Hammond favors "Babel"

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The Envelope's Tom O'Neil is reporting that "one of the best gurus of all -- Pete Hammond of Maxim and Hollywood Wiretap.com -- [has] just switched his best-pic prediction today from Little Miss Sunshine to Babel." But if you ask me, it's a shaky prediction based upon a dry hunch and a sense of Oscar fatigue.

"I've been talking to my Academy voter people and getting this survey, which told me last year Crash, Crash, Crash and not Brokeback at this point in the race," Hammond explains. "But I'm not getting that [this year]. It's all over the map. I talk to a Departed person, then I get a Little Miss Sunshine, then I get a lot of Babel and so there doesn't seem to be a consensus.

"A lot of them think Little Miss Sunshine is too slight for their vote as best picture. That's its biggest drawback. That and the fact that it doesn't have editing and directing nominations, which would make it the first in academy history to win that way. And The Departed is too 'genre.' Scorsese -- they appreciate him and all of that...but some people think it's not the best Scorsese. There have been better ones. So it's always odd that you're going to give an award to a guy for something that's not his best work, but that's what we often see.

"Then you've got Babel, which is really appealing to people's social sense and it has a little more to it. And it's an international picture, which is what the business has become -- worldwide. It's one drawback is the lack of guild support..."

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Posted by Jeffrey Wells on February 20, 2007 at 4:33 PM

comment #1

Craptastic says ...

Pete Hammond? Credible?

Guy's a quote whore.

Posted by Craptastic at February 20, 2007 4:42 PM

comment #2

JD says ...

Babel appeals to a naive, simplistic social sense (like Crash) and, just as The Departed isn't Scorsese's best, Babel isn't Inarritu's best. But none of that matters. If Babel wins, it will win for one simple reason: it's the most self-important, heavy-handed nominee. Those are bad things in my book, but the Academy has never been known for its appreciation of subtlety, nuance or tonal precision? There isn't a single sentimental or overtly dishonest moment in The Departed and voters will overlook that because they don't like guns (unless they're fired by troubled Arab kids).

Posted by JD at February 20, 2007 4:48 PM

comment #3

p.Vice says ...

Well, I'll be butched. Somebody out there took a shit and when he wiped his ass decided that Babel is going to win, not Little Miss Sunshine.

WHO GIVES A RUSTY FUCK!?!?!?!?!?!?!

Posted by p.Vice at February 20, 2007 5:03 PM

comment #4

bipedalist says ...

Who gives a rusty fuck, lol. What a great phrase.

It could be any of the five. I'm sticking with The Departed, though, as I have all along except for a brief moment when I thought it would be Dreamgirls and another brief moment when I thought it would be LMS. Departed I think has the stuff to take the extra 5% needed to win.

BUT WHO GIVES A RUSTY FUCK!

Posted by bipedalist at February 20, 2007 5:27 PM

comment #5

ThermosDay says ...

Apparently p.Vice gives a rusty fuck--else why is he reading this blog and why did he take the trouble to contribute to it???

Posted by ThermosDay at February 20, 2007 7:31 PM

comment #6

jeffmcm says ...

JD's analysis makes perfect sense to me, and it appeals to that sense of liberal dogoodery that so many in the Academy seem to have - that if a movie is obvious enough in its 'let's fix the world'-ness, people will choose it and be too guilty to vote for The Departed or LMS.

Posted by jeffmcm at February 20, 2007 7:34 PM

comment #7

Doug says ...

Before I watched "Babel" I was convinced "Little Miss Sunshine" would win Best Picture, and now having seen "Babel," I am more convinced than ever.
There are too many people in "Babel" doing stupid things. To paraphrase the film's campaign line, "No film this year made me feel more - frustrated." With parents and caregivers so clueless in this movie, there's a certain irony in the director dedicating the film to his children.

Posted by Doug at February 20, 2007 9:28 PM

comment #8

drgogol says ...

