Weekend tracking
Tracking indicates that TMNT (Warner Bros,., 3.23), the jacked-up CGI'ed Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles flick, is going to take the weekend. It's at 83, 25 and 5, but you always have to figure higher with kiddie movies because phone surveyors don't talk to six year-olds. It could do between $20 million and $25 million.
Close on the turtles' heels will be Antoine Fuqua and Mark Wahlberg's Shooter (Paramount) -- 59, 37, 10. It could do $12 to $15 million, maybe a bit more.
Everything else opening this weekend is looking weak. Mike Binder's Reign Over Me is at 56, 34 5 -- good reviews so far, but the dogs aren't eating the hamburger. The 5% first choice is better than last week, but when you're four days away from opening you need to be at 10% or 12% or you're dead meat.
The Hills Have Eyes 2 is at 74, 26 and 7 -- marginal. Robert Shaye's The Last Mimzy, which was previewed last Saturday night, is at 48, 24 and 5. Pride (Lionsgate), the swim-team movie with Terence Howard, is at 36, 29 and 2.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on March 19, 2007 at 3:42 PM
comment #1
jeffmcm
says ...
You really could save yourself some typing and not bother with the numbers - they're meaningless to, I would guess, 99.9% of your readership, without interpretation.
Posted by jeffmcm
at March 19, 2007 4:08 PM
comment #2
gruver1
says ...
Wells to jeffmcm: What, explain what the three figures mean (general awareness, definite interest and first choice) every time I run them? People are too dim to figure it out, you mean? Be my guest... you do it. I'm to the next story.
Posted by gruver1
at March 19, 2007 4:40 PM
comment #3
jeffmcm
says ...
Yes, explain that or like I said, leave them off. Since nobody knows if 25 definite interest is good or not without you explaining it - just provide the interpretation. Less clutter = better.
Posted by jeffmcm
at March 19, 2007 5:10 PM
comment #4
thatmovieguy
says ...
What a shame: TMNT is thoroughly mediocre, cheap-looking and utterly bland while THE LAST MIMZY actually has some intriguing ideas and some suspense. The kids at the preview screening were certainly enthralled. But of course, parents will always go with the trite and predictable "name" product instead of taking a chance on something out of the ordinary. At least Disney's MEET THE ROBINSONS will be along next week to knock the Turtles out of the ring.
Posted by thatmovieguy
at March 19, 2007 5:29 PM
comment #5
D.Z.
says ...
That's not really a lot for TMNT, if you adjust for inflation for the last film.
Posted by D.Z.
at March 19, 2007 6:56 PM
comment #6
p.Vice
says ...
I was under the impression that jeffmcm's comment was more along the lines of "H-E readers obviously know that box office means shit when it comes to talkin' about real movies, so really, who gives a flying fuck what TMNT's tracking figures are."
And if not seconding that thought, I first it.
Posted by p.Vice
at March 19, 2007 7:03 PM
comment #7
jeffmcm
says ...
That's not what I meant, but I completely agree.
Posted by jeffmcm
at March 19, 2007 7:41 PM
comment #8
MovieBob
says ...
Yeah, saw "Mimzy" last weekend. Review here:
http://moviebob.blogspot.com/2007/03/review-last-mimzy.html
Short version: Call it "The Secret" meets "Mac & Me." It's simply a dud, well-meaning or not. It's ugly, akward, unpleasant, overlong and half-baked. Lots of "big ideas" that don't go anywhere, can't make up it's mind if it wants to be Futurist claptrap or New Age claptrap, and it rips off the likes of "E.T." so brazenly it's genuinely shocking... and sad, as in terms of kiddie scifi it can't even rise to the level of "Escape To Witch Mountain."
The numbers on TMNT are going to surprise people, just you watch. The exact same audience of 20s/30s grownup "fanboys" that MADE "300" all grew up with The Turtles in some form and will turn out for the nostalgia fix, PLUS the franchise got big with a new generation of kids a few years back so there's that, too. Hopefully it's also good, but either way it's looking at a potentially huge weekend.
Posted by MovieBob
at March 19, 2007 10:22 PM
comment #9
D.Z.
says ...
300 did well, because it was an adult war epic for comic book geeks which, unlike Tank Girl, did well, because it looked like an epic. TMNT was something that us former kids enjoyed for laughs, but quickly forgot about, much like the live-action Fat Albert and that crappy cat movie with Bill Murray. And the franchise is hardly as "big" as it was in its heyday. The new cartoon isn't making enough money for the current licensor, which is treading water.
Posted by D.Z.
at March 19, 2007 10:47 PM
comment #10
chicbn872
says ...
I like the numbers Jeff. I dig knowing what horrendous movies the general idiot public want to see. Seriously...Ghost Rider is at $110 million and Zodiac can't make a buck. It's insanity.
Posted by chicbn872
at March 20, 2007 5:58 AM
comment #11
chicbn872
says ...
I like the numbers Jeff. I dig knowing what horrendous movies the general idiot public want to see. Seriously...Ghost Rider is at $110 million and Zodiac can't make a buck. It's insanity.
Posted by chicbn872
at March 20, 2007 5:58 AM
comment #12
chicbn872
says ...
I like the numbers Jeff. I dig knowing what horrendous movies the general idiot public want to see. Seriously...Ghost Rider is at $110 million and Zodiac can't make a buck. It's insanity.
Posted by chicbn872
at March 20, 2007 5:59 AM
comment #13
Josh Massey
says ...
"That's not really a lot for TMNT, if you adjust for inflation for the last film."
Huh? I'm pretty sure they don't want any comparisons to Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles III. This isn't part IV we're dealing with here.
Posted by Josh Massey
at March 20, 2007 6:35 AM
comment #14
Cadavra
says ...
The first TMNT opened in the spring of 1990 to $25 million, which gobsmacked everyone (and would be more like a $50 million opening today). If this new one can't open to much more than that, they got huge-ass problems, especially as this one undoubtedly cost a hell of a lot more.
Posted by Cadavra
at March 20, 2007 10:24 AM