comment #1

bmcintire says ...

And to no small effect, Sony/MGM's CASINO ROYALE Blu-Ray made its way to #8 in sales on Amazon's bestseller list last week when it came out. Has any other title in either HD-DVD or Blu-Ray cracked the top ten before? Even the top twenty-five?

comment #2

giantman says ...

No, Casino Royale was the first of either format. This story has been making the rounds for the last two weeks. The upcoming dual format discs, lower priced players and combo drives should start to really make this a "games over" issue. I said it from the very beginning that the PS3 would be Sony's ace in the hole.

comment #3

THX5334 says ...

The only reason Blu-Ray is surging ahead is because there are NO games for that console (Save for Resistance Fall of Man, but that is not as good as Gears of War for the XBox 360), so all they have for it is Blu-Ray movies.

It'll be interesting to see if the sales are still high when there is actual games to buy for the PS3.

Truthfully, both formats are going to go the way of the Laserdisc, as Microsoft and others are going to media-less distribution. You can already download a 720p HD movies from XBox Live for a 14 day rental. Now that they are releasing the black XBox console with the 120gb HD, as an IPTV/Movie download media center, Blu-Ray AND HD-DVD have short lives ahead.

comment #4

Craig Kennedy says ...

It wasn't so far back that it seemed like Sony had dropped the ball with the delays in the PS3. Who's laughing now?

To me it shows there still isn't a really compelling reason to run out and buy a stand alone player, but if you've already got one by way of PS3, you might as well buy the software for it.

I don't think the technology will go the way of LaserDisc though. In this case, I think it won't be a DVD-like revolution, but high definition will supercede the existing technology as more and more new movies are released in the format and more and more new cheap players are capable of playing it. Eventually there won't be a choice, but as long as the players are backwards compatible it will be a painless transition.

comment #5

Craig Kennedy says ...

I hadn't considered media-less distribution taking over before HD or BluRay take hold. That seems to depend more on studios overcoming their pirating fears.

comment #6

Rich S. says ...

TheDigitalBits.com, while not a major publication, is a respected website in this area. They've been tracking this stuff pretty closely.

That said, I agree with THX. Video on demand will kill off the next format, whichever one wins. In addition to the formats THX mentioned, the Apple movie box also ships this week. I'm not sure it will ultimately matter, but the format war assured that neither format would have a sufficient toehold with anything other than early adopters prior to the advent of HD on demand.

comment #7

JD says ...

With dual format players and discs available, this isn't even a format war anymore. Overall, HD DVD and Blu-ray are roughly the same technology and it seems likely that neither will truly take over or replace DVD. Also, by devoting all of their resources to Total HD, Warner has made certain that, at the very least, Warner HD DVDs will continue to be produced for the foreseeable future. It's also worth noting that HD DVD is still way ahead of Blu-ray in terms of interactive content, the only feature that separates the HD supplements from standard DVD. For this reason, Warner just announced a massive new Matrix box set (with over 30 hours of new features) on HD DVD only. Blu-ray simply cannot support interactive content the way HD DVD currently can.

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Warner/Disc_Announcements/The_Matrix_Trilogy_Comes_to_HD_DVD/533

comment #8

caslab says ...

I'm with THX - ultimately we'll see all media distributed digitally. Sony has even admitted this in interviews.

In the meantime, Blu-Ray seems to have a leg up thanks to the PS3. It's too bad that victory has cripped the PS3 as a video-game console.

comment #9

JD says ...

In addition to The Matrix sets, several other Warner HD DVD exclusives in the months ahead (ie. 300, the first 4 Harry Potter movies) should give HD DVD a big boost.

comment #10

Edward says ...

Even with an high speed internet connection download time for an HD film must be outrageous. I downloaded a SD film from public domain torrents and it took a good 12 hours.

comment #11

storymark says ...

The Matrix set isn't HD-DVD exclusive, it's just going to that format first. The Blue-Ray version will be out by Christmas.

comment #12

jeffmcm says ...

