comment #1

bipedalist says ...

Indeed, any name could be called and it wouldn't be surprising, even The Queen, even Letters. I think it's Departed, winning by a margin of ever so much.

Who knows. Since I don't know, I'll go with the one I "feel" will win.

comment #2

bipedalist says ...

By the way, who are these people you talked to? I tend to trust those whose predictions I trust rather than Academy members - last year, Acad members all thought Brokeback would win. So it's:

Ebert: Babel
Dave Karger: The Departed
Poland: Babel
Kris Tapley: Letters from Iwo Jima
Pete Hammond (so far): Babel
Other EW predictors: Babel
Vegas oddsmakers: LMS and Departed
100% internet polls: Departed

Babel looks to be the general consensus. Any other pick is going out on a limb. I think the biggest voting block will be the Departed people. All of the others will draw their share of votes. The Departed edges them out for these reasons. 1) Marty is overdue and that will motivate some who might not other vote, 2) it's a "guy's guy" movie, like Gladiator. 3) it is the most 'successful' studio film of the bunch. 4) It's a fucking great movie. 5) DGA and WGA show it has momentum at the right time. Didn't peak too soon, like maybe Babel and LMS.

(but nobody, least of all me, knows a damned thing)

comment #3

Joshua Mooney says ...

Doesn't it all seem-- I dunno-- kinda pointless? Lord Jesus, maybe it's just me. Who won the Superbowl, who won the Stanley Cup, who won the 400 meters at the last Olympics, who won the Tony for Best Director, who won the fucking Nobel Prize for literature and aren't we all reading those books now? (We should! They're good! I'll debate anyone who says otherwise.) Who put the bomp? And then it all begins again. "Oscar Balloon" so soon? Yes of course because that's what it's there for! Dumb-ass. Ladies, start yer engines. Kids? Time to get real now. This is the OSCARS, baby. Lives in the balance, what-not. "Babel" has 6 Academy Award nominations! So does "Pan's Labyrinth"! "Oscar Balloooooooon"! "Best Art Direction"! I guess their families fucking care, as they've got to be there. (But there's the ones that don't show, not even for the Special Nite.)Show me some photos of the nominees! I want to see what a genius looks like! Or a legend. Who's keeping score? Is Bette Davis keeping score? Peter O'Toole? Sian Phillips? Is Faye Dunaway keeping score? I would keep score, but I'm just not up to it. I don't have enough air in my lungs.

It's all been sucked out of me.

comment #4

austin111 says ...

This is easily the most tiresome oscar season I can recall. At least in part because so many of the big awards are already in the bag, so to speak. The awards consensus has beaten us into the ground....okay, we get it -- it's Whitaker and Mirren who are overdue and worthy this year....blah blah blah. No suspense, no mystery. The awards gods have spoken and these are the chosen ones, but were they really the best, the most difficult and most interesting performances this year? I disagree. Still it's hard to go against the crowd, isn't it? Best Picture -- who cares anymore? Not me. I'd like to join Ryan Gosling in thumbing my nose at them and heading off for Africa to do something, er, more important.

comment #5

VedaPierce says ...

"Who's keeping score?...Sian Phillips?"

LOL x10

comment #6

EDouglas says ...

"Kris Tapley: Letters from Iwo Jima"

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

At least he was onto something when he was going with The Departed before the guild nominations/wins... not sure why he's back on this ridiculous bend of his when there's nothing pointing to any support for Letters (not even the box office).

comment #7

jse33 says ...

I wouldn't be shocked if Babel did win. Yeah, it gets mentioned here and there, but most places I read says Departed or LMS. I think it's Departed or Babel, and for the 100th time, because of their Editing nominations. Babel would be the kind of choice the Academy would make because Babel hasn't won much of anything else. Yeah, the Globe win, but who cares about the Globes? It really only has 3 real chances of victory. Picture, Editing, and Screenplay. IF...we hear Babel announcements for Screenplay and Editing, that would point to a Babel Picture win. IF...we hear Departed announcements for Screenplay and Editing, Departed has it wrapped up for Picture. Director is already a lock. That would give Departed 4 wins. If Babel takes it, it has 3. This year, the awards will be spread out again as there is no big epic to sweep everything. I'm even having trouble selecting some of the tech awards, although it looks as though Pirates is the safest choice in its categories.

comment #8

Hejla says ...

I'm predicting The Queen.

I think it'll get a large portion of the British vote plus a large portion of the older vote. Meanwhile I think LMS and The Departed will split among younger voters. The key is the older voters for whom The Departed is perhaps to violent, LMS is too young and Babel and Iwo Jima are both too subtitled and too international.

comment #9

Josh Massey says ...

In order of likelihood:

1) Babel
2) The Departed
3) Little Miss Sunshine
4) Letters From Iwo Jima
5) The Queen

However, my jaw won't drop if any of the top four win.

comment #10

f.bush says ...

This year reminds me alot of 1995 where nobody had a real clue that year either. In 1995 Mel Gibson was a lock for Director because Ron Howard and Ang Lee didn't get nominated and the director award carried over to Best Picture. This year Scorsese's a lock and I think the same result could carryover to Best Picture.

comment #11

Craig Kennedy says ...

I wish the Academy would just realize we're done picking it over and get on with the damn awards already.