Fracture is tracking at 58, 31 and 9....figure $10 to 12 million this weekend. Hot Fuzz is at 28, 35 and 7, but that's a limited release (a few hundred screens) and I'm told it should do pretty well by that standard. In The Land of Women has been clocked at 43, 21 and 6. Vacancy is at 61, 28 and 6. Spider-Man 3 is way, way up there -- 97, 67 and 35 with two weeks to go. It could earn over $100 million. The Spider-Man films are very popular and that's fine, but how many millions will be paying to see the final chapter two weeks from now with any sense of real intrigue and excitement, and how many millions will be going because "whatever, dude... we've seen the first two and we might as well see the third." The second group is to be congratulated for behaving like good little robots.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on April 19, 2007 at 5:31 PM
comment #1
AH
says ...
Nothing wrong with robots. I wish we could all be that efficient and productive.
Posted by AH
at April 19, 2007 5:43 PM
comment #2
jeffmcm
says ...
Yes, everyone who disagrees with your elevated tastes is a slobbish robot.
Yawn.
Posted by jeffmcm
at April 19, 2007 5:58 PM
comment #3
jesse
says ...
Jeff, people actually want to see Spiderman 3 cause they actually like Spiderman. Really. People like the first two movies. I'm not saying that makes them good (although in this case they *are* both good), but to say people are just responding to whatever Sony is telling them isn't insulting so much as a twisted kind of naive. Also, you didn't really decide you hated them until the ad campaign for the third one kicked in. At least I actually believed the Pirates and LOTR movies wore you down; the Spiderman movies are crisp, funny, and have lots of nice character moments that don't involve CGI.
Posted by jesse
at April 19, 2007 7:01 PM
comment #4
MattM
says ...
How can the "want to see" number be higher than the "awareness" number, as is the case with Hot Fuzz? And interesting that numbers for In The Land of Women and Vacancy are about even with one another.
Posted by MattM
at April 19, 2007 9:07 PM
comment #5
D.Z.
says ...
So, Jeff. Any thoughts about the U.S. bailing out a terrorist while waging a War on Terror? http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070419/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/cuba_militant_released
Posted by D.Z.
at April 19, 2007 9:19 PM
comment #6
Jason
says ...
I'm going to see Spider-Man 3 because Sam Raimi directs action with cockeyed verve that tickles me right, but that must be the doing of Sony's programming. So wily!
I don't recall you being quite so venemous when the third entry of a vapid McTentpole franchise was released last summer. Mission: Impossible 3 was barren of charisma and soul, yet you rated it tops of its kind.
Save some hate for Shrek the Third. Spider-Man will at least attempt to have some measure of sincerity. Shrek 3 will be, judging from the trailer, unfunny smart-ass horseshit without end.
Posted by Jason
at April 19, 2007 9:22 PM
comment #7
D.Z.
says ...
Jason: "Shrek 3 will be, judging from the trailer, unfunny smart-ass horseshit without end."
So it'll basically be like the first two films?
Posted by D.Z.
at April 19, 2007 9:47 PM
comment #8
DarthCorleone
says ...
Give me a break. I'm allowed to enjoy a tentpole movie every now and then without being a robot. The "robots" are the ones who eat up every single one of them every single weekend without a second thought simply because that's what was advertised the most.
Posted by DarthCorleone
at April 19, 2007 10:00 PM
comment #9
PanTheFaun
says ...
Yeah, something tells me the numbers for "Hot Fuzz" are a bit off. How could awareness be 28 but Want-to-see be 35?
I have a feeling it's going to do pretty well. The promo screening in Baltimore tonight was 100% full. Granted "pretty well" for the kind of release it's getting would only be about $5-7 million, but still....
Posted by PanTheFaun
at April 20, 2007 12:36 AM
comment #10
RoyBatty
says ...
"Spider-Man 3... could earn over $100 million."
Gee, don't go out on any limbs there.
If 300 did $70M, only the most timid of forecasters, with balls firmly hidden away, hedge his bet with a "could."
I say if you want to play rotisseriebox office the bidding STARTS at $100M. What makes this interesting is that it opens on a Wednesday, however SPIDER-2 still managed to do $88M after opening on the same day. Those who want to play with the big boy high-rollers all pull out their dicks over if it will set the new 3-day weekend record. That is highly unlikely, considering that it has a 2:25min runtime.
Posted by RoyBatty
at April 20, 2007 1:33 AM
comment #11
The Winchester
says ...
But Roy, POTC 2 made $135 million in 3 days, and that ran even longer
Posted by The Winchester
at April 20, 2007 3:56 AM
comment #12
Griff
says ...
I wanted to see Spiderman 3, at least until I saw the most recent trailer. It was the Cliff's Notes of the film. Seemed to tell me every important beat and twist that was going to occur. I was pissed, but they saved me 10 bucks and 2 hours of my life. Now a really fine trailer was the one for Children of Men. It gave me a taste of the film, without giving away a lot of the reversals and conflicts, so I could enjoy the film without feeling like I'd already seen a two-minute version of it in front of an earlier screening of something else.