Edward, obviously that's why it won't be a feasible product until we have faster technology, years in the future. But it will happen.

comment #13

THX5334 says ...

I watched V for Vendetta and Superman Returns (both for the first time) through the XBox Live HD Download service. I was able to get both 720p versions of the movie in under three hours each. I live right in the middle of LA near the Grove and get about 6mbs of High speed service for what it's worth.

And, furthermore, for any gamers reading. There is not any discernable difference between 1080p and 720p on a screen under 50" (well, maybe if you ran them side by side, running the same signal and stood less than five feet back. Then you might see a difference)

The biggest obstacle for the 360 was storage space. That is why their releasing their new black XBox 360 sku with a 120gb HD. They want gamers DOWNLOADING HD movies.

Anyone in the gaming industry might already know about the "Media Center" the hackers have made on the original XBox. It uses Linux, runs content from your PC to your HD setup. Essentially already doing what Apple ITV is, but better. It runs ANY file format, upreses DVD's to 1080i, can play any media (movies, games- all mame and emulations -, music)can adjust aspect ratio from every side of the screen.

And the interface is incredible. There is a "one sheet" icon for every movie or TV content on the system. Even *ahem* content still in theatrical distribution.

Essentially, nothing that the real big leagues have coming down the pipeline is as feature rich and as user friendly as this hacker designed media center run on the old XBox.

comment #14

JD says ...

That's kind of a semantic argument, storymark. Everything's exclusive to one HD format until it becomes available on the other one. And 7 months (between the May release of The Matrix on HD DVD and the predicted December release on Blu-ray, pending the necessary breakthroughs in Blu-ray interactivity) is like a decade in format war time. In any case, I don't think these format issues are really about permanence. It's really about watching the movies you want to watch in the best format available right now. The idea that people would avoid HD now because of some hypothetical format 5 or 10 years into the future is kind of ludicrous, particularly given the recent dip in the price of HD players.

comment #15

Josh Massey says ...

See, this thread is why I consider HE "upscale." Maybe there aren't regular discussions of Truffaut or mise en scene, but I have learned a lot in these comments alone.

That rarely, if ever, happens over at places like AICN (and if it does, I can't wade through the 4,000 words of banal shit to get to the educational part.)

comment #16

bents75 says ...

You can't declare Blu-Ray a winner in this race anymore than you can declare Sony a winner in the video game race, and that's an absolutely laughable notion at this point. Sony is hurtin' big time. The idea that the PS3 is going to replace mainstream America's dvd players is about as likely as it replacing their microwaves. And I'll also argue while I'm at it that anyone (namely Sony itself) which thinks the PS2 actually made a difference in Dvd succeeding is ridiculous as well. There may be 100 million units on the market worldwide but I dont know anyone other than broke college kids and 12 year olds that actually use a PS2 as their primary dvd player. This race is intrinsically tied into the video game market now, or so says Sony, and that's not something they should brag about because they're coming up last in that department. And rightfully so. The machine is an uninspired 600 dollar paper weight.

comment #17

count.olaf says ...

Still waiting for this to be released. And then go down to 1/5 its price.

comment #18

scooterzz says ...

bents is spot on re: the game systems...after the initial launch the ps3 stalled in the water...so far, the wii has sold about five times as many units as the ps3 and it has an external hd-dvd player available for practically nothing...i'm betting that, in the end, blu-ray will be joining beta on the storage shelf.....

comment #19

dobbsy says ...

Yes, Jeff, Variety reported Blu-Ray "Victory is in the air" in this piece in Variety on Feb. 9:

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117959187.html?categoryid=20&cs=1

comment #20

Bob Violence says ...

so far, the wii has sold about five times as many units as the ps3 and it has an external hd-dvd player available for practically nothing...

There is no HD DVD player for the Wii and I can confidently say there never will be. (This is the company with so little interest in "convergence" that they didn't include DVD-Video playback with a system that uses DVDs as its storage medium.) You're thinking of the 360, which is outpacing the PS3 by a healthy amount and obviously has the largest install base (seeing how it's been out for a year and a half), but it's not currently posting anything near the Wii's numbers (335,000 vs. 228,000 in February). And I certainly wish I had the kind of money to say that $200 on top of a $300 console is "practically nothing", although none of the HD players out there fall into the impulse buy category at the moment.

