comment #1

BNick says ...

Here goes (some of these I haven't actually seen):

Best Picture:
Once
Ratatouille
Assassination of Jesse James...
There Will Be Blood
Atonement

Best Actor:
Daniel Day Lewis, TWBB
Sam Riley, Control
Chris Cooper, Breach
Seth Rogen, Knocked Up
Christian Bale, Rescue Dawn

Best Actress:
Keira Knightley, Atonement
Katherine Heigl, Knocked Up
Amy Adams, Enchanted
Ellen Page, Juno
Sienna Miller, Interview

Best Supporting Actor:
Casey Affleck, Jesse James
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Peter O'Toole, Ratatouille
Steve Zahn, Rescue Dawn
Paul Dano, TWBB

Best Supporting Actress:
Michelle Monaghan, Gone Baby Gone
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Zoe Bell, Death Proof
Samantha Morton, Elizabeth: TGA
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement

comment #2

arch451 says ...

some ideas for other catagories:

Best Director:
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Best Cinematography:
The Assassination of Jesse James...

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Best Film Editing:
The Bourne Ultimatum

Best Song:
"Falling Slowly" Glen Hansard & Marketa Irglova, Once

Best Special Effects:
300

Best Animated Film: The Simpsons Movie

comment #3

SomeCallMe...Tim says ...

It'll never happen, but Christina Ricci needs to be recognized for Black Snake Moan. At the very least, its the gutsiest performance of the year.

comment #4

James Leer says ...

"Best Supporting Actress:
Michelle Monaghan, Gone Baby Gone"

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I'm assuming that's one of the movie you've not yet seen.

Although, can I put in a for-real vote for Leslie Mann ("Knocked Up")?

comment #5

BNick says ...

Yeah, you're right James Leer. Busted!

I struggled with that category, just finding names to fill in based on the movies I'd seen. I just like her and I wasn't sure if it was a Marsha Gay Harden in Mystic River type role.

I think Leslie Mann is an awesome choice, though.

And for the record. I don't think all the Knocked Up people have a chance in hell, although perhaps for Golden Globe nods.

comment #6

Rothchild says ...

Anyone that mentions BEOWULF is out of their mind and knows nothing.

comment #7

alynch says ...

If any actress gets nominated for Gone Baby Gone, it's going to be Amy Ryan. She has the Marcia Gay Harden type role (i.e. emotional wreck).

comment #8

Crow T Robot says ...

This year will be remembered for 300. Love it or hate it, it is the most original, most iconic blockbuster in years. Maybe since the first Matrix.

And again, I'd like to see nacho chewing Kurt Russell in Death Proof get some love from critic groups.

comment #9

Armin Tamzarian says ...

Here are two performances that are awards-worthy, but will not receive nominations:

Stephen Graham - THIS IS ENGLAND
Kene Holliday - GREAT WORLD OF SOUND

comment #10

Ian Sinclair says ...

Rothchild made a fool of himself with:

"Anyone that mentions BEOWULF is out of their mind and knows nothing."

Then by that logic you are someone who is out of their mind and knows nothing.

comment #11

NDH says ...

Best Picture:
American Gangster
Atonement
Charlie Wilson's War
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Best Actor:
John Cusack, Grace Is Gone
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
James McAvoy, Atonement
Denzel Washington, American Gangster

Best Actress:
Amy Adams, Enchanted
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno

Best Supporting Actor:
Casey Affleck, Jesse James
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Russell Crowe, American Gangster
Ed Harris, Gone Baby Gone
Ethan Hawke, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead

Best Supporting Actress:
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Susan Sarandon, In the Valley of Elah
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

comment #12

christian says ...

uh has anybody SEEN the movies they're breathlessly predicting will win awards?

you might hope that BEOUWOLF gets a shitload of noms, but based on the video-game trailers, what warrants this speculation beyond fevered geek hope? some of you sound like frickin' criswell..

comment #13

christian says ...

and the fact that nobody is talking hal holbrook -- who will be nominated -- shows something lacking in the prediction dept.

comment #14

arch451 says ...

you are talking hal holbrook, you pretentious christian

comment #15

Rothchild says ...

Ian, when did you become D.Z. Part Deux? I remember a time when you came across as a passionate and interesting guy. Now you're slowly becoming a prick.

comment #16

christian says ...

"you are talking hal holbrook, you pretentious christian"

it's tough being a visionary.

comment #17

BNick says ...

You don't have to have seen the movies, that would be impossible for most of us. You can base your predictions off the great buzz for Atonement and There Will Be Blood. It's almost better not to have seen them, you don't let personal sentiment get in the way.

comment #18

Ian Sinclair says ...

Rothchild calling someone a prick for making their Oscar predictions makes you the prick. Try and behave like an adult.

I am basing my predictions on what I feel, based on logic and instinct, the Academy will go for. If you disagree, fine and dandy: make your own.

comment #19

christian says ...

"It's almost better not to have seen them, you don't let personal sentiment get in the way."

as opposed to non-personal objectivity about an unseen film based on...what then? i no understand.

comment #20

Rothchild says ...

Dude, it's Beowulf. It's a two hour video game cut scene with great actors and decent dialog. 300 has a better chance and that will never get nominated.

comment #21

Ian Sinclair says ...

Rothchild, I have read the screenplay. BEOWULF's structure is a classic three-act, with a new plot twist that brings together all aspects of the poem. It has action, sure, but it has full-on drama, too, and tragedy; it is also very moving. Comparing it to the simplistic 300 is risible.

comment #22

Rothchild says ...

