comment #1

lesterg says ...

An early 90's-throwback children's film, a trashy horror sequel and an Antoine Fuqua flick.

With the exception of 300, Reign and Zodiac (if it hangs on) this could the ugliest top 15 in recent memory. It's like the January that never ended.

comment #2

dobbsy says ...

it's not over...grindhouse is coming.

comment #3

jeffmcm says ...

Thank god.

comment #4

christian says ...

and at 27 percent on rotten tomatoes.
not that the kids will give a shit.

comment #5

lesterg says ...

Grindhouse is a toss-up. I trust Tarantino, but I haven't enjoyed anything Rodriguez has done in a decade.

comment #6

dobbsy says ...

let me repeat that: it's not over...meaning...january

comment #7

p.Vice says ...

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

comment #8

jeffmcm says ...

Today is Mar. 23.

comment #9

EDouglas says ...

Jeff, to put it politely, you really shouldn't be trying to analyze this tracking/market research data and putting a number to it because frankly, you kind of suck at it (Nikki Finke isn't much better). 97% awareness for TMNT would be expected because it's based on very well known cartoon/comic/movie characters...that doesn't always reflect a 97% awareness of the movie necessarily but they show a trailer or clip to the people being polled and they ask "have you heard of this?" and usually, they'll go "yeah, I've heard of the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles"...hence high awareness. The same thing goes for sequels... I remember Bridget Jones 2 tracking insanely high but that just reflected the fact that many women knew about the character.

The key is the 29% interest on the day a movie opens is NOT THAT GOOD. Of course, being a kids movie, it's hard to guage a number amount, but I would not say that's a sign of a $30 million opener, not with so many other choices this weekend.

comment #10

EDouglas says ...

And Shooter's 36% interest, 10% first choice is much better than TMNT's 97% awareness. The other thing that you're not getting a clearer picture with these numbers (which are averages) are the demos... a movie that's "four quadrant" i.e. tracking well/equally among all four groups will likely do better business than one that's weighted towards certain audiences. I'm sure that Hill Have Eyes II is all males under 25 (most of whom won't be able to get in) and that means big Friday, sucky rest of weekend.

comment #11

jeffmcm says ...

Plus waving those numbers around like we all know what they mean and are impressed is pointless.

comment #12

dobbsy says ...

wake me when there's a movie worth discussing, not including herzog, who's always worth discussing...even if the movie is 20 yrs old.

comment #13

EDouglas says ...

Well, to make it simpler, first number is awareness, second number is definite interest and third number is first choice (i.e. what number of those polled would make that their first choice in any given weekend... it's a bit deceiving because it's putting movies three weeks out against movies opening the same week). What JW leaves out is the "definite not interest" which can really weigh numbers... if you have 20% definitely interested and 25% definitely not interested, that's telling you a lot. And again, the demographics are important. Those number are averages of the four demos, males under 25, males over 25, females under 25, females over 25. (Sometimes they poll specific groups like kids/African Americans, etc)

But it's really deceiving and I've stopped using tracking when researching my column because really it's only there to guage how many people know your movie exists and whether you need to step up marketing (or change it). I'm sure the 0% on Mimzy led to the two weekends of preview screenings.

comment #14

dobbsy says ...

per the other postings about herzog's "rescue dawn" getting sidetracked, at least new yawkers can see "cobra verde," one of herzog's key entries in the "colonial madness in south america" genre.

as for grindhouse, can't wait till the screening reactions start rolling in. january continues....

comment #15

scooterzz says ...

saw grindhouse last night at the chinese and was horribly disappointed....the rodriguez seg. was pretty good (as was intermission) but the tarantino seg. was painful....and three hours is just a tad much for what is ultimately a novelty...that said, i'm guessin' a pretty big opening....
and---apropos of nothing...i'm watching the first two hours of the sopranos while doing this and i think the hard core fans are going to be pleased...no disappointments here so far....

comment #16

D.Z. says ...

scooter: "the rodriguez seg. was pretty good (as was intermission)"

But McGowan doesn't go nude, huh?

comment #17

Mike Binder says ...

Scooterrzz

You're a pudhead.

Quentin Tarantino.

(Kiddingg!!!)

comment #18

scooterzz says ...

dz--sadly, not in the rodriguez seg...if she does in the tarantino seg., it's while i was counting tiles in the ceiling.....
binder--what're you doing here!?!?...you're supossed to be counting money.......

comment #19

D.Z. says ...

scooter: I knew they'd cop out on that, cus they did the same with Alba in Sin City.

comment #20

jeffmcm says ...

Did you really expect otherwise? These are actresses with agents.

comment #21

dobbsy says ...

scooterzz: you gonna be the one to tell all these film nerds there's no santa-tino claus?

comment #22

Craig Kennedy says ...

I was just sitting here trying to think of something more boring than Jeff repeating box office tracking figures and all I could come up with was EDouglas explaining at length why he's wrong. I've got to admit thought it was a close call between that and a Suze Orman PBS pledge drive marathon.