Weekend tracking

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I haven't gotten my usual Thursday numbers yet, but Fantasy Moguls' Steve Mason is projecting Superbad as the weekend's #1 film with a significantly higher figure than I'd previously estimated -- about $27.5 million. (I was thinking more like $21 or $22 million, maybe a bit more.) Rush Hour 3 will be second with about $22 milion and The Bourne Ultimatum will come in third with $19. 3 million. Mason foresees The Invasion earning $11 million or so. I see it doing more like $10 million.

Superbad is in solid with under-25 males, but it has an across-the board general awareness of only 54%. Think about that for twenty seconds. Think of all the great reviews, word-of-mouth, advance screenings and constant internet attention that Greg Mottola's film has acquired over the last two or three weeks. You'd really have to be unconscious in a cave with earplugs to have missed all the hype, and yet 46% of the people contacted by phone trackers are still going "huh?" -- they haven't even heard of it.

Where do they find these people? How can anyone be walking around this blocked? Do they have corks in their ears? Are they mentally challenged?

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Posted by Jeffrey Wells on August 16, 2007 at 8:04 AM

comment #1

starfunker says ...

dunno. but i have to honestly say that this movie's not making me all gooey with excitement, either. maybe it's because i'm not 12 years old. Let's face it, the people that will be dying to see this are the ones not allowed to without a parent around. That was true for me and Flashdance, Fast Times..., etc.

Posted by starfunker at August 16, 2007 9:11 AM

comment #2

Mcflyboy says ...

I don't understand what's so shocking about this tracking poorly. It doesn't have that gotcha gag in the ads like a kid fucking a pie. So what if it doesn't have a huge opening? Anything 20+ is fantastic. Word of mouth will be great, the drops will be small etc. If anything is hurting it, its the increasingly annoying Jonah Hill on the press tour. Why doesn't he just look to his right and take some pointers from Michael Cera to see how its done.

Posted by Mcflyboy at August 16, 2007 9:42 AM

comment #3

Mike Schaefer says ...

It's the title. It sounds like a blacksploitation parody, or at least something set in the '70s, and the '70s-style font used in the print ads/posters only reinforces that.

Don't get me wrong, I'm definitely seeing it this weekend, but to the average person, that title is like, "WTF?"

Posted by Mike Schaefer at August 16, 2007 9:48 AM

comment #4

Fred Mounts says ...

Well, not everyone uses the Internet (WHAT?!). And recording devices make it easy to skip TV commercials. I'm not sure where the shock is coming from.

However, I've been telling everyone I know to see it. I'll be paying tomorrow night to see it for a second time.

Posted by Fred Mounts at August 16, 2007 9:48 AM

comment #5

Josh Massey says ...

Nobody is rooting for Superbad more than I am, but anything north of $25 million seems like a huge stretch. I don't even see it beating Rush Hour 3, though I hope I'm wrong.

Posted by Josh Massey at August 16, 2007 9:55 AM

comment #6

Larry says ...

People who reside in places other than Los Angeles or New York--you know, America--have these things called lives. Stuff like jobs, spouses, kids, whatever. They know just as much as you, Jeff, just about different things.

And when it comes to diversion, it's not their job to keep tabs on what's opening this Friday. In fact, an August release with a weird name and no stars tracking at the numbers listed above is pretty damn good.

Posted by Larry at August 16, 2007 10:19 AM

comment #7

Zac Bertschy says ...

"And when it comes to diversion, it's not their job to keep tabs on what's opening this Friday."

Odd then that they manage to turn out in gigantic hordes for movies all summer. Clearly Superbad isn't tracking well because middle America has more important things to do, not because it's being marketed poorly.

11 million for The Invasion seems pretty awful; how much did that thing cost to make? Were people expecting it to do so poorly? I wonder if Joel Silver is sweating bullets.

Posted by Zac Bertschy at August 16, 2007 10:51 AM

comment #8

christian says ...

i'm 100% over-aware of SUPERBAD at this point.

and maybe, just maybe, not everybody in the universe wants to revel in another teen sex comedy, CITIZEN KANE of teen-sex comedies though it may be. it will still make plenty of cash.

Posted by christian at August 16, 2007 11:41 AM

comment #9

D.Z. says ...

There might be interest in another teen sex comedy, but no one appears to do anything noteworthy in this one. It seems more like they're emphasizing the comedy over the sex. Still, if it does better than Girl Next Door, then that's all that matters.

Posted by D.Z. at August 16, 2007 12:18 PM

comment #10

The Movie Man says ...

I like Judd Apatow and Seth Rogen, and SUPERBAD looks like it will be fun, but the reviews look to be another case of critics falling over themselves to prove they "get it" just because a movie in a largely disreputable genre happens to be pretty good. Remmeber the AMERICAN PIE reviews? I wonder how many of those critics would cop to that now?

Posted by The Movie Man at August 16, 2007 1:56 PM

comment #11

christian says ...

that's my feeling too, mm. critics worried about not keeping up with the facebook gen have to prostrate themselves before the new audience of proto-internet-porn geeks. "i'm hip, kids."

Posted by christian at August 16, 2007 2:23 PM

comment #12

BurmaShave says ...

If this movie is as hysterical as FLASHDANCE, I'll be very happy.

Posted by BurmaShave at August 16, 2007 3:00 PM

comment #13

Rothchild says ...

People will still be watching this movie in 10 or 20 years. It will be on that very short list of great movies about that specific time in your life. Dazed and Confused. Fast Times. Etc.

Posted by Rothchild at August 16, 2007 3:42 PM

comment #14