comment #1

Josh Massey says ...

Will there ever be a true out-of-left-field surprise anymore, in this day of mass overanalysis? I find our predictions damn near identical, though I honestly do think Arkin will beat Murphy - even if it isn't my preference. My predictions are only a click on my name away - for those who care what an Atlanta teacher/former junketeer-who-saw-the-light has to say.

comment #2

dobbsy says ...

What percentage of accuracy do you think constitutes success or savvy or insider knowledge of how the Academy actually works?

Should we, for instance, assume that any percentage of accuracy below 80% renders your "expertise" suspect and makes your level of industry sophistication equal to the Missouri insurance company cubicle-dweller who could do hit that number in the office oscar pool?

comment #3

Gabriel says ...

These are almost universally my picks too, although for some reason I think "Babel" gets the screenplay honor, I think "The Departed" wins editing, and I feel like "Happy Feet" takes best cartoon.

comment #4

le corbeau says ...

"Best Animated Feature: Cars"

I also think Happy Feet. I thought Happy Feet was kind of weird, but it's the most original cartoon of the last five years or so (apart from Miyazaki), and the only one that didn't follow the cookie-cutter pattern of modern animation.

"Best Foreign Language Film: Pan's Labyrinth"

I was expecting JW to say The Lives of Others, which is a very fine film, but it sure makes sense to bet on the one that the most people have seen. Frankly, I could also see a surprise for Black Book here.

comment #5

gruver1 says ...

Wells to dobbsy: What do you want me to do, get out the dart board? The hell with predictions. All I care about is what I care about. I would lvoe to see "The Lives of Others" win Best Foreign...in fact, fuck it....I'm changing my Best Foreign Language Film prediction right now.

comment #6

Mike Schaefer says ...

"I was expecting JW to say The Lives of Others, which is a very fine film, but it sure makes sense to bet on the one that the most people have seen. Frankly, I could also see a surprise for Black Book here"

Actually, "Black Book" didn't make the final 5. But I saw a trailer for it before a showing of "Lives of Others" the other day, and now I can't wait to see it. I think that, since BFF is a category where voters are required to see all 5 nominees, that an upset is always possible here. and "Lives" could easily get the nod.

comment #7

Geoff says ...

I say Flags of Our Fathers may win sound design. The dvd gave my setup a good workout and it sounded great.

comment #8

Balthazar says ...

Three "no guts, no glory" predictions: Oscars for Happy Feet and Peter O'Toole. ... I have zero stinkin' clue on Best Picture, though.

comment #9

Rick22 says ...

"Pan's Labyrinth" takes the cake over "Lives of Other." Both are Best Picture-worthy. But giving the nod to "Pan's" is the Academy's way of giving much-deserved props to the Three Amigos. Best Pic is between "Departed" and, as much as it pains me to say, the derivative and cynical Alexander Payne-lite-by-way-of-"National Lampoon's Vacation"-drivel "Little Miss Sunshine."

comment #10

Devin Conroy says ...

Although I do indeed believe that the foreign film pick will end up costing you money on Sunday night, I think it is a ballsy move to go with your gut. I haven't seen Lives yet, but your love of the film makes me all the more anxious for it to be released (I wish foreign films weren't brushed aside in this country).

comment #11

dobbsy says ...

Sorry, Jeff, I misunderstood. I thought you were predicting what would WIN, not stating your aesthetic preferences.

Couldn't agree more with you and Rick22 on Pan and Lives which were two of the three best films of the year, screw the foreign language ghetto.

Quick recap: Departed wins, cool.

Iwo Jima Wins, cool.

Queen wins, surprising, but ok.

Babel wins, damn I hated that one.

LMS wins: You won't have dobbsy to kick around anymore. I'll be rifling through Anna Nicole's fridge for the methadone and slim-fast.

comment #12

Dan Revill says ...

I loved The Lives of Others, but I loved Pan's Labyrinth too. A co-worker and I are doing a side bet, and I went with Pan's.
I almost went with Letters for Best Picture, but stuck with The Departed - but I wouldn't be too surprised if Letters wins it.
And Babel takes editing. It was brilliant in that respect.

comment #13

le corbeau says ...

"Actually, "Black Book" didn't make the final 5."

Oh, I guess I shoulda checked that. I know it was the Dutch entry, but didn't realize it didn't get in.