Something that hasn't been mentioned yet: Blu-ray has 95% of the Japanese market and HD DVDs are becoming increasingly difficult to find at Japanese retailers. Right now HD DVD is being sustained by the North American and European markets -- nothing to sneeze at, yes, but even there its share has been steadily dropping. We're still early enough in the "HD era" that the absolute numbers for both formats come nowhere near DVD, but in relative terms it's naive to say HD DVD isn't hurting.

comment #21

TheScott2K says ...

"Blu-ray has 95% of the Japanese market and HD DVDs are becoming increasingly difficult to find at Japanese retailers. Right now HD DVD is being sustained by the North American and European markets -- nothing to sneeze at, yes, but even there its share has been steadily dropping. We're still early enough in the "HD era" that the absolute numbers for both formats come nowhere near DVD, but in relative terms it's naive to say HD DVD isn't hurting."

One of the things we learned from the last generation of consoles is that a failure in Japan can still be sustained by interest in the US and in Europe. That's why the XBox got a follow-up - it was a total dud in Japan but lived a full, prosperous life in America in Europe. It would be interesting to see if BluRay became the format of choice in Japan and HD-DVD somehow made huge gains in the US and Europe, thus creating a situation like when VCD was the movie format of choice in Asia during the later VHS era.

comment #22

unsquare says ...

maybe i'm a luddite, but i'm still convinced that the market for HD in *either* format is marginal, simply because we live in a world where people still watch pan-and-scan dvds and/or stretch widescreen images to full screen.

not to mention the fact that i watched "the incredibles" on a friends' up-scan progressive DVD player and HDTV, and it was gorgeous, more than sharp enough for me.

...and then, of course, how many people out there are going to want - let alone be able to afford - an HDTV big enough to make the quality difference even matter? I think this is a particularly telling quote, from one of the posters above:

'There is not any discernable difference between 1080p and 720p on a screen under 50"'

maybe i'll eat my words in a few years, who knows. right now, however, i'm feeling thoroughly grinch-y about the whole thing.

comment #23

David Ehrlich says ...

blu-ray will not win - it HAS won. sorry scooterz and bents (whose points and opinions are equally naive and misleading). i'd post a more coercive argument but i'm running out the door. hopefully someone will pick up the gauntlet. if not, just head on over to digitalbits.com for a solid series of arguments. shalom.

comment #24

THX5334 says ...

Dave,

you and digital bits may be right; Blu-Ray is winning over HD-DVD, but that doesn't mean it's going to remain a stable format for the next 5-10 years.

Everything is going digital and media-less. The PS3 is a game console that was used to push the format of Blu-Ray through. But the PS3 as a game console is sub standard. There is not as much on board ram on the video card, so even though it's meant to be "technologically superior" to the XBox 360, it doesn't have as much video ram, so it can't do textures the way the 360 does.

Also, because Sony designed the PS3 around the cell architecture, game developers do not know how to program it, the way they do for Nintendo and especially, the 360 since it uses the same windows platform as PC gaming.

The PS3 doesn't do true 1080p on any of the games, and even the only system selling title, Resistance Fall of Man, only comes in 720p. Even better, if you're an early HDTV adopter, with a set that DOESN'T do 720p, your PS3 DOWNGRADES all content to 480p instead of 1080i! The PS3 is so expensive to develop for, any exclusive games for the system that would justify it's price, are now going to be available for the 360, all because it's too expensive to develop games for one system.

Even better, they charge you $600 for the console, and don't even include component or HDMI cables to enable HD! XBox 360 comes with Component cables. So on top of the enormous cost of the console, you have to drop money on HDTV cables, which only cost them a couple of bucks to make, but can go as high as $100.

As a gamer, I'm not biased against consoles, I play the games to play the games, but Sony really blew it this generation all in trying to push Blu-Ray.

All of these add up to $600 debacle.

