Oscar Locks so far

email this story
read comments (19)
post a comment

You won't find much debate about Roger Deakins being locked to win the Best Cinematography Oscar (for the combination of No Country for Old Men, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford and In The Valley of Elah). It also seems as if Tony Gilroy is locked to win the Best Original Screenplay Oscar for Michael Clayton (i.e., as a consolation for not winning Best Picture or perhaps not even being nominated), and that Joel and Ethan Coen are locked to win the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar for capturing the pruned-down essence of Cormac McCarthy in their No Country screenplay. What others are worth mentioning? Ratatouille for Best Animated Feature?

"Speechless" videos are up<< previous | next >>Tapley dings "Bucket" boys

Posted by Jeffrey Wells on November 22, 2007 at 1:47 PM

comment #1

ZacharyTF says ...

Remember last year when Emmanuel Lubezki was the lock for Best Cinematography for Children of Men? How did that turn out?

If Juno takes off and is a monster hit, I can see Diablo Cody winning the Original Screenplay Oscar.

Does James Vanderbilt stand a chance for his terrific Zodiac screenplay? I hope so.

With the underperformance of Beowulf so far at the B.O., I think Ratatouille winning Animated Feature is pretty much a lock at this point.

Posted by ZacharyTF at November 22, 2007 2:12 PM

comment #2

Mike Schaefer says ...

If the Oscar (like some critics awards) were given for the body of a year's work, Deakins would be a lock; but if he gets nommed twice (for NCFOM and AOJJBTCRF) he'll compete against himself and then he's screwed. Of course, given Warners' treatment of the latter film, I doubt they're running a serious Oscar campaign for it.

Posted by Mike Schaefer at November 22, 2007 2:35 PM

comment #3

Filipe says ...

Ratatouille is far bigger lock than anything Wells mentions (all of which qualifies as stuff bloggers wish were locks).

Posted by Filipe at November 22, 2007 2:48 PM

comment #4

scooterzz says ...

warners seems to be running a pretty serious campaign for 'jesse james'... lots of trade ads and a two disc screener (in time for thanksgiving, no less).....

Posted by scooterzz at November 22, 2007 3:09 PM

comment #5

mutinyco says ...

Christopher Hampton could take the screenplay award from the Coens for Atonement. I feel, if anything, the push is to get the Coens a directing statue.

Posted by mutinyco at November 22, 2007 3:57 PM

comment #6

ASD says ...

Jeff, this whole post seems wildly off-base and premature (duh). No one aside from Poland is talking about Michael Clayton as a best picture nominee. The best original screenplay Oscar has morphed into the best comedy of the year award with 3 out of the last 4 winners coming from that world (I guess Crash could also be considered a comedy of sort). If Juno picks up any speed at all (which seems inevitable at this point) then Ms. Cody is sure to be the biggest benefactor of this.

The Academy has no concept of what cinematography means so while the camera branch may nominate Deakins, there's no way he wins for James (which is a total non-starter) or Country which doesn't call attention to itself enough. Remember last year when they gave the award to the guy who shot Spy Kids cause he lit all kinds of cool sets and makeup in Pan's? That's how the Academy thinks.

Again, screenplay for No Country is premature. The film is receiving most attention for its performances and direction but 99% of the griping you hear about the film has to do with the film's (lack of) adaptation. You think all the people who are annoyed by the way the film ends are giving the film best screenplay?

Posted by ASD at November 22, 2007 4:10 PM

comment #7

EOTW says ...

TG deserves it for Michael Clayton. I've seen it three times already and can't wait to go back to it ASAP.

Posted by EOTW at November 22, 2007 6:21 PM

comment #8

JD says ...

Yeah, Gilroy has a lock on the Oscar... for best dull, by-the-numbers, utterly familiar and conventional film that critics like because it's cynical about the right things and shot like an Alan J. Pajula film.

Posted by JD at November 22, 2007 8:00 PM

comment #9

JD says ...

Okay, that should have been Alan J. Pakula, but Pajula sounds cooler.

Posted by JD at November 22, 2007 8:02 PM

comment #10

atticusrex says ...

ASD: "film's (lack of) adaptation? Dude... NCFOM is one of the most stellar of adaptations in that whole scenes and especially the dialog are lifted right off the page!

Sure the Coens pared down some scenes and left out a scene that shows who Anton worked for. They also shuffled a couple of scenes and added a Dog chasing Moss instead of extending the chase scene.

But of all the books I have read that have turned into movies I can't think of a better adaptation that stayed so close to it's original text.

So yes give the Oscar to the Coens for this... even though it is also what keeps them from Best Picture in terms of it's hard to give them a nod that this is their best film since they didn't birth it like all their others. But it is right up there with their finest work.

Posted by atticusrex at November 22, 2007 10:15 PM

comment #11

Joe Leydon says ...

Sorry: The best female performance of the year is one that most certainly will not get an Oscar nomination -- Christina Ricci in Black Snake Moan.

Posted by Joe Leydon at November 22, 2007 10:53 PM

comment #12

Luke Y. Thompson says ...

Janusz Kaminski's cinematography on THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY strikes me as awards-worthy, and more creative than anything he's done for Spielberg.

But it is a movie in French. That may work against it.

Posted by Luke Y. Thompson at November 22, 2007 11:50 PM

comment #13

jeffmcm says ...

I'd say that Christina Ricci's Black Snake Moan performance merely helps to redeem her for a decade or so of bad, bizarrely overrated performances.

Posted by jeffmcm at November 23, 2007 12:06 AM

comment #14

ASD says ...

Atticus:

I think you misunderstood what I was going for. They took so much of the book (including the ending that so many are having issue with and put it in the film) causing some to gripe that the film is too loyal to the source material. Hence they didn't "adapt" it so much as they did re-stage it for the screen.

Posted by ASD at November 23, 2007 12:25 AM

comment #15

atticusrex says ...

ASD: My bad then... I get what you were saying now. That said though... isn't that what Best Adapted means?

I'll say one thing, Cormac is not an easy read. His writing style is most unusual yet his dialog is spot on. It's an amazing read once you get past his writing style.

It's going to be an interesting year at the Oscars (I hope) There really doesn't seem to be a Big Hollywood Studio film worth getting all excited about. Charlie's War perhaps... otherwise all the other possible contenders seem to be Indies or 'out-side-the-studio-norm.

Posted by atticusrex at November 23, 2007 5:06 AM

comment #16