Am I the only person who was underwhelmed by Pan's Labyrinth? It didn't quite add up for me, the fantasy stuff didn't seem organic enough to the girl's experiences, or maybe it was all spoiled for me by having seen a number of publicity photos of the makeup ahead of time. Not saying it wasn't a good movie, and the guy from With a Friend Like Harry and Dirty Pretty Young Madly Deeply Things was deeply creepy as the fascist, but when it was over it was over, where I've been thinking about The Lives of Others for 24 hours now.

comment #14

dobbsy says ...

mgmax: that's my take exactly. i love pan, but i feel the screenplay is a bit wobbly and i'm not sure what i'm feeling by the end of the trip.

lives, however, has held up to three viewings and i just feel it's an essential movie for the rest of my life. can't wait to see what florian von whatzit does next. I wonder if we could petition him to shorten his name to something snappy like "hudson."

comment #15

le corbeau says ...

On the ground the two movies compete on, there's no comparison. The fascist in Pan's Labyrinth goes exactly where you expect that character to go-- which is not to say that it's not highly effective at times, such as when he reminds you just how callously male-oriented and contemptuous of their women the Franco types could be (being fascist, military and Catholic all at once). But the villain in The Lives of Others goes in directions you never would have guessed at the outset, yet it's entirely believable when he does so because you see how everything he does, good or evil, derives from a consistent and, in some sense, honorable sense of his duty to socialism. (I'm trying not to spoil anything here.) There's just a lot more depth and complexity in how that character plays out over the course of the film.

comment #16

Larry says ...

Pan's Labyrinth "leaves you feeling just a wee bit abandoned at the end"? I thought the ending was the best part of the film.

And why aren't you calling An Inconvenient Truth a lock?

comment #17

Craig Kennedy says ...

Mgmax. You're not alone on Pan's. I liked it well enough to keep quiet about it in the midst of the majority who love it, but it wasn't even in my Top 10. Lives of Others has haunted me for the last two months. I actually like it more now then when I first saw it.

There, I said it. I feel so much better now.

For the record though, I was totally enchanted by Ophelia and all of the fantasy elements.

comment #18

cinemascopian says ...

click the link for my Oscar calls:
http://cinemascope.co.il/?p=431
after I published them I had a change of heart regarding best song: I agree with Jeff now that "An Incovinient Truth" will bag that one, making Al Gore's movie win 2 for 2. (but i didn't change my predictions).
And I say Happy Feet will take animation. Isn't it the CGI version of An Inconvinient Truth? Aren't gas guzzling Cars the enviromental demon right now. No hybrids in that movie. very un-PC-hollywood-wise.

comment #19

jjgittes says ...

I still don't get the support for "The Deaprted" screenplay. The screenplay is the worst part of the film (great dialogue sure, but ridiculous plotting).

I'm not so sure Hudson hasn't lost supporting to one of the Babel ladies, and I am not counting O'Toole out either. I expect Whitaker to get it, but it wouldn't surprise me if O'Toole eked out enough votes.

comment #20

jse33 says ...

My picks are also near identical, except I have Departed winning Picture, Murphy getting Supporting Actor, and Babel winning Score. Of the tech awards, Art Direction and Sound Editing are tough. I did pick Pan's Labyrinth for AD and Letters for Sound Editing, but something else could easily take those categories.

BTW, doesn't Pan's Labyrinth's 6 Oscar nominations give it a big edge in the Foreign Language category over The Lives of Others, considering it only received 1 nod? Basic math says 6 nods vs 1 nod means they really liked the movie with 6.

comment #21

Craig Kennedy says ...

JSE: That's the popular line of thinking, but remember that not everyone gets to vote for Foreign Language Film. Only the people who attend Academy screenings for all 5 films get to vote in that category. I don't know how many people that boils down to, but I'm guessing it's a small fraction of the total voting pool and I'm also guessing that they tend to skew older. I believe an older voter is less likely to go for the violence and fantasy elements of Pan's Labyrinth.

It's all conjecture on my part of course so take it for what it's worth.

comment #22

dobbsy says ...

CJ: If Florian wins, he should thank you! seriously, that's the wild card, exactly. you have to see all five films and the foreign language voters skew way older and actually are very film literate, but traditional in their tastes. you can't compare doc or foreign categories to the others voted on by the great unwashed majority of oscar voters.

comment #23

Craig Kennedy says ...

Dobbsy, if Florian wins he deserves it. It took me a while to warm up to Lives of Others, but it's really stuck with me the last couple of months. I might even have to go see it again this afternoon. Pan's unfortunately just wasn't the movie I wanted it to be going in. Nothing wrong with that of course, but expectations are a killer and it was a bit of a disappointment for me.