comment #1

Josh Massey says ...

No offense to Binder, but Sandler has no shot - deserving or not, the movie was too early in the year, it didn't make enough money to be remembered by the Academy (sad it works that way), and well, it's Sandler.

Hell, Binder has been through this scenario before - both Joan Allen and Kevin Costner definitely deserved nominations for The Upside of Anger.

comment #2

Mr. Kockum says ...

Why isn't There Will Be Blood on as Best Picture?

I understand the reasons why Foreign Films and Visual Effects aren't mentioned, unclear and too clear, but why no Best Animated Film category? Too uncool?

And, man, do you have high hopes for Charlie Wilson's War. Even gets a Costume nod and everything.

comment #3

gruver1 says ...

Wells to Kockum: See? You reminded me about the Paul Thomas Anderson....thank you. I've only got two and half brains and eight arms...all input is much appreiciated.

comment #4

Mr. Kockum says ...

Sure thing. Oscar Balloons are fun.

comment #5

gruver1 says ...

Wells to Anybody: Way behind the eight ball on '07 Best Foreign Films except for "La Vie en Rose." (Wait...was that put forward by France as an '06 contender? Don't remember this.) If anyone has any other notions, please forward. I tend to be bored by animation, but I would of course be derelict to ignore the Best Animated Feature category...I'm just not up to speed yet.

comment #6

Mark G. says ...

I don't like his movies, but usually there's always a little Oscar buzz for Wes Anderson.
His new movie THE DARJEELING LIMITED with Natalie Portman, Jason Schwartzman, Adrien Brody, Owen Wilson and many more opens in December just like Alison Eastwoods directorial debut RAILS & TIES with Kevin Bacon and Marcia Gay Harden. If the movie's any good, it could pick up some noms as well as the Academy loves the Hollywood Genes...

comment #7

Mark G. says ...

LA VIE EN ROSE opened in France this year and the deadline for Foreign language is usually October if I remember correctly...

comment #8

Mark G. says ...

Some more:
Scott Rudin is a great Oscar producer. His Henry VIII movie THE OTHER BOLEYN GIRL sure has chances for its actresses Natalie Portman and Scarlett Johansson, maybe even Eric Bana as Henry...

And maybe I'm very much off, but could 1408 be this year's THE SIXTH SENSE?

With FRIDA there was a fierce battle between Taymor and her producer, the movie was still very good, so why don't you count ACROSS THE UNIVERSE in?

comment #9

Mark G. says ...

And finally:
Brad Pitt and cinematography for THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD
Didn't the last rounds of test screenigs score pretty good?

comment #10

Josh Massey says ...

The animated nominees seem fairly obvious: Bee Movie, Ratatouille and Shrek the Third, with Meet the Robinsons and Surf's Up to slip in if the category nominates five. The only real interesting thing about this category, I guess, is if The Simpsons Movie can get a nom.

comment #11

Nick Rogers says ...

I would have to think that, at the very least, "Ratatouille" would be a strong contender for animated film. And no, I don't think "1408" will be this year's "Sixth Sense."

comment #12

Breedlove says ...

I'm racking my brain here...

Ang Lee's movie, 3:10 To Yuma, Assasination of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford, Goya's Ghost?, Leatherheads, The Golden Compass, Margaret. Did anyone mention the Charlie Kauffman movie? Is that coming out this year?

comment #13

Breedlove says ...

Todd Haynes' 'I'm Not There'...

comment #14

Breedlove says ...

'Michael Clayton'

comment #15

Colin says ...

Josh, I'm hoping that Paprika might cause a ripple as well:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0851578/

comment #16

Ben C says ...

1408 looks more like this year's Secret Window.

Thinking maybe Editing, Cinematography, Sound & Set design for My Blueberry Nights... maybe even a Supp. Actor nom in there. Depends how it plays.

comment #17

christian says ...

gee, none of thes films are even out yet.

what's there to predict?

comment #18

Breedlove says ...

'The Bucket List' sounds awful but you have to keep Nicholson and Freeman w/ cancer in mind for noms. Also 'Paranoid Park.'

