MCN "Grindhouse" predictions

Good heavens...has anyone looked at the "Road to Box-Office Hell" Grindhouse projections on the front page of Movie City News? Poland didn't jump in, but Coming Soon projected $25.8 million, Box-Office Guru said $25 million, Box-Office Prophet said $24.3 million, and the more cautious Entertainment Weekly analyst said $19 million. Coming Soon's Ed Douglas informs that Box-Office Guru predicted a $29 million haul....hah! (My estimate, posted yesterday, was that it would do around $20 million.) Apologies for my earlier dyslexic posting -- Douglas predicted $25.8 million, not $28.5 million.

Posted by Jeffrey Wells on April 7, 2007 at 10:33 AM

comment #1

christian Author Profile Page says ...

so you're saying that tracking is bullshit?

btw, it's saturday morning. the weekend has just started.

Posted by christian Author Profile Page at April 7, 2007 11:07 AM

comment #2

bmcintire Author Profile Page says ...

Well, it barely made it past $5M on Friday (ARE WE THERE YET fared better on its third day of release), so even Jeff's forecast may have been optimisitc. Shocked.

Posted by bmcintire Author Profile Page at April 7, 2007 12:08 PM

comment #3

EDouglas Author Profile Page says ...

Gotta work on that dyslexia, Jeff... my prediction was $25.8... still high, but not quite as high as BoxOfficeMojo who predicted over $29 million.

Posted by EDouglas Author Profile Page at April 7, 2007 12:27 PM

comment #4

The Winchester Author Profile Page says ...

It's still a three hour movie that's not playing on nearly the amount of screens as Are We Done Yet or Firhouse Dog, which can get two showings in for every one of Grindhouse. And unless Hobbits are involved, most people tend to have trouble sitting through a three hour movie.

Posted by The Winchester Author Profile Page at April 7, 2007 12:37 PM

comment #5

D.Z. Author Profile Page says ...

I didn't think it'd make more than $17-$20 million myself...

Posted by D.Z. Author Profile Page at April 7, 2007 1:19 PM

comment #6

SHR Author Profile Page says ...

Maybe the studios will just stop making idealess,vapid shit like this

Posted by SHR Author Profile Page at April 7, 2007 1:33 PM

comment #7

jeffmcm Author Profile Page says ...

(a) it's not vapid
(b) that'll never happen

Posted by jeffmcm Author Profile Page at April 7, 2007 1:38 PM

comment #8

christian Author Profile Page says ...

yes, we'll get gifts like ARE WE DONE YET...

Posted by christian Author Profile Page at April 7, 2007 1:48 PM

comment #9

Bob Violence Author Profile Page says ...

so you're saying that tracking is bullshit?

I've read that the actual tracking was around $15 million, which lots of people didn't want to believe but now seems to be on-target.

Posted by Bob Violence Author Profile Page at April 7, 2007 2:15 PM

comment #10

cust71 Author Profile Page says ...

I was at "300", and the trailer for "Grindhouse" came on. Now keep in mind, I'm in a moderately sized city in the midwest, but the place was packed with a crowd that should've been into this movie. But no one really got it, except for me, a friend of mine, and a few others. I'm disappointed, but not surprised.

Posted by cust71 Author Profile Page at April 7, 2007 2:46 PM

comment #11

corey3rd Author Profile Page says ...

saw the first screening on Friday and there was about a dozen people in the 300 seat theater. We enjoyed it, but it's easy to see that this wasn't supposed to come out on Easter weekend. You figure Harvey and Bob would learn a lesson from Black Christmas.

This was all about summer no brainer time.

Posted by corey3rd Author Profile Page at April 7, 2007 3:18 PM

comment #12

Hallick Author Profile Page says ...

"...the place was packed with a crowd that should've been into this movie. But no one really got it, except for me, a friend of mine, and a few others. I'm disappointed, but not surprised."

