.

comment #24

T. S. Idiot says ...

All this uncertainty is fun. Thank goodness DG is out of the picture, or everyone would be saying it's a shoo-in. If the voters had had the courage to nominate Pan's L for best picture, would it have been the frontrunner? It has none of the negative baggage of the five actual nominees, unless you count the language and the fact that only 1% of Americans have ever heard of the Spanish Civil War.