On a different note, the other day we were discussing movies coming out in the next couple of weeks. I just noticed that 'Jindabyne' is coming out soon. Could be really good. 'Lantana' was really good.

comment #19

adaml says ...

Agree with the Michael Clayton comment. George Clooney, Tom Wilkinson, Tilda Swinton. Couple of acting noms there possibly.

comment #20

Mike Schaefer says ...

If you can list Sandler, you should also list Chris Cooper for "Breach"

comment #21

romeoisbleeding says ...

You had to add Robert Downey jr. best supporting actor for Zodiac! come on! he was awesome!

comment #22

romeoisbleeding says ...

You have to add Robert Downey jr. best supporting actor for Zodiac! come on...he was awesome!

comment #23

Doug says ...

Jeff, I think you can safely remove Jane Fonda for Supporting Actress. If she says "Georgia Rule" in the movie even one more time than she does in the trailer it will be unbearable.

comment #24

MattM says ...

Some miscategorizations:

Travolta is a lead actor in "Hairspray." That part is MUCH expanded in the musical from the original movie, and Fierstein won lead actor at the Tonys.

Helena Bonham Carter is a lead actress in "Sweeney Todd."

And while I can't see Sandler getting nominated, Binder's screenplay ought to make the "original screenplay" list.

Another contender from Sweeney might be Sacha Baron Cohen for Supporting Actor.

And given the Academy's love for the commercial favorite, Simpsons Movie seems likely to make it into animated feature.

comment #25

Nick Rogers says ...

Am I the only one who thinks "The Simpsons Movie" is not going to be some sort of massive hit? (readies himself for the barrage of ninja stars)

comment #26

christian says ...

of course, i would toss in the supporting actor dark horse of kurt russell in GRINDHOUSE.

comment #27

vulgar71 says ...

Amazing! I figured there would be tons of bitching about Paul Haggis's (Haggis'?) In the Valley of Elah being on the list.

On The Simpsons Movie: If it's good it'll be nominated. If it's been written by the writing staff of the past couple of seasons it will be "meh" with a few flashes of brilliance and won't be nominated. (What a horribly long sentence that was.) Of course I will see it whether it is good, bad, or somewhere inbetween.

comment #28

Dan Revill says ...

Like the new logo Jeff. It is much snazzier.

As for upcoming films, I think that pretty much all of the films I would have mentioned are there. Although for best visual effects, I think it would be same to put Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, Spider-man 3 and Transformers on a preliminary list.

comment #29

actionman says ...

if there was any justice, JESSE JAMES would be up for every possible award.

comment #30

The Winchester says ...

Vulgar: The Simsposns Movie was written by the classic writers of what's referred to in SImpsons circles as "The golden age". It's all the classic writers from when the show was amazing, so I have a feeling Simpsons will be strong in the animation category.

And for screenplay, I'm gonna go out on a limb and suggest John August for The Nines. (If enough people like it and/or get it)

comment #31

Mr. Gittes says ...

Jeff, what do you see in Michael Clayton?? Is there some early good buzz? This is Gilroy's directorial debut and he's a good writer but not amazing or anything.

comment #32

Nick Rogers says ...

For Best Animated, I'd say "Ratatouille," "The Simpsons Movie" and "Bee Movie" would be the three likeliest. Something tells me no on "Shrek the Third," and "Surf's Up" strikes me as being viewed as "Open Season"-esque.

comment #33

D.Z. says ...

I doubt Fonda will even be nominated for Georgia Rule, because the Academy wants to woo the red-staters. Even if the organization did give her an award, no one's gonna see it anyway. I'm guessing the young people who saw Monster-In-Law don't even know who the hell Fonda was, and don't really care. They saw it, cus they liked the Wedding Planner. Burton's too eccentric for Sweeney Todd to get a directorial nod, but Depp might get another Best Actor nom. I also don't think Travolta will make it, because it'd mean John Waters would be attending.

Josh: I can imagine them nominating Sandler for the ratings, if nothing else.