I think your crowd that didn't really get it came to the showing I went to today. Two small laughs the whole time, and ZERO reaction to the last shot of the "Thanksgiving" trailer.

Friday night crowds are a migraine and a half most times, but the matinee people could drain the life out of my local fertility clinic.

Posted by Hallick Author Profile Page at April 7, 2007 4:22 PM

comment #13

gruver1 Author Profile Page says ...

Wells to Hallick: "the matinee people could drain the life out of my local fertility clinic" -- a pretty funny line. Dead audiences can kill almost any move. A movie without a good lively audience is only half of what it seems to be WITH a good lively group. Crowd reaction is as much of a tonic in the watching of a film as it is with live theatre.

Posted by gruver1 Author Profile Page at April 7, 2007 4:26 PM

comment #14

EDouglas Author Profile Page says ...

Thanks for fixing that, Jeff... at least I'm in company being so wrong this weekend. Tracking wasn't really that bad, not for this kind of movie, but in hindsight, it was very much like Snakes on a Plane, in that all the buzz/hype was being created by the media and there really wasn't as much interest among regular moviegoers to sit through three hours of blood and guts... maybe if there was more nudity.

Posted by EDouglas Author Profile Page at April 7, 2007 5:12 PM

comment #15

CambridgeCat Author Profile Page says ...

It doesn't seem possible both halves of this movie cost the same amount. Does Rodriguez come out looking worse than QT if his half cost significantly more, which is what I would guess.

Posted by CambridgeCat Author Profile Page at April 7, 2007 5:27 PM

comment #16

gruver1 Author Profile Page says ...

Wells to Cambridge Cat: Rodriguez's zombie movie has 96% of the CG and makeup and effects, and remember also that he shut down production for a month or longer in order to emotionally recover from the Rose McGowan affair and marital meltdown when producer Elizabeth Avellan hit the ceiling and sued for divorce. (Wait, I'm not supposed to talk about that...right?) Tarantino had no effects that I could spot except...SPOILER!...for that head-on car-crash scene.

Posted by gruver1 Author Profile Page at April 7, 2007 6:03 PM

comment #17

CambridgeCat Author Profile Page says ...

Wells, that's what I was saying. My assumption was based on having already seen it. So, does that make QT less culpable if it should be deemed a flop? Seems like it could drive a wedge between the two homies.

Posted by CambridgeCat Author Profile Page at April 7, 2007 6:10 PM

comment #18

The Winchester Author Profile Page says ...

At the same time, though, Rodriguez has always been known for working on the cheap. Shooting digital, doing FX work by himself in his house, hiring friends and family, etc. While QT no doubt shot miles and miles of film for that one scene in the diner alone. (Great shot, by the way. If only I wasn't bored out of my skull from the three obnoxious women from the opening 45 minutes, and Eli Roth, the actor as irritating and non-amusing as his films.) I think, even with all the trouble from Rodriguez, they'd balance each other out.

Posted by The Winchester Author Profile Page at April 8, 2007 1:57 AM

comment #19

D.Z. Author Profile Page says ...

Wow, looks like even those modest estimates were being generous. Quentin hasn't had it this bad since Four Rooms. Teehee.

Posted by D.Z. Author Profile Page at April 8, 2007 10:40 AM

comment #20

Pelham123 Author Profile Page says ...

I saw "Grindhouse" with a wildly appreciative sold out crowd in L.A. (The Vista) on Saturday afternoon. Everyone in the large group I was with really dug all aspects of the movies & trailers. We all had some problems with Tarantino's "Death Proof" that many others have already mentioned (too much talk seemingly going nowhere), but still and all a great moviegoing experience. I'll definitely give it another looksee if for no other reason than to see how "Death Proof" plays a second time through and try to find out what Tarantino was up to. Also, Zoe Bell is out of her f***ing mind. That's a compliment.

Posted by Pelham123 Author Profile Page at April 8, 2007 11:00 AM

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