comment #1

MiraJeffAICN says ...

That is the worst collection of Gurus I've ever seen. I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news but anyone who thinks No Country has a shot at BP is smoking crack.

comment #2

MiraJeffAICN says ...

I mean, it's nice to see Poland get away from the big-name critics but did he actively seek those guys out or are did they just email him and ask to be included. Jeff, why don't you start your own Gurus chart with all the regular talkbackers here? It'd be just as relevant and probably smarter than the folks Poland looks to.

comment #3

Brian says ...

Jeff, that's a good idea. I'm looking forward to seeing that.

Also look forward to some veiled Poland reference down the line about how people who profess not to care about the Academy don't know how the world works, or something like that.

comment #4

Ian Sinclair says ...

Let's not do that. At least there are some Oscar voters out there who might pay attention to Jeff; the opinion of amateur fanboys like MiraJeffAICN or the rest of the Bonzo Bog-brained Blogger Brigade would be utterly (and rightly) ignored by voters.

comment #5

bmcintire says ...

"[Oscar] Nominees decided upon with no regard whatsoever for what the Academy might decide down the road."
The point being. . ? So you are picking your five favorites in various categories? Bravo! These people are handicapping what they think the Academy will do. I'm sure their individual lists of favorites will differ from their Oscar picks as well.
Was CRASH actually your favorite film from 2005? Was it even in your top five? Did you, however, "call" it as a nominee or eventual winner? Therein lies the difference.

comment #6

T. Holly says ...

If there was a god? ITWAG. Waiting for Itwag. Sounds like a top 10 list to me. "Once" better be on it.

comment #7

EDouglas says ...

As usual, Poland goes for quantity over quality... Gold Derby's the place to be, baby!

comment #8

Zimmergirl says ...

Right, cause you guys did SO WELL last year. This isn't brain surgery - anyone who thinks they are so-called experts are fooling themselves.

"That is the worst collection of Gurus I've ever seen. I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news but anyone who thinks No Country has a shot at BP is smoking crack."

MiraJeff, you are out of your element. Why don't you lay down your top five in the big six categories and predict how you think it's going to go. Thrill me with your acumen.

best picture
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

best actor
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

best actress
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

best director
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

supporting actor
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

supporting actress
1.
2.
3.
4.
5

comment #9

EDouglas says ...

The Coen Brothers have a strong track record with the Academy and this is very much a return to form... why wouldn't the male-dominated Academy take notice?

comment #10

Ian Sinclair says ...

Zimmergirl, I'll bite, as he and the rest will only play safe. Here are mine:

best picture
1. BEOWULF
2. ATONEMENT
3. LOVE IN THE TIME OF CHOLERA
4. ENCHANTED
5. 3:10 TO YUMA

best actor
1. DANIEL DAY-LEWIS, There Will Be Blood
2. JAVIER BARDEM, Love in the Time of Cholera
3. RUSSELL CROWE, 3:10 to Yuma
4. JAMES McAVOY, Atonement
5. JACK NICHOLSON, The Bucket List

best actress
1. AMY ADAMS, Enchanted
2. CATE BLANCHETT, The Golden Age
3. MARION COTILLARD, Piaf
4. DAKOTA BLUE RICHARDS, The Golden Compass
5. KEIRA KNIGHTLY, Atonement

best director
1. ROBERT ZEMECKIS, Beowulf
2. PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON, There Will Be Blood
3. MIKE NEWELL, Love in the Time of Cholera
4. JAMES MANGOLD, 3:10 TO YUMA
5. JOE WRIGHT, Atonement

supporting actor
1. Javier Bardem, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
2. Sam Elliott, THE GOLDEN COMPASS
3. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, CHARLIE WILSON'S WAR
4. Ben Foster, 3:10 TO YUMA
5. Tommy Lee Jones, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN

supporting actress
1. VANESSA REDGRAVE, Atonement
2. SUSAN SARANDON, Enchanted
3. SAMANTHA MORTON, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
4. ROMOLA GARAI, Atonement
5. CATE BLANCHETT, I'm Not There

comment #11

MiraJeffAICN says ...

