Hillary weakened?

Hillary Clinton's performance in the 10.30 debate made her seem vulnerable for the first time. And now Robert Novak is reporting that "an 11.6 Zogby poll of 502 likely Iowa caucus-goers showed Clinton's lead had shrunk to three points -- within the survey's 4.5% margin of error. The narrowing, however, is mostly due to an Obama surge, from 19 percent in Zogby's August poll to 25 percent."

A N.Y. Times assessment, based on a Times/CBS News poll, finds the Democratic contest "essentially tied in Iowa" between Clinton, Obama and Edwards. The mind-blower is that a strong majority of respondents said that Obama and Edwards are more likely than Clinton to say what they believe, rather than what they think voters want to hear. And yet Clinton, respondents feel, is "the best prepared and most electable Democrat in the field."

Silly me thinking all this time that likability -- how high a candidate ranks according to Dating Game criteria -- was a deciding factor among most voters.

The dream scenario is that Clinton comes in second to Obama in Iowa, and Obama takes this momentum with him to New Hampshire and South Carolina. Of course, the only way to really take her down is for Edwards to bail so everyone can rally around one Hillary-alternative candidate instead of two.

Posted by Jeffrey Wells on November 14, 2007 at 3:38 PM

comment #1

Jay T. Author Profile Page says ...

Jeff, do you know anything about politics? This contradiction makes perfect sense.

Posted by Jay T. Author Profile Page at November 14, 2007 4:04 PM

comment #2

Caustic712 Author Profile Page says ...

Or... Edwards agrees to be Obama's VP, thus uniting the alternative ticket. Not likely (at least until after the primary), but possible.

Posted by Caustic712 Author Profile Page at November 14, 2007 4:18 PM

comment #3

Brigadier Pudding Author Profile Page says ...

Of course, the only way to really take her down is for Edwards to bail so everyone can rally around one Hillary-alternative candidate instead of two.

Edwards is more progressive than Obama. He's also not afraid to attack Hillary and he doesn't pander to religious nuts and homophobes like Obama does. Obama should bail.

Posted by Brigadier Pudding Author Profile Page at November 14, 2007 4:51 PM

comment #4

D.Z. Author Profile Page says ...

Brigadier: "He's also not afraid to attack Hillary"

Though he conveniently attacked her after he voted for the war, too.

"and he doesn't pander to religious nuts and homophobes like Obama does."

Yes, he just ignored the gay marriage issue completely during the '04 election. I'm not fond of Obama avoiding the haters, but as long as he doesn't openly take the Bush POV on the subject of gay marriage, he's still reliable in my book.

Posted by D.Z. Author Profile Page at November 14, 2007 5:09 PM

comment #5

rocco Author Profile Page says ...

Ron Paul seems like just your kind of guy...why no love? For someone who is so outspokenly against big corporations and, by extension, corporation-controlled media, why do you limit yourself to their cadre of politicians??

Now, I'm not part of the Ron Paul mafia, but the guy has a major grass-roots thing going on (hello 60's spirit), is extremely articulate and intelligent, and isn't afraid to state very frank opinions or declare courses of action...this at least makes him an extremely intriguing wrinkle in the inevitable Rudy-Hillary showdown.

Your feelings about people belie whatever principles you may feel align you with democrats...while I'm not personally advocating Ron Paul, I am saying do not disregard the man simply because has an (R) next to his name.

Posted by rocco Author Profile Page at November 14, 2007 5:13 PM

comment #6

D.Z. Author Profile Page says ...

del: I'm not fond of Ron's xenophobia.

Posted by D.Z. Author Profile Page at November 14, 2007 5:15 PM

comment #7

lazarus Author Profile Page says ...

I don't disregard any politician with an (R) next to his name, I'm just suspect of their true intentions and consideration for the rights of others.

Posted by lazarus Author Profile Page at November 14, 2007 5:25 PM

comment #8

rocco Author Profile Page says ...

RP has some extreme positions that will make most people uncomfortable. Some might call them radical, but from what I've read and heard, most are backed by sound reason or even precedent.

I'm a registered Republican, just voted for a Democrat mayor here in Philly, and am completely undecided when it comes to Nov. '08. What intrigues me about Paul is that he seems to be the only one prepared to talk about SWEEPING, difficult changes in the way our government works. He'll surely be blocked by the old guard from ever receiving the national attention he needs to mount a serious campaign, but I hope his growing groundswell of support spurs some of the other candidates to begin to take seriously some of the changes he is proposing.

Posted by rocco Author Profile Page at November 14, 2007 5:30 PM

comment #9

truefaith Author Profile Page says ...

Or, why doesn't Obama bail so Edwards can take Iowa? I don't care for any of the democratic candidates, but if I had to vote for someone--it'll be Edwards. Now if Gore was running--he'd have my vote in a N.Y. second.

Posted by truefaith Author Profile Page at November 14, 2007 5:59 PM

comment #10

D.Z. Author Profile Page says ...

Why should Edwards be nominated? He had his chance to stop vote fraud in Ohio, and he blew it.

Posted by D.Z. Author Profile Page at November 14, 2007 6:14 PM

comment #11

christian Author Profile Page says ...

I think Edwards is going to get it. And with Obama as VP, it would be sweeping. But too much ego involved.

BTW, if you're a liberal, you'd look to Kucinich not Ron Paul. Kucinich has repeatedly stood up to the Bush people fearlessly. And Paul just said he'd endorse Kucinich if he had to make a choice.