Posted by Griff
at April 20, 2007 6:11 AM
comment #13
Rich S.
says ...
Those who enjoyed the first two Spider-Man films and want to see the third are "robots?"
So what programming led to Jeffrey's not only attendance but actual enjoyment of Miami Vice? As rich as Bill Gates is, he could double his fortune with that source code.
Posted by Rich S.
at April 20, 2007 6:13 AM
comment #14
EDouglas
says ...
Matt, those numbers are percentage of those polled/surveyed. That means that X% was aware of the movie without any help and of that %, that many percentage wanted to see it. There are also the cases of the live in-theatre surveys in which the subject is asked questions about a movie whether they know about it or not and then are shown a trailer or clip and asked if they'd be interested in seeing that movie. Tracking is a very complex system that really can't be judged/weighted merely by those number averages that Jeff posts every week.
Posted by EDouglas
at April 20, 2007 6:55 AM
comment #15
christian
says ...
jeff, by now you shuld be able to distinguish between humans and robots...
humans enjoy the SPIDERMAN films because they were made by a genuine fan who also happens to be one of the greatest kinetic american directors and both movies have more or less expertly delivered with heart and soul what made the comic character an icon that has thrived since the 60's...
robots enjoy the POTC and SHREK films as they are committee films without a shred of vision but marketed to an increasingly bland placebic cultural landscape that worships AMERICAN IDOL and FRIENDS...
but to not include the ego-stroking MIAMI VICE as an example of hack big studio summer pandering is to miss the point...
unless MIAMI VICE is made for cyborgs.
Posted by christian
at April 20, 2007 9:49 AM
comment #16
Balthazar
says ...
Fully agree with Griff. ... That Spidey 3 trailer gave away too much of the game.
Posted by Balthazar
at April 20, 2007 9:49 AM
comment #17
christian
says ...
but i will say the incessant over-marketing of SP3 makes me NOT want to see it...
and why do the big marketing fucks think we need to see whole movie in the trailer? i've avoided all the trailers all clips all spoilers so i can enjoy the story without the cliff's notes...
Posted by christian
at April 20, 2007 9:56 AM
comment #18
Craig Kennedy
says ...
It turns out Christian that the marketing weasels think of us as complete drooling morons who need to be spoon fed before we'll snap out of our comas long enough to sit up and focus on anything for more than 30 seconds.
In most cases they're not too far off.
I'm with you on trailers though...I'd add reviews as well. My mind is made up, I don't need to be teased.
I guess I'm a robot, but is Jeff any less of a robot for having an automatic response in the opposite direction?
Posted by Craig Kennedy
at April 20, 2007 10:34 AM
comment #19
RoyBatty
says ...
Winchester - POTC II wasn't released mid-week (it also confirmed for some people the CW that the SPIDER-MAN record had stood for so long simply because every film that should have topped it like the STAR WARS sequels had been released mid-week, the long running time further proof). In the case of SPIDER 3, my point about the 145min run time was that on top of the mid-week opening it made it impossible to get past $135M.
*******
When it comes to trailers, I try to avoid them. There used to be an unwritten rule that you did not put your money shots or best lines in the trailer (and tried to avoid anything from the last act). But these days, the car salesmen running things think that unless you show your best stuff the public won't show.
I have a personal theory that one of the reasons THE MATRIX did so well was that very few people saw any trailers before the film opened. I somehow never saw one and got to have the film hit me full-on. I would argue have the film's impact came from people calling friends to say "You've got to see this fucking thing!"
Posted by RoyBatty
at April 20, 2007 10:53 AM
comment #20
jesse
says ...
RoyBatty, Spiderman 3 isn't coming out mid-week -- it's out on a Friday, like the first one.
Posted by jesse
at April 20, 2007 1:39 PM
comment #21
Rich S.
says ...
Crap! The Hollywood Reporter's review of Spidey 3 is just short of an out-and-out rave. I guess we'll have to hold off on shoveling dirt on Raimi's career for a week or two...
Posted by Rich S.
at April 20, 2007 2:07 PM
comment #22
christian
says ...
well, if you call that HR a rave...;]
Posted by christian
at April 20, 2007 2:25 PM
comment #23
ben151
says ...
Just back from Vacancy at the Orpheum at 86th and 3rd in NYC, normally an excellent theater for genre horror and comedy -- boisterous audiences that usually shut the f up once the movie's good and going -- and there were maybe 40 people in the audience for the 8:20 show. The place was empty. And it was a nice and nasty little piece of trash with some great jolts and a sucky ending. Easily the smallest audience for any mainstream horror that I've seen there in the three or four years I've been living in the neighborhood.
Posted by ben151
at April 20, 2007 9:31 PM