Box-ofice projection

Steve Carell's Dan in Real Life, a surprisingly passable adult family comedy (although not quite on the level of '80s and '90s James L. Brooks), is expected to earn between $10 and $12 this weekend. The big winner, however, will be Saw 4 with over $20 million. If this isn't cause for rejoicing in the streets (the resurgence of torture porn!), I don't know what would be.

And Fantasy Moguls' Steve Mason is reporting that next week (11.2 to 11.4) is shaping up to be a record-breaker with Jerry Seinfeld's Bee Movie (Dreamamount) apparently headed for $38 million to $44 million and Ridley Scott, Steve Z., Denzel Washington and Russell Crowe's American Gangster (Universal) looking "almost certain to open at $40 million plus."

Posted by Jeffrey Wells on October 26, 2007 at 12:46 PM

comment #1

BurmaShave Author Profile Page says ...

So is this going to be another HAPPY FEET over CASINO ROYALE situation? And will I be as angry? Probably.

Posted by BurmaShave Author Profile Page at October 26, 2007 1:30 PM

comment #2

Geoff Author Profile Page says ...

Let my love open the door, let my love open the door, let me blow my brains out.

Posted by Geoff Author Profile Page at October 26, 2007 1:42 PM

comment #3

NickF Author Profile Page says ...

Bee Movie is tracking big? I wonder if this will be another case of tracking been way off. The ads for it look terrible. And clips of Oprah's faux laughter at every joke Jerry reciting compound this.

Posted by NickF Author Profile Page at October 26, 2007 1:43 PM

comment #4

BNick Author Profile Page says ...

Yeah, I'm surprised that Bee Movie is tracking that high as well. I thought the lack of early screeners for a movie like this was a giant red flag. Everyone I know wants to see American Gangster, though. It's going to be huge.

And Burma, I'd gladly take another Happy Feet if you promised me another Casino Royale.

Posted by BNick Author Profile Page at October 26, 2007 1:54 PM

comment #5

PastePotPete Author Profile Page says ...

When was the last big kids movie out? August? That's why it will open big. Lack of competition.

Also the advertising isn't aimed at us primarily.

Posted by PastePotPete Author Profile Page at October 26, 2007 2:01 PM

comment #6

bmcintire Author Profile Page says ...

I am feeling absolutely no interest in BEE MOVIE. I am usually a sucker for the ones that look like they could be entertaining (most of the Pixars, HAPPY FEET) but this looks like strictly MADAGASCAR-level dreck. Which is not to say it won't open huge.
And could they have come up with a worse tagline than "Honey Just Got Funny"? Just because it rhymes makes it neither cute nor clever. Ugh.

Posted by bmcintire Author Profile Page at October 26, 2007 2:14 PM

comment #7

WinslowLeachtheComposer Author Profile Page says ...

Bee Movie looks so played out, even my nine-year-old says she'd rather see American Gangster.

Posted by WinslowLeachtheComposer Author Profile Page at October 26, 2007 2:19 PM

comment #8

RoyBatty Author Profile Page says ...

Only around $20M for SAW IV?

I think it will do more like $30M - $40M. It's the weekend before Halloween, there hasn't been a "Let's all meet up at movies" picture in over a month, 30 DAYS/NIGHTS has neutral word-of-mouth and it's branded franchise at this point.

By the way gang, Universal put six of their summer/fall releases' scripts up to peruse (AMERICAN GANGSTER, KNOCKED UP, ELIZ - GOLDEN AGE, BREACH, BOURNE ULTIMATUM & THE KINGDOM). You will need a pdf reader plugin for your browser.

http://www.universalpicturesawards.com/screenplays07/

Posted by RoyBatty Author Profile Page at October 26, 2007 2:52 PM

comment #9

count.olaf Author Profile Page says ...

don't miss out on the there will be blood script either:
http://www.filmick.co.uk/2007/10/five-paramount-vantage-scripts-straight.html

Posted by count.olaf Author Profile Page at October 26, 2007 3:09 PM

comment #10

jeffmcm Author Profile Page says ...