Okay, I'm 100% sure it will never be nominated, but I'm glad your opinion is based on how you felt about the screenplay. I'll take back my asshole comments if you'll give There Will Be Blood a shot without bringing your baggage into the theater. Deal?

comment #23

BNick says ...

christian, if you're trying to predict what the Academy will go for, doesn't it make sense to base those predictions off of reviews of films and buzz, rather than like "I think Once was the best film of the year so it will be nominated!"?

Near unanimous glowing reviews for a few of these films, you have to be stupid not to take that into consideration even if you haven't seen the films.

And yes, with less personally invested in a movie you can be more objective about it. See Jeff's Munich experience and Poland's experience with Dreamgirls last year.

comment #24

Ian Sinclair says ...

I suppose you must have missed where I included Anderson and Day-Lewis in my predictions. I did not include it in my Best Picture predictions due to the fact that I think at the end of the day it's an arthouse movie with little commercial appeal, and I replaced it with ENCHANTED which I have seen and think will be so big it will be rewarded with a nod.

comment #25

le corbeau says ...

I'm more interested in predicting this year's Jarheads and Life of David Gales and All the King's Mens.

Charlie Wilson's War has the air of slick, all-star nothingburger about it. I have lost all faith in Tim Burton's ability to make a movie move, and anyway, if there's a more overrated figure in the late 20th century than Stephen Sondheim, I don't know who it would be. Despite Lust, Caution's good reviews, I've never seen an Ang Lee movie that wouldn't be improved by being sped up 20%.

What else?

comment #26

Pinko Punko says ...

Hey, the thread is about who you think should get nominated, not will- remember this is the actual anti-thread. Where people talk about the movies and the actual performance, not who they think a bunch of total Academy choads will pick.

comment #27

berg says ...

Hal Holbrook is an easy call, but what about a Best Actor nom for Ryan Gosling in LARS and the Real Girl ... why not?

comment #28

rocco says ...

Shouldn't it read "If there is a God" ??

comment #29

BurmaShave says ...

If There Were A God

comment #30

Pinko Punko says ...

BurmaShave with the subjunctive, contrary to fact on big G!

comment #31

kingspiffo says ...

I don't really care much who makes it this year, as long as Chris Cooper gets nominated for "Breach".

comment #32

Meegosh says ...

Haven't seen it yet but I've read the book and Ed Harris' rols seems like it would be perfect as best supporting actor. Don't want to give away the plot but his role is the closest to Sean Penn's, so if he does it well I don't see how he wouldn't get nominated.

comment #33

erniesouchak says ...

Cinematography: Seamus McGarvey for "Atonement"

comment #34

le corbeau says ...

"Haven't seen it yet but I've read the book and Ed Harris' rols seems like it would be perfect as best supporting actor. Don't want to give away the plot but his role is the closest to Sean Penn's, so if he does it well I don't see how he wouldn't get nominated."

Care to give us a clue what movie you're talking about?

comment #35

nemo says ...

"If There Were A God"

"BurmaShave with the subjunctive, contrary to fact on big G!"

A man visiting Boston wants to get some seafood. He gets into a cab and asks:

"Where can I get scrod?"

Cabdriver replies: "I've been asked that question many times, but never in the pluperfect subjunctive."

comment #36

Meegosh says ...

Sorry, I was talking about Gone Baby Gone.

comment #37

Meegosh says ...

Sorry, I was talking about Gone Baby Gone. And the reference to Sean Penn was for Mystic River. Same author.

comment #38

George Prager says ...

I thought you were talking about NATIONAL TREASURE: BOOK OF SECRETS.

The Oscars are useful for one reason and one reason only: they will force my parents to see a movie I've been talking up for months, movies that they can't be bothered with while they keep plunking down their 9 bucks for crap like WE ARE MARSHALL.

comment #39

Zimmergirl says ...

"Hey, the thread is about who you think should get nominated, not will- remember this is the actual anti-thread. Where people talk about the movies and the actual performance, not who they think a bunch of total Academy choads will pick."

Exactly. This exercise is like mutual masturbation. It is utterly and completely pointless when your "if there were a god" picks are almost the same as your Oscar balloon. I mean Jesus. Every year I come to this site and the so-called Oscar balloon HAS ALWAYS BEEN Jeff Wells' preferred picks rather than honest-to-goodness predictions. So this whole thing is a joke. Sorry. Nice try. Wells' first pick for the God ones is American Gangster?! Someone tell me how a divine force is the only thing that's going to get this nominated? Hello! It has BIG OSCAR MOVIE written all over it, is backed by a major studio and has two Oscar winners starring in it!!!

If this had any legitimacy it would be something like:

Best Pic:
Rataouille
Once
La Vie En Rose
Redacted

I mean CHRIST why not make God actually lift a Finger??!!

All of this complaining about the gurus and it winds up right back at the beginning - the exact same picks people were picking to begin with!

comment #40

BNick says ...

I agree that the thread is supposed to be around who you WANT to win, but to be honest in some of these categories (like Best Supporting Actress) I haven't seen enough movies that actually had memorable performances. So I filled them in with people I like as actors or people who look like they might win.

comment #41

MASON says ...

Amy Ryan has a chance for a supporting actress nomination for her performance in Gone Baby Gone. She's the one great thing in a pretty mediocre movie.