O'Neil believes in "Sweeney Todd"

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We all love the nerve and passion that led The Envelope's Tom O'Neil to declare yesterday that Tim Burton's Sweeney Todd "will win Best Picture, Best Director and Best Actor" and is "a good bet to sweep the Oscars."

I think I know what led Tom to this point -- "voices" (not unlike the ones that spoke to Joan of Arc and Howard Beale) have come to him in the middle of the night and said, "Tom...psst, wake up! It's looking like a Sweeney Todd sweep could happen...seriously!" I know those voices. They came to me last January and said, "Eddie Murphy doesn't have it locked for Best Supporting Actor."

Some are doubting Tom's vision, of course. These are the non-believers, the John Gielguds and Richard Widmarks of the Oscar-handicap world. (Reference: Otto Preminger's Saint Joan.) New York magazine's "Vulture" guys aren't saying O'Neil needs to be burned at the stake, but they've come out against his vision foursquare.

I've heard and read the same encouraging buzz everyone else has. The second biggest impression was that recent screening on the Universal lot that led to a Cinefantastique.com review that called Tim Burton's film, in part, "a very satisfying musical horror film. Not a gothic London period tragedy but a classic horror flick in the vein of Phantom of the Opera...[that] occasionally morphs into an out-and-out blood bath."

My strongest impression is still that publicist telling me a few weeks back that "it's too bloody" to be an Oscar film, along with my own conviction that Tim Burton doesn't make Oscar-type films because of his skewed taste, temperament and attitude.

I remain convinced that Burton's peak period was from the mid '80s to mid '90s-- a time when he could do no wrong and made films like Pee Wee's Big Adventure, Beetlejuice, Edward Scissorhands, The Nightmare Before Xmas and Ed Wood. The Big Downturn began with Mars Attacks and then bottomed out with Planet of the Apes. Big Fish was going to be the Big Turnaround (David Poland was a big fan) but then the balloon collapsed and then along came Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, which many people regarded as the final nail in the coffin of the man who directed Beetlejuice.

In Sunset Boulevard William Holden said that the shoeshine guy across the street "never asked any questions...he'd just look at your heels and know the score." With Burton all you have to do is look at his jowly, Orson Welles-ian appearance. He used to be this cool effete thin guy with the odd visions and frizzy hair who was ahead of the curve. What happened?

A damp and bedraggled Tom O'Neil strides into the Los Angeles Times building on Spring Street. A security guard watches him approach the elevator bank. Security guard: "Good evening, Mr. O'Neil." O'Neil: "I must make my witness!" Security Guard: "Sure thing, Mr. O'Neil."

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Posted by Jeffrey Wells on November 1, 2007 at 10:10 AM

comment #1

f.bush says ...

Is this Tom O'Neil's "Phantom of the Opera" Moment?

Posted by f.bush at November 1, 2007 12:29 PM

comment #2

brooklyn says ...

I think Laura Linney is going to win Best Actress. I saw The Savages last night and I'm convinced she's going to get it. Wait...is this post going to appear? I'm not sure -- I'd better post it a second time.

Posted by brooklyn at November 1, 2007 12:31 PM

comment #3

brooklyn says ...

I think Laura Linney is going to win Best Actress. I saw The Savages last night and I'm convinced she's going to get it. Wait...is my second posting going to show up? I'd better post it ONE MORE TIME just be sure.

Posted by brooklyn at November 1, 2007 12:32 PM

comment #4

brooklyn says ...

I think Laura Linney is going to win Best Actress. I saw The Savages last night and I'm convinced she's going to get it.

Posted by brooklyn at November 1, 2007 12:32 PM

comment #5

PhilContrino says ...

Everyone who follows the Oscars closely likes to throw out a bold odd-ball prediction here and there so that at the end of things we can say, "I told you so" and feel smarter and more perceptive than everyone else.

In all fairness, Best Picture does seems to be pretty wide open...

Posted by PhilContrino at November 1, 2007 12:43 PM

comment #6

gruver1 says ...

Wells to PhilContrino: The Best Picture race is not wide open...it's down to six or seven candidates, at most. Where do you get "wide open"?

Posted by gruver1 at November 1, 2007 12:48 PM

comment #7

Jeff says ...

Oh man, I remember reading the Big Fish script year before it came out and was convinced the movie was going to be huge and win tons of Oscars. Unfortunately, although I did enjoy the final product for the most part, it didn't quite gel the way I thought it would. Oh well.

Posted by Jeff at November 1, 2007 1:05 PM

comment #8

erniesouchak says ...

Actually I think Burton's "skewed taste, temperament & attitude" wouldn't be as much of a handicap if he had a clue about narrative.

Posted by erniesouchak at November 1, 2007 1:11 PM

comment #9

MichaelC says ...

I think you could argue that the race is wide open in the sense that no film has emerged as front runner for the win, and of the legitmate contenders (I count nine) there is still no consensus what the final five will look like.

Not that it matters much because the voices tell me that Atonement is going to run away with it the second it opens.

Posted by MichaelC at November 1, 2007 1:19 PM

comment #10

PhilContrino says ...

PhilContrino to Wells: I meant wide open as in who will win, not so much as who the nominees will be. I agree that the list of potential nominees is down to 6 or 7.

Basically, I don't think there is a clear favorite at this time which means that anything can happen and any of the main contenders can start running away with it.

I guess it depends on what your definition of wide open is, but for me having 6-7 frontrunners and no clear leader of the pack meets that definition. And it's especially true this year because I can attach a lot of negatives to all of the frontrunners and that always makes things trickier.

Posted by PhilContrino at November 1, 2007 1:19 PM

comment #11

vermontfudge says ...