This seems like a good place to say that, whereas earlier this year I was defending Eli Roth and Hostel 2, now I would like to state that the Saw sequels are cinematic garbage and Darren Bousman is a terrible director.

Posted by jeffmcm Author Profile Page at October 26, 2007 3:31 PM

comment #11

insidah Author Profile Page says ...

The Saw movies are badly executed good ideas. Yet each year, we get another one. Imagine a Saw movie in the hands of a Lynch or Tarantino. Even Eli Roth is far more sneakily intelligent than the Saw idiots.

Posted by insidah Author Profile Page at October 26, 2007 3:40 PM

comment #12

George Prager Author Profile Page says ...

The Police Academy movies are badly executed good ideas. Yet each year, we get another one. Imagine a Police Academy movie in the hands of a Lynch or Tarantino. Even Paul Verhoeven is far more sneakily intelligent than the Police Academy idiots.

Posted by insidah at October 26, 1994 03:40 PM

Posted by George Prager Author Profile Page at October 26, 2007 3:46 PM

comment #13

BurmaShave Author Profile Page says ...

SAW in the hands of Tarantino is called HOSTEL. It's still a piece of crap.

Posted by BurmaShave Author Profile Page at October 26, 2007 3:54 PM

comment #14

BurmaShave Author Profile Page says ...

Also, I would love to see Paul Verhoeven's POLICE ACADEMY. "It's ROBOCOP meets the first half of STARSHIP TROOPERS!"

Posted by BurmaShave Author Profile Page at October 26, 2007 3:56 PM

comment #15

lipranzer Author Profile Page says ...

DAN IN REAL LIFE may be pleasant, but that's all it is. If it wasn't for Steve Carrell, it would float away.

Posted by lipranzer Author Profile Page at October 26, 2007 4:20 PM

comment #16

Wrecktum Author Profile Page says ...

Saw 4 will be a lot higher than $20m. Where did Wells pull that number from?

Posted by Wrecktum Author Profile Page at October 26, 2007 4:33 PM

comment #17

D.Z. Author Profile Page says ...

insidah: "Imagine a Saw movie in the hands of a Lynch or Tarantino."

It's called Wild at Heart and Death Proof, and they both suck...

Posted by D.Z. Author Profile Page at October 26, 2007 5:07 PM

comment #18

christian Author Profile Page says ...

And if BEE MOVIE doesn't open big, can we stop this tracking fantasy?

Posted by christian Author Profile Page at October 26, 2007 5:18 PM

comment #19

Luke Y. Thompson Author Profile Page says ...

I'm a fan of the first three SAW movies, but the new one is a pale retread -- without Tobin Bell (except in flashbacks) and Shawnee Smith, there's no point.

It's the "Friday the 13th part V: A New Beginning" of the series.

Posted by Luke Y. Thompson Author Profile Page at October 26, 2007 5:21 PM

comment #20

BurmaShave Author Profile Page says ...

D.Z., you're crazy to hate Tarantino this much, but I'm going to have to take serious issue with you going after WILD AT HEART. That's a mesmerizing film. Palme D'Or winner man. You'd better step correct.

Posted by BurmaShave Author Profile Page at October 26, 2007 6:44 PM

comment #21

Movie Watcher Author Profile Page says ...

There is no way Bee Movie will beat American Gangster. I am looking forward to AG, as are a lot of people. Washington/Crowe is a good cast; the 70's feel of the movie, and I predict close to $50 million. Bee Movie will do $35 million. I'm tired of Seinfeld, I don't even watch his show that much anymore. He should stick to the stand up and leave it at that.

Posted by Movie Watcher Author Profile Page at October 27, 2007 3:37 AM

comment #22

Spicer Author Profile Page says ...

I have no interest in Bee Movie at all. However I would love to see an animated movie from Larry David.

Posted by Spicer Author Profile Page at October 29, 2007 1:16 PM

comment #23

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