Anyone that is even a casual gamer, and thinking of buying the PS3 should reconsider until the price drops on the console.

Bottom Line - Blu-Ray is beating HD-DVD right now BECAUSE - ALL THOSE PS3 OWNERS DO NOT HAVE ANY GAMES TO PLAY FOR THEIR CONSOLE, SO THEY ARE JUSTIFYING THEIR PURCHASE BY LAPPING UP BLU-RAY TITLES, SO THEIR PS3 does "SOMETHING"!

Make sense? No games for the PS3, so PS3 owners are buying Blu-Ray so their console gets some use - hence Blu-Ray is winning (for now. They're both transitional formats, period. See "Laserdisc")

Peace!

comment #25

scooterzz says ...

bob- my bad on the external for the wii but i maintain that two bills in the world of tech gadgetry isn't much....you do give me pause re: blu-ray supremacy though...

comment #26

OddDuck says ...

I recently bought a higher end 46" 1080p LCD. Instead of buying either HD-DVD or Blu-Ray player, I spent a little, but not a lot less and bought myself an Oppo 981 upscaling DVD player - it has an excellent processor that upscales DVD's to 1080p, and the results can be stunning with the right DVD (the better the transfer and quality of source material, the better the upconversion). I went this route because, hey, either of these new formats could very well be dead in two years, but my DVD collection will still be in my living room.

And truth be told, native 1080p ain't the end all be all. The Imaging Science Foundation ranks resolution something like fifth on criteria for a good picture. Color accuracy, contrast ratio, and some other shit I don't remember all rank above it. That's why I'd much rather watch a plain old DVD on a Pioneer Plasma that doesn't even display 720p than an HD-DVD or Blu-Ray on an off-brand 1080p panel with terrible electronics. Even your average joe on the street would immediately spot the difference there.

comment #27

D.Z. says ...

http://www.somethingawful.com/d/news/sony-playstation-youtube.php

comment #28

le corbeau says ...

"That rarely, if ever, happens over at places like AICN (and if it does, I can't wade through the 4,000 words of banal shit to get to the educational part.)"

But Josh, AICN GOTTA EAT!!!!!!!

Seriously, lots of people think downloading will finish off the physical object distribution method, but the collecting impulse among people is pretty damn hardy. They may be collecting CDs less and less, but that's partly because all new music sucks (I have this on good authority from my fellow 40-year-olds) and anyway, music is way too expensive. (If CDs had followed a price-slashing curve like DVDs have people might be buying tons of $6.99 CDs right now; but when I can get four movies in a box set for $19.99 or one CD for $16.99, I buy a lot more movies.) Anyway, a lot of us have divided the world into things you just want to see and things you want to own in a nice box on a shelf, I'm not convinced that will go away even when downloading is more logical in many ways.

comment #29

TL says ...

Bottom Line - Blu-Ray is beating HD-DVD right now BECAUSE - ALL THOSE PS3 OWNERS DO NOT HAVE ANY GAMES TO PLAY FOR THEIR CONSOLE

Actually, the antecdotal evidence I've seen indicates that PS3s are selling because home theater nuts see it as the cheapest way to get into a high-definition format. That it can be used as a game console is consolation if Blu-Ray format bombs.

comment #30

TL says ...

Meant to add -- Even if gamers are buying Blu Rays b/c they have nothing else to do with the consoles doesn't mean that they will stop buying Blu Rays just because, say, GTA IV gets released.

comment #31

le corbeau says ...

Although game consoles are probably an important part of winning over early adopters, let's remember that all video game consoles only have about a 30% penetration in the US (and the PS3 has only a tiny part of that) while DVD players are in 80% of US households. I'd be careful about extrapolating too far from such a tiny percentage, however influential it can be.

comment #32

giantman says ...

Lots of Microsoft lovers in this thread, yeesh, they make me all squirmy. What they forget however is the overwhelming amount of PS2 and PS1 games still on the market, that the PS3 plays because it is 98% backwards compatable. This is a HUGE DEAL, especially when you have kids that you've spent thousands of dollars on games! Believe me. The Xbox has been a TECHNICAL better console for a very long time, and it never mattered to anyone but a gear head. Now you can get a game console AND an HD Player together, and everyone I've talked to, sees that as a HUGE advantage.