First time poster here. Just wanted to mention that the statement in quotes in your article above is actually your quote from a previous article in which you commented on the Cinefantastique article,not a quote from the Cinefantastique article itself. I assume you were in a hurry, but the way its worded it certainly looks like you were quoting Cinefantastique. In the post above you said :"The second biggest impression was that recent screening on the Universal lot that led to a Cinefantastique.com review that called Tim Burton's film, in part, 'a very satisfying musical horror film. Not a gothic London period tragedy but a classic horror flick in the vein of Phantom of the Opera...[that] occasionally morphs into an out-and-out blood bath.'"

In your previous article you wrote:"There was a research screening last night of Tim Burton's Sweeney Todd (Dreamamount, 12.21), and it played, for most viewers, as a very satisfying musical horror film. Not a gothic London period tragedy but a classic horror flick in the vein of Phantom of the Opera, says one observer. Oh, and it occasionally morphs into an out-and-out blood bath." So you've quoted yourself in today's column, not Cinefantastique.

Cinefantasque's column was a rave, the first paragraph reads:"Got a sneak peak at SWEENEY TODD on Tuesday, and it is absolutely fantastic - one of the best things Tim Burton has ever directed! The film was not finished (the closingcredits were missing, and the sound mix will be tweaked over the next five weeks), but barring ratings problems, this appears to be the final cut in all its gory glory. The movie is pretty much your dream of what it would be, when you first heard that Burton and Johnny Depp would be turning the Stephen Sondheim musical into a movie: itÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s a dark, brooding horror-musical-comedy that hits all the right notes." The Cinefantastique article never calls it a "flick," never mentions Phantom of the Opera, never calls it a "blood-bath," these are all your comments. Just wanted to mention that since I'm sure you and the author of the article wouldn't want that mix-up.
(links to the articles are in your article above, but I figured most people wouldn't read both articles line by line to notice the problem)

Posted by vermontfudge at November 1, 2007 1:37 PM

comment #12

thatmovieguy says ...

Since Day One, SWEENEY TODD has always been a piece that many people respected and a lot of people simply did not get. The movie is unlikely to change that. The combination of semi-operatic music (with some of the toughest harmonies in musical theater history) and copious amounts of blood and depravity doesn't sit well with sizable portions of both the "I love musicals" crowd and the "gore galore" fans. I took a friend to a production of SWEENEY a few years ago and he bolted after the first act, noting, "It's very well-done and interesting, but I just can't watch any more of it. It's too strange." That's not an uncommon reaction, especially among older viewers (a.k.a. Oscar voters). They'll fall all over themselves for ATONEMENT, though.

Posted by thatmovieguy at November 1, 2007 1:43 PM

comment #13

snazzy says ...

So after only several years of Internet Oscar prognostication sites we've officially entered the era of sniping and counter-sniping before potential contenders have even been seen by the press!

There is a logical reason why Tom O'Neil would make a hunch that Sweeney Todd could sweep. First the source material, which has apparently been faithfully transferred to the screen is brilliant. This is no Sir Andrew fake operetta. It's widely considered one of the great pieces of theater of the 20th century.

If Depp could get a nomination as a pirate, what's to suggest that he won't win playing one of the great tragic characters in all of theater?

And if Burton has been burdened with unfocused screenplays that blunt the impact of his movies, does anyone question his abilities as a director?

Far from going out on a limb, O'Neil seems to be responding to early reports of the film's success, and being familiar with the original material, can smell Oscar.

How many of the pundits who are dismissing his prediction even know anything about Sweeney Todd?

Posted by snazzy at November 1, 2007 2:43 PM

comment #14

Craig Kennedy says ...

So Jeff you undertsand what O'Neil is saying and you appreciate where he's coming from, but he's still wrong, is that the gist of what you're saying?

Sheez, I need a decoder ring lately.

Posted by Craig Kennedy at November 1, 2007 3:16 PM

comment #15

Craptastic says ...

I wouldn't start Burton's fall on "Mars Attacks!". Sure, the box office was nil to none but I know a lot of people, myself included, who love that movie. It definately found its life on video.

"Planet of the Apes" is another story...

Posted by Craptastic at November 1, 2007 3:25 PM

comment #16

BurmaShave says ...

Orson Wellesian appearance? Last time he was on The Tonight Show to promote NIGHTMARE BEFORE CHRISTMAS he looked about 180. So in 20 years he's gone from 150,160 to 180, 190 maybe. Not exactly letting himself go. Plus he's putting babies in Helena Bonham Carter. I'd say he's doing just fine.

Posted by BurmaShave at November 1, 2007 3:49 PM

comment #17

Craig Kennedy says ...

Everytime I think I forget Burton remade Planet of the Apes, they pull me back in...

Posted by Craig Kennedy at November 1, 2007 3:49 PM

comment #18

Jean says ...

I imagine the public's reaction to ST to be the same as the audience's reaction to the school play scene in Kevin Smith's JERSEY GIRL (which I thought was a very charming film).

Posted by Jean at November 1, 2007 3:55 PM

comment #19

Sean says ...

The trailer for 'Sweeney Todd' makes it look as bad as 'Sleepy Hollow'. It's not going to win anything.

Best Picture is up in the air, Best Director is Ridley Scott's to lose, and Best Actor is Brad Pitt.

Unless Miramax (or is it Paramount?) decides to push Bardem as Best Actor instead of Supporting (which I think they legitimately could do); he'll win whichever award he's up for.

Seems like Amy Ryan is locking down the Supporting Actress, too.

Posted by Sean at November 1, 2007 5:29 PM

comment #20