Zimmergirl, I never claimed to be an expert or a Guru, but I know what I'm talking about as much as anyone on that chart does. I don't have the time or inclination to fill your form out right now but based on the films I've seen, No Country stands ZERO chance of being nominated for BP. Bardem should be considered a lock. Anything else would have to be considered gravy. Maybe the Coens get a nod (though I doubt it, especially in a deep year like this) because it is a return to form, and maybe Deakins' cinematography, although his work in Jesse James is what will earn him acclaim at this year's ceremony. I'd say adapted screenplay is a long shot because nearly every 'prestige' film is adapted this year. But that's just No Country's prospects. I think BP comes down to Atonement vs. There Will Be Blood, but then again, I haven't seen either of those films so there's no way I can definitively say that either one of them will be nominated. But the buzz is growing deafening for those two. Gimme another month to catch up with films like Diving Bell and Mighty Heart and Gangster and then I'll be able to throw in my two cents, but I'll leave you with this one bold prediction. The Gurus seem to be following their brains on the chart but a real movie lover (as most Academy members are) follows their heart, and Elah is the film that has struck the deepest chord with me. Into the Wild, Reservation Road and Gone Baby Gone also made my eyes misty. My tears should be considered like Punxatawney Phil. They're indicative of something, even if I'm not quite sure what that something is. Maybe it's the fact that I'm a giant pussy, or maybe the fact that there is something special and magical screening before my eyes. Either way, I know Oscar when I see it, and No Country was no Best Picture nominee, let alone a winner. A pulse-pounding, adrenaline-fueled thriller that doubles as a meditation on fate sure, but the Coens best film, absolutely not, even if Bardem creates a legendary character with one of the most iconic depictions of evil I've ever seen onscreen.

comment #12

MiraJeffAICN says ...

Jesus, Ian. Talk about not playing it safe. You should be considered a danger to yourself. I mean, even when we spar back and forth, I find you mildly intelligent and interesting, but that has to be the single most retard list of ANYTHING that I've read in quite sometime. The day Beowulf gets nominated for Best Picture, I will cut my own dick off, gift wrap it, and send it to you as a Hanukkah present. Yuma and Ben Foster... you're joking, right? I'm concerned for your mental health, dude. I think I should call social services right now.

comment #13

Ian Sinclair says ...

Mira, please send your penis to jeffmcm, as his must be quite worn out by now.

comment #14

Ben C says ...

Ian -

There's playing it safe, and then there's being a provocateur. At this point in the game, one doesn't make much a difference from the other.

But let's still be real here. Beowulf and Yuma have no chance in the BP race, and we all know that. It's history and economics as much as anything else. They haven't a chance the same way Zodiac doesn't. They may well be high quality films (and in the case of the latter, still rich with proponents) but that don't mean nothin'.

You can love 3:10 To Yuma more than anything else released this year, and not be alone in that camp, but seriously, who are you trying to fool here?

comment #15

Ian Sinclair says ...

Fool? The average Academy member is an over 50 white male and YUMA is a Western. YUMA has wonderful reviews, great word of mouth and is still in the top 5 at the box office. It's DVD will be out in December/January, perfect for nominations.

Beowulf is the first 3D picture not made for children. It will be seen by Academy members in IMAX theaters and will be the greatest cinenematic experience of the year. It is based on the oldest and most respected tales in the English language. It has an A list cast and comes from an A list director. I think it will be a cultural phenomenon and be a critical and commercial smash.

comment #16

James Rocchi says ...

A few notes:

1) I was asked to participate; it seemed like a fun thing to do.


2) The process does not, however, ask for our picks and thoughts about the films we would like to see nominated; it asks what we think will be nominated. There is, it should be noted, a huge gulf between those two ideas; I don't think In the Valley of Elah is much of anything aside from a demonstration of why Paul Haggis is a clumsy, fumbling writer, but it's fricking catnip to the older, limousine-liberal membership of the Academy, who can walk out of it misty-eyed (or, rather, turn off their screening copy misty-eyed ... Elah will play even better on DVD than it does on-screen) and feel somehow ennobled by their witness to Tommy Lee's suffering. The same goes for Into the Wild, which I found stumblingly self-important, but which Baby-Boom era Academy voters will love. (The web ads for Into the Wild, note "If you want something, reach out and grab it." They somehow leave off the clause about "... and then die alone in the back of a freezing cold bus.")


3) I can't speak for my peers, but I know that I'm not including anything I haven't seen in my probable nominees. So, while I was fortunate enough to cover Toronto for Cinematical, I didn't see Atonement, for but one example. I'm sure that as Academy/Awards consideration screenings take place in San Francisco -- the pancreas of the entertainment industry -- my picks and predictions of the Academy's tastes will evolve.


4) The Gurus list -- like all Oscar lists and prognostications -- are only useful as mild diversion and conversation fodder; they have no purpose, to me, aside from that. And if you can't be civil in those conversations -- offering your genitalia as holiday gifts, for example -- then that says more about the nature of your character than the nature of the process.


5) It should be noted, finally, that my thoughts about the process above in no way reflect those of Mr. Poland or my fellow 2.0 gurus.


-- James.

comment #17

Ray says ...

Ian -

The story of BEOWULF may be old and respected, but it is also BORING. It will be even more boring when "fleshed out" by dead-eyed mannequins that resemble living stars.

To be a cultural milestone, it needs to reach and move teenagers. And BEOWULF just ain't going to do that.

www.therecshow.com

comment #18

Ben C says ...