Posted by christian Author Profile Page at November 14, 2007 6:36 PM

comment #12

Brigadier Pudding Author Profile Page says ...

Paul is regressive, not progressive. He hates all government and thinks everyone should be on their own, except for the wealthy who can band together to protect each other. He is medieval.

Posted by Brigadier Pudding Author Profile Page at November 14, 2007 6:47 PM

comment #13

D.Z. Author Profile Page says ...

christian: If Edwards couldn't hack it three years ago, what makes you think he'll be nominated now? He had his chance, and more advantages than Kerry, and he still blew it. He's just splitting votes between Hillary and Obama, and wasting time addressing issues he should have addressed in 2004. If he gets nominated, I'd be ok with voting for him, but it'd be a miracle.

Posted by D.Z. Author Profile Page at November 14, 2007 7:36 PM

comment #14

JackeyAces Author Profile Page says ...

Hillary's support is a mile wide but an inch deep but there is no real alt. Her resume is weak but better than the rest of the field. Obama needs to go run for Gov. 1st. Ron Paul laughs at Edwards chances. Edwards would do worse then John Kerry.

RudyRudyRudyRudyRudyRudyRudyRudyRudyRudyRudyRudy

Posted by JackeyAces Author Profile Page at November 14, 2007 9:18 PM

comment #15

moviesquad Author Profile Page says ...

Obama needs to drop out of the race. The media built him up to be this amazing candidate, and it turns out he's a dud. He has no new or interesting ideas. He lacks charisma when you see him speak even after the huge effort to label him as charismatic by the media.

Posted by moviesquad Author Profile Page at November 15, 2007 9:59 AM

comment #16

christian Author Profile Page says ...

Yes, I've never understood the Obama hype outside of his charisma and the fact that a black man is at least in the top tier candidates. But he doesn't inspire with policy choices or direction or even showing up for a vote against torture. People project what they want onto him, like Jeff and Andrew Sullivan.

But Rudy please. What with Kerik and his molestor prist and family upheaval and even Nw York firefighters against him, he's weak weak weak.

Oh and Bush just dropped to a new record low approval of 24 percent! And Rudy wants to govern like Bush! Bring it

Posted by christian Author Profile Page at November 15, 2007 10:31 AM

comment #17

Sean Author Profile Page says ...

As far as I've been able to tell, a large portion of Hilary's support is coming from the fact that people have already decided that she has it in the bag.

At a certain point, that sort of tide of inevitability is sufficient to get the nomination (if not the election), but oftentimes, it seems to peak too early and jump from candidate to candidate before truly settling in.

The fact that D.Z. doesn't believe in him confirms my longstanding belief that Edwards will get the nomination and, since he's certainly more electable than Obama or Hilary, he'll probably get the win as well.

Although, that said, I have noticed that Democrat supporters tend to be like Mets fans. Every year, Mets fans will tell you that this is their year guaranteed, last year they was robbed, etc. It usually starts directly after the World Series, although in the case of this year's spectacular collapse, I expect it will start around the New Year, possibly as late as spring training. Every year they talk the talk about how they can't possibly lose this year... and yet they manage to pull of the unthinkable loss time and again. And many of their supporters convince themselves that it's some outside force -- a conspiracy of umpires! -- that keeps them from winning.

At some points, Democrats have to recognize that even though they are speaking *for* the disenfranchised, the Republicans do a much better job of speaking *to* the disenfranchised.

Posted by Sean Author Profile Page at November 15, 2007 10:49 AM

comment #18

jeffmcm Author Profile Page says ...

"The fact that D.Z. doesn't believe in him confirms my longstanding belief that Edwards will get the nomination"

Ha! I'm guessing Kucinich is DZ's candidate, although he might be too thoughtful and reasonable for a fringe-dweller like him.

Posted by jeffmcm Author Profile Page at November 15, 2007 11:04 AM

comment #19

RoyBatty Author Profile Page says ...

I'm sorry, was there anything interesting after "Robert Novak is reporting..." at which point my sphincter tightened up so tightly I spent the night shoving coals up there to become a very rich man.

Sorry, but I'll never hear or read the name Novak without remembering that deep down conservatives are so thin skinned that they will pretty much commit treason (outing agents and all) rather than hear dissent.

Posted by RoyBatty Author Profile Page at November 15, 2007 11:17 AM

comment #20

BurmaShave Author Profile Page says ...

Gaaaaaaaah. Richard Armitage. Moderate. Opponent of the war in Iraq. Gaaaaaah. When will this stop?

Posted by BurmaShave Author Profile Page at November 15, 2007 11:36 AM

comment #21

christian Author Profile Page says ...

When justice is done my friend and All The President's Men fall with no pardons...

Posted by christian Author Profile Page at November 15, 2007 12:53 PM

comment #22

D.Z. Author Profile Page says ...

christian: "But he doesn't inspire with policy choices or direction or even showing up for a vote against torture."

Yeah, well, Edwards didn't seem to speak out against it in '04.

Sean: "The fact that D.Z. doesn't believe in him confirms my longstanding belief that Edwards will get the nomination"

I didn't believe in him three years ago, and he didn't get nominated then...The guy is this generation's Gary Hart-i.e. someone who wasted their potential and who no one cares about anymore.

jeff: "Ha! I'm guessing Kucinich is DZ's candidate, although he might be too thoughtful and reasonable for a fringe-dweller like him."

If Kucinich gets Georgie impeached, I'll definitely vote for him.

Posted by D.Z. Author Profile Page at November 15, 2007 3:20 PM

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