As for downloading HD Movies, eventually that'll be cool, but again, they'll need to be burned on to something permenant eventually. Right now my guess is that will be a Blu-Ray Disc.

comment #33

THX5334 says ...

I love Sony, really I do. And I will buy a PS3. When the console price drops and the software library justifies it.

TL, you are very right. Many Home Theatre peeps are buying the PS3 because it does have the least compatibility issues with Blu-Ray Discs. Therefore it is the absolute best Blu-Ray player on the market right now. Excellent point.

Okay, my last gamer bitch about the PS3 and then I'll say something nice about it. They took the rumble out of the pads! (Hopefully coming back)

Something nice: The PS3 is very much built to be a n excellent media center. It has removeable Sata drives so you can increase storage space at will, you can load multiple and linux operating systems.

The machine has great potential. We have one where I work. But there's just NO games to justify the $600 price. Stop labeling truth as Microsoft Fanboyism.

I have a 360 and a Wii. And the Wii kicks ass.

comment #34

THX5334 says ...

Also, Giantman, backwards compatibility issues on the PS3 on many machines has been less than ideal and extremely glitchy. No way are the %98 of the games compatablity. It's software emulation my friend, and as you said, that library is HUGE.

Oh, and what's the game I'm playing right now?

God of War II on the PLAYSTATION 2!

So anyone saying I'm a console loyalist and not a real gamer can go eat a dick.

(Just doing my part to make HE, one of the more upscale and classy movie sites)

comment #35

Silverscreenvideos says ...

Digital downloads are never going to become the viewing medium of choice for the average person because the average person doesn't know how to do it and doesn't want to take the time to learn how to do it.

What he wants is a machine that he can buy for under $100 that he can pop a disk into that will look good and that he can find lots of titles for at his local video store.

I'm not sure at what point that is going to happen for either format, but it's still 2-3 years away, and even then it's going to be a long time, if ever, before the bulk of the thousands of DVD titles, many of them catalogue films that don't sell all that well to begin with, are released in any HD format.

comment #36

giantman says ...

I love GOD OF WAR 2 and I'm playing it on my PS3, so what's the point? My son has hundreds of PS1 and PS2 titles and EVERY single one plays on our PS3, so in my house it is 100% backwards compatable, I was being nice when I said 98%. I have nothing against the XBOX, other than it doesn't have a HD player built into it. And the Wii IS a cool toy I suppose and a good cheap way to get kids interested in gaming. No doubt SONY hurried the PS3 to market before the games were ready and they still sold a whole %$#& of consoles.

Just last night at Best Buy I heard the workers explaining this to several people wondering which format they should buy, probably a half-dozen or so and they recommended Blu-Ray to every one of them! Despite the HD-DVD advantages. The word is out and the slide is on.

I'm just sayin'. Come back in 2-3 years and if I'm wrong, then I'll be very apologetic.

Oh, and THX5334, anyone that loves Microsoft already sucks enough dicks for all of us.

comment #37

bents75 says ...

Giantman, your son has "hundreds" of games and has actually popped everyone of them into the PS3 and tried them?

Hundreds? As in at least 200, and he's tried them all?

For what reason? Unless it was purely to make this point.

Granted, the lack of anything else to play on the PS3 is reason enough to go back to the last generation...but I'm still puzzled by the "hundreds" comment. I'd call bullshit on that if you had simply said one hundred.

comment #38

giantman says ...

bents75 - obviously you don't have children with video games, the trade-in market is a big deal and you need to know if they play or not before you can trade among your friends, or on eBay, or wherever. And yes, at last count right before Christmas, he had 213 PS1 and PS2 games. And in our neighborhood that is among the lowest counts. (Honestly most of them are games he picked up for $5 or in trade for something else, its like a rotating door, you pay 'em for awhile and then pass them on.)