"The average Academy member is an over 50 white male and YUMA is a Western. YUMA has wonderful reviews, great word of mouth and is still in the top 5 at the box office. It's DVD will be out in December/January, perfect for nominations."

All that is true, but it's still a B -Movie. 2nd tier. All of the accolades, word of mouth, and even ads recognize it as such. The cast, undeniably of a high pedigree, see it like that. Neither it's box office nor reviews, both, for lack of a better word, respectable, are anywhere close to what needed to push Yuma any higher.

And in 15 years, what was the last straight ahead Western actioner to get a BP nom? What was the last straight western in general?

"Beowulf is the first 3D picture not made for children. It will be seen by Academy members in IMAX theaters and will be the greatest cinenematic experience of the year. It is based on the oldest and most respected tales in the English language. It has an A list cast and comes from an A list director. I think it will be a cultural phenomenon and be a critical and commercial smash."

Yeah. And it'll rack up the technical nods. Maybe (*MAYBE*) an adapted screenplay one too. But rien d'autre. Let's be serious here.

And the reviews, says who? Who the fuck has seen it yet?

comment #19

Ben C says ...

The Fountain was also a cinematic trip. Where did that get it?

comment #20

jeffmcm says ...

Nobody in the Academy cares what was the oldest epic poem in the English language.

Ian, I've asked you before and I'll ask you again: leave me out of your sexual fantasies. You're becoming a stalker.

comment #21

BurmaShave says ...

"I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news but anyone who thinks No Country has a shot at BP is smoking crack.

Posted by: MiraJeffAICN at October 3, 2007 04:03 PM"

Dear MiraJeff. Cease and Desist! At once.

Signed,
The Universe

P.S. stop aping Wells' writing style, or at least what you think is his writing style.

comment #22

christian says ...

Ian, you left out Hal Holbrook for Best Supporting Actor in INTO THE WILD. He will be nominated and could stand to win if the Academy was feeling generous and sentimental. Plus he deserves it for this film. That's my only Oscar prediction. Onward.

comment #23

Ian Sinclair says ...

Ray, I have read the screenplay to BEOWULF and boring it most certainly is not.

Why wouldn't Beowulf not "reach out and move" teenagers? Sorry, but "it just ain't gonna do it" is hardly a valid argument.

Ben C, there hasn't been an "A" Western in 15 years as good as YUMA.

The Fountain was an arthouse picture that wasn't in IMAX and 3D.

Jeffmcm, stick to masturbating to your torture porn; it's the only thing you seem to know anything about. Don't forget to wash your hands before you post.

As your arguments have not been made for dismissing YUMA and BEOWULF, why not look at two other pictures I am predicting for honours - LOVE IN THE TIME OF CHOLERA and THE GOLDEN COMPASS? Like ATONEMENT they are based on superb novels with serious literary cachet.

comment #24

truefaith says ...

I don't understand what is go great about IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH. As far as I'm concerned Tommy Lee Jones played his usual self, and the story was predictable. It didn't have anything new to say about the Iraq war just as CRASH didn't have anything new to say about racial tension in L.A. I wish critics would realize that Paul Haggic is overrated as both a screenwriter and director.

comment #25

Ben C says ...

The Human Stain is a superb novel with literary cachet.

It didn't make the movie any better.

comment #26

Ben C says ...

"there hasn't been an "A" Western in 15 years as good as YUMA."

But that's a matter of opinion. Your opinion.

Yuma, though possessing an undeniable quality, is not an A level film. It's a total B movie, a well shot, cast and acted B movie, but one nevertheless.

It's on the same level as The Bourne Ultimatum, which, it should be noted, grossed a hell'va lot more, and garnered considerably more acclaim, on the award path. It's a nonentity.

comment #27

MiraJeffAICN says ...

James, thanks for your illuminating post. Appreciate it. Nice to see a Guru come in here and defend their choices. That's what I wish the chart included. Explanations, however brief. Because to leave it up to numbers is to imply that the #3 film is more likely to be nominated than the #4 film, when you might think both have an equal chance. Poland's using an archaic system.

comment #28

lazarus says ...

Ian, you talk about jeffmcm's hand, penis, and arm so much I'm surprised they didn't figure into your Best Supporting Actor nominees.

And as I said on The Hot Blog, you're fucking delusional if you think The Golden Compass or Sam Elliott are getting into those big categories, literary pedigree or no.

And Love in the Time of Cholera?! That thing will be lucky if it gets shown across the entire counry, let alone make it to the Academy Awards. You're obviously confusing what you consider good reading with the taste of the American public, and more specifically, APMAS.

comment #29

filmfan says ...

Lazarus, how can you say that about Love in the Time of Cholera? I've heard only positive things about it. It has every bit of a chance as Atonement to get awards. Am I certain? Of course not. But it is a beautiful novel and I have heard from a few people that it is a beautiful film. So give it a chance.