"it doesn't have editing and directing nominations, which would make it the first in academy history to win that way."

1932: "Grand Hotel" won Best Picture. It was the film's ONLY nomination. You can look it up.

Posted by drgogol at February 20, 2007 10:29 PM

comment #9

Craig Kennedy says ...

I hate it when people seem to take such pleasure in dumping on a film just because it's the current favorite so I apologize in advance for doing the exact same thing...

Funny the emptiest film of the lot is labeled the deepest because it's the most heavy-handed and loudest in its assertions of importance. It's like some of these prognosticators have just worn out their brains going around in circles and now they're submitting to the hammer blows of pretension coming from Babel so they can stop thinking about it.

The real question is: Has the Academy reacted the same way? We'll find out on Sunday.

Posted by Craig Kennedy at February 20, 2007 11:35 PM

comment #10

dobbsy says ...

1) Best overall film: IWO JIMA - it has those three amazing lead performances, a sense of monumental human tragedy, a situation that in strange ways echoes our time. It's measured, cinematically daring to tell so much of a story underground in muted tones in a foreign language and it immediately ranks on the list of greatest war films of all times.

And it has about as much chance of winning as the Sam Brownback for President campaign.

2) LMS: Not worth discussing, but clearly in serious contention.

3) BABEL: Thought it wasn't worth discussing until I saw LMS, which it is clearly better than. I fear victory, but prefer it to LMS.

4) THE QUEEN - Thought it was a wonderfully executed but a too-narrowly-drawn English TV-pic until I saw BABEL and LMS. Would certainly prefer to see it win over those titles, but everyone tells me (and has told me for weeks) it has no chance.

Does anyone think it might have a chance?

It is going to win best actress and it is meticulously written and directed. Does that count for anything?

5) Would be happy as hell to see DEPARTED win but I've bought into the jive that it can't because it's just a b gangster movie. But it might be one of the best b gangster movies to ever come down the pike and I don't know a single Academy voter that wasn't thrilled while they were on its roller coaster ride.

As anyone who's read my postings knows, I can't find the there there in this film, but even I would admit a kind of "who needs a there" attitude because of the terrific performances and ace direction and overall success as a classic Hollywood action-suspense picture.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Nostradamus predicted that if there were to ever be a tie in this category, it would officially signal the beginning of the end times.

Posted by dobbsy at February 20, 2007 11:57 PM

comment #11

cinemascopian says ...

The Israeli Academy Awards this year ended up with two films tying for best picture and I predicted in my blog (for all you Hebrew readers out there) that the same could happen this year in theAmerican Oscars (the tie in the editing guild awards might have proven me right).
And this is a good a chance for me to invite you all over to the first ever bi-lingual guess-the-oscars pool at http://cinemascope.co.il/oscar2007

Posted by cinemascopian at February 21, 2007 3:46 AM

comment #12

christian says ...

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Posted by christian at February 21, 2007 7:16 AM

comment #13

bipedalist says ...

"With parents and caregivers so clueless in this movie, there's a certain irony in the director dedicating the film to his children."

I was so bothered by the nanny's actions with those kids it (nearly) ruined the movie for me. The Rinko storyline was what sold me on it - I think it is too love it/hate it to win the majority vote, though. It's still down to LMS and Departed (I suppose it's possible The Queen could squeak by in a surprise upset)

Posted by bipedalist at February 21, 2007 7:35 AM

comment #14

Craig Kennedy says ...

I agree, the Japanese segment was the best. I wanted to watch that movie, but not the rest of it.

My opinions of the movie aside, I'm trying to figure out this recent groundswell in Babel predictions. Nothing has happened except that it split an editing award it should've won outright and all the sudden people are ready to coronate it. Does each film just get to be the favorite for a week or so and now it's Babel's turn because everyone is tired of thinking about the other nominees?

Posted by Craig Kennedy at February 21, 2007 9:46 AM

comment #15