Sunday box-office
With Saturday's figures now in, one will argue with the concept of Fred Claus being a major flop, especially in relation to cost. The total weekend projection for the Warner Bros. release has been lowered to $17,781,000, or about $2 million less than Friday's projection. A popular family film usually gets a bump of about 50% on Saturday, but Claus only went up about 20%. It'll be a push to make $50 million on this thing, which won't begin to match the combined production and marketing costs. Plus it stannds a good chance of suffering a drop of over 50% next weekend (11.16) with Mr. Magorium's Magic Emporium expected to snag a large piece of the family trade.
The problem is Claus star Vince Vaughn, whom the family audience apparently sees as an R-rated motor-mouth (the Wedding Crashers persona) and therefore not kid-friendly, even if he's portrayed as a grinning 8 year-old riding around on a kid's tricycle in the one-sheet. WB marketers tried but couldn't sell Claus to big enough portion of the family audience. A guy told me he went to see it yesterday and saw a few parents and kids but mostly twentysomethings. Yesterday's haul was $7,600,000, which was up about 20% from Friday.
Oh, and the per-screen average for No Country for Old Men is $41,000, which translates to a total weekend tally of $1,151,000. A sensational opening, to say the least. Of course, the Coen Brothers film is playing to hip urban audiences. No one knows what will happen when it starts playing for the dumb-asses in Redville on 11.21.
Dead Claus Postcript: Variety's box-office story projects an estimated $19.2 million -- very optimistic! ("Christmas movies are a marathon, not a sprint.") MCN's Len Klady has estimated $18.5 million. A friend who knows this game pretty well is predicting the low 18 range.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on November 11, 2007 at 9:44 AM
comment #1
gruver1
says ...
gruver1 to HE readership: I had to buy a second computer last night due to virus problems in the main unit. Ate up hours & hours, kept me up until 2:30 ayem.
Posted by gruver1
at November 11, 2007 11:19 AM
comment #2
p.Vice
says ...
Rule #1 in the world of internet commerce: Thou shall not download porn on thy work computer.
Posted by p.Vice
at November 11, 2007 11:22 AM
comment #3
bachelorcool
says ...
Dead Claus.
Posted by bachelorcool
at November 11, 2007 11:24 AM
comment #4
Aris P
says ...
why did it tank? b/c it sucked and is derivative pap, or was it decent but no one was in the mood to see it? i'm curious. if it's shit i'm glad it tanked. either way, vaughn's a one-note "actor". i used to work at his manager's company, and you wouldn't believe the doubting and second-guessing his manager would go trough before advising him on roles. i suspect it will all be moot eventually.
Posted by Aris P
at November 11, 2007 11:32 AM
comment #5
MathewM
says ...
Perhaps they should of followed the Bad Santa model and made Fred Claus a low-budget, raunchy comedy. I have to think that it would of played funnier even though I didn't particularly like Bad Santa.
Posted by MathewM
at November 11, 2007 11:33 AM
comment #6
gruver1
says ...
Wells to bachelorcool: That's pretty funny. Good one.
Posted by gruver1
at November 11, 2007 11:35 AM
comment #7
Zimmergirl
says ...
Ack, that's horrible. I hope you went Mac this time?
Posted by Zimmergirl
at November 11, 2007 11:45 AM
comment #8
Zimmergirl
says ...
PS why no mention of the American Gangster getting beaten by Bee Movie in its second week of release?
Posted by Zimmergirl
at November 11, 2007 11:48 AM
comment #9
scooterzz
says ...
i've been saying for weeks that the problem isn't vince vaughn...the problem is that the movie is a huge pile...those who saw it told those who didn't....
love 'dead claus'....
Posted by scooterzz
at November 11, 2007 11:50 AM
comment #10
MathewM
says ...
"PS why no mention of the American Gangster getting beaten by Bee Movie in its second week of release?"
Maybe because while AG is a critical darling it's demographics are decisively urban. The problem is that it's made with the care of a Hallmark movie courtesy of Brian Grazer and lacks the charms of Scarface (exotic violence, ridiculous dialog and over the top acting) to make it truly appealing to its audience.
Posted by MathewM
at November 11, 2007 12:00 PM
comment #11
Chinaski
says ...
To the people saying it tanked because it's terrible or derivative...I don't think that's really true. Didn't stop Christmas with the Kranks or any Tim Allen christmas movie from being massively succesful. You just gotta know how to sell crap, and it appears they didn't.
Posted by Chinaski
at November 11, 2007 12:17 PM
comment #12
christian
says ...
Jeff, how many times does your computer have to shit before you dump pc and get a mac? My apples have crashed exactly...never in over 15 years. You could get an powerful excellent powerbook for dirt cheap these days. Join us.
Posted by christian
at November 11, 2007 12:28 PM
comment #13
Zimmergirl
says ...
You'd have to pry my Mac from cold, dead fingers.
Posted by Zimmergirl
at November 11, 2007 12:43 PM
comment #14
Brian O
says ...
It's holiday 2003 all over again!
Four family films over four weeks. Something has to fail. They can't all be hits.
Posted by Brian O
at November 11, 2007 12:46 PM
comment #15
D.Z.
says ...