KockumL: Will there be anough animated films for a Best Animated Film award this year?

Colin: Paprika's ineligible, since it was submitted for last year's awards. :( In spite of Besson's live-action films qualifying as cartoons, Arthur and the Invisibles was not considered an animated film, because it was half live-action; so the slots for that year were downgraded to three.

Winchester: Whether or not it has the good writers, The Simpsons is tired, and no one can save it.

comment #34

cobhome says ...

I think - or maybe I hope - Todd haynes "I'm Not There" wil be the film that finally gets Haynes the recognition his work has earned him - it is a very interesting approach to a subject - Dylan - that is big for lots of people - and has a loaded cast - one would think given the comments floating around that Blanchett at least would be up for supporting(?) and maybe even Ledger -

Leatherheads seems period piece rom- com sort of thing to me - not award consideration enough - but Michael Clayton might be interesting -

Is the "blackface" controversy around "Mighty Heart" going to be an issue re: response to that film and Jolie's performance??

I think "Atonement" looks really interesting - might be Vanessa Redgrave's year

comment #35

Ben C says ...

Is anything ever self contained? It's always a reaction to the years before. With 2 years of Forest and Phillip, and British Dame's Best Actress, I'm thinking Academy'll be jonesing to move out the character actor field and seriously starfuck. Bodes well for the higher profile guys at year's end. Could Depp's year.

But shoot - who knows anything? We`re all just wanking now.

comment #36

jeffmcm says ...

DZ, the Academy does _not_ want to "woo the red-staters", whatever that means. Fonda won't get nominated because the movie will probably be mediocre.

Sandler will _not_ get nominated for ratings. Maybe the Golden Globes will do that, but it'll be a cold day in hell when the Academy gives Adam Sandler an award of any kind - and I say this as a guy who likes his movies more than I hate them. Plus, he wouldn't be a ratings draw anyway in an awards capacity.

Re: animated films, you only need 8 films for there to be an award. Meet the Robinsons, Ratatouille, The Simpsons Movie, Bee Movie, Shrek 3, Surf's Up, Aqua Teen Hunger Force, TMNT, Food Fight, Alvin and the Chipmunks, maybe Zemeckis's Beowulf...

comment #37

VedaPierce says ...

Even if Cate Blanchett is the best thing since sliced bread in The Golden Age, she won't win. I think the Academy will have a knee-jerk reaction next year against historical biography, particularly pertaining to QE1.

comment #38

adorian says ...

I can understand why there are only 3 nominees for animated film, but why are there only 3 for best makeup? Don't most films have makeup? If you can have 5 nominees for costume, it seems to me you should have 5 for makeup.

comment #39

Gabriel says ...

"Southland Tales" in all major categories -picture, director, screenplay, actor (Stiffler), actress (Buffy), etc.

comment #40

Gabriel says ...

"Nothing Is Private", the new Alan Ball film based on the novel Towelhead.

A young Arab-American girl struggles with her sexual obsession, a bigoted Army reservist and her strict father during the Gulf War. Based on Alicia Erian's novel "Towelhead".

I bet it turns out better than his "American Beauty" partner's take on the Gulf War.

comment #41

wholovesya says ...

You can cross A Mighty Heart, Evening (are you serious?), Things We Lost In The Fire and The Kite Runner off that Bes Picture list now. Insert: The Other Boylen Girl, Into The Wild, Stop/Loss (um, hello?)as candidates. Gotta say though, this is like Poland sticking his foot in his mouth on Hairspray. I've got a screenshot for posterity.

comment #42

Ishmael says ...

If Atonement warrants all those other mentions then you should also have Saoirse Ronan in there as a supporting actress candidate.

comment #43

Hopscotch says ...

Youth without Youth sounds good, but I bet is in that artistic, avant garde area that doesn't get awards attention.

comment #44

romeoisbleeding says ...

thank you Mr. Wells! I appreciate it!

comment #45

Nikki61 says ...

Director, Screenplay, Actress and Supporting actor for "Rendition" but not best picture and best actor for Jake Gyllenhaal - I don´t see the logic...