"The problem is Claus star Vince Vaughn, whom the family audience apparently sees as an R-rated motor-mouth (the Wedding Crashers persona) and therefore not kid-friendly, even if he's portrayed as a grinning 8 year-old riding around on a kid's tricycle in the one-sheet."
Perhaps, but Jack Black had a hit song with foul language in it, and he was still able to sell School of Rock and Nacho Libre.
Anyway, it's easy to call Fred Claus a paycheck film, but I genuinely believe Vaughn wanted to do something which would appeal to general audiences, and prematurely signed up for this failure without reading the script.
Posted by D.Z.
at November 11, 2007 1:03 PM
comment #16
PerfectTommy
says ...
Nothing about "Lions for Lambs" tanking? Perhaps someone could write something about the performance of these Iraq war films?
Posted by PerfectTommy
at November 11, 2007 1:06 PM
comment #17
Noel Murray
says ...
Wells on BEE MOVIE's opening weekend:
"The DreamWorks insect comedy is enjoying its one moment of triumph before the weak word-of-mouth catches up and Vince Vaughn's Fred Claus steals the family business away next weekend."
Also, on the bad early reviews for FRED CLAUS:
"Won't matter...never matters! The family audience will fork over for anything Hollywood cranks out as long as it's kid-friendly and well-marketed with two or three big names."
Care to comment, Jeff?
Posted by Noel Murray
at November 11, 2007 1:16 PM
comment #18
Rob
says ...
"Perhaps someone could write something about the performance of these Iraq war films?"
Yes, what an inspired angle that would be. Someone, please, blow the lid off this hot lead.
(Also, In the Valley of Elah was the only major film this fall that had anything to do with the Iraq War, no? The Kingdom took place in Saudi Arabia, Lambs is mainly about Afghanistan, and Rendition is about a terrorist attack in an unnamed North African country.)
Posted by Rob
at November 11, 2007 1:34 PM
comment #19
jeffmcm
says ...
Everybody must have grown accustomed to it, but I feel compelled to highlight Wells's daily condescending paternalism: "No one knows what will happen when it starts playing for the dumb-asses in Redville on 11.21."
DZ: Vince Vaughn is not Jack Black. Two different commodities with different expectations and perceptions. One is cuddly and mom-friendly, the other is libidinous and more 'grown-up'. Acceptable?
Posted by jeffmcm
at November 11, 2007 1:40 PM
comment #20
D.Z.
says ...
"Two different commodities with different expectations and perceptions. One is cuddly and mom-friendly, the other is libidinous and more 'grown-up'. Acceptable?"
How is a guy who wrote a song called "Fuck Her Gently" and starred in a movie where he dates a fat Paltrow more mom-friendly?
Posted by D.Z.
at November 11, 2007 3:12 PM
comment #21
jeffmcm
says ...
I'm not trying to explain it, I'm just telling you that it's so. You can accept it as a fact, especially given that next year Black has out Kung Fu Panda and Vaughn has a David O. Russell movie. One is for kids, the other isn't. Or you can stubbornly refuse to accept anything that doesn't fit into your painfully narrow pespective on life.
Posted by jeffmcm
at November 11, 2007 4:16 PM
comment #22
le corbeau
says ...
It has nothing to do with what you actually do, but Jack Black is a cuddly lovable teddy bear and Vince Vaughn is the guy who tells the best dirty jokes in the office and scratches his nose with his middle finger in meetings with his boss. I'm sure there must be even more mismatched actors for kid films-- Udo Kier comes to mind-- but he's right up there.
Posted by le corbeau
at November 11, 2007 5:28 PM
comment #23
D.Z.
says ...
Mgmax: Fair enough. I just figured his image would have changed after dating Aniston.
Posted by D.Z.
at November 11, 2007 6:03 PM
comment #24
D.Z.
says ...
Anyway, if Bee Movie did this bad, even after beating American Gangster, I'm wondering how it'll bode for Beowulf.
Posted by D.Z.
at November 11, 2007 9:35 PM
comment #25
jeffmcm
says ...
(sigh...)
Bee Movie is the #1 movie in America and has grossed $72m in ten days of release. It's doing well. Not spectacularly, but certainly not badly. And since it's aimed at a totally different market (families/kids) than Beowulf (teens/mainstream), there is no reason to compare them box-office-wise.
Posted by jeffmcm
at November 11, 2007 10:03 PM
comment #26
movieirv
says ...
With Weding Crashers in its wake, the movie looked too much like Bad santa even with the PG-rating. And as much as people dug the movie, many were offended by it. Hence, the numbers for Fred Klaus.
Posted by movieirv
at November 12, 2007 3:47 AM
comment #27
le corbeau
says ...
I agree, it was impossible to tell if it was a kids' movie from the trailer. Certainly seemed to be about adult concerns, unless 10-year-olds think more about corporate takeovers than I realize.
Posted by le corbeau
at November 12, 2007 6:19 AM
comment #28
Rich S.
says ...
The only surprise is that Fred Claus didn't make money as a kind of knee-jerk reaction to family films as Jeffrey predicted. The trailers were awful. There was nothing in them to even make you crack a smile.
Posted by Rich S.
at November 12, 2007 7:13 AM