comment #1

Bart Smith says ...

But I guess the studios still aren't going to be making any money from the Internet.

comment #2

the king says ...

Great, another box I'll have to add to my entertainment center. Maybe it will be IPOD size!?

comment #3

christian says ...

Gosh, I sure hope the studios knew what they've been planning long before the strike.

I mean, the studios stand to lose multi-millions from this crapshoot. Don't they have research analysts? Do they alays fly so blind into dangerous media terrain?

My God, these studio folk are like astronauts or soldiers, boldly jumping into completely uncharted territory. I sure hope they know what they're doing. They stand to lose everything with this foolhardy step into the unknown...

comment #4

ROTC says ...

Perfect timing for this announcement. Although Apple hasn't come out and said it, this is eventually going to kill not just HD-DVD but ultimately BluRay as well. As I've long predicted, we're witnessing the beginning of the end of the sell-through market for films on disc.

comment #5

mutinyco says ...

Downloads aren't going to kill disks.

1) The quality won't be as good.

2) No special features.

Downloads will be a fine way to build a library of instantly watchable movies. But disks will stick around for the reasons listed above. Furthermore, as Blu-Ray expands its storage capacity, I'd expect deluxe disk editions that feature both the movie and the HD video game on either side.

comment #6

Mark says ...

There's little reason that top quality + features can't be accessed via download in the near future. Thus the above reasons are moot.

But you're right in that discs will stick around for a while. The main reason, however, is that when given as a gift, they wrap 100 times better than does a steamable file.

comment #7

Bart Smith says ...

"Downloads aren't going to kill disks.

1) The quality won't be as good.

2) No special features."

1) The iTunes rentals are going to be available in HD and will be much better quality than standard DVD.

2) The average consumer doesn't care about special features.

comment #8

K. Bowen says ...

I'm always skeptical about claims that one technology is going to kill off another technology. And i always assume that a good portion of the new technology is eventually going to go the way of the digital watch after 20 years.

comment #9

mutinyco says ...

1) According to the new iTunes update all movies are in 480. There's no mention of any other res. Even if it was higher, it'd probably still only go 720. 1080 on a disk is better.

2) Of course they care about special features. Otherwise special features wouldn't exist.

comment #10

ROTC says ...

What Bart Smith said.

Mark wrote: "... when given as a gift, they wrap 100 times better than does a steamable [sic] file." How much good has that giftability quality done for the CD market?

comment #11

Alan Cerny says ...

I still like owning movies. If the market starts skewing away from ownership to rental, I will download movies and burn them to DVD guilt-free.

comment #12

ROTC says ...

mutinyco, take a look at the picture at the top of this page. Rest assured, they will be going HD - if not immediately, then soon enough.

And I take it as an article of faith that special features are a great marketing tool that in reality few people ever watch or listen to. To say otherwise is a bit like still believing most people will buy a CD because it comes with a booklet.

comment #13

mutinyco says ...

Downloads will ultimately do fine. I'll probably do it through iTunes.

But in contrast, the reason music downloads took off was because it altered the business model in a matter that pleased consumers: they could now purchase at low cost single songs instead of entire CD's.

As well, with DVDs, what they offered was higher quality, but also special features which people had never seen before (commentary, different endings, outtakes, etc.). Downloads will be an easy means to watch movies (rentals make the most sense), but disks aren't going anywhere -- the reason the studios like Blu-Ray is because of its capacity for special features.

comment #14

CMed1 says ...

You can already do this if you have a tivo. Amazon allows you to rent movies and have them delivered to your tivo. You don't have to wait 30 days after the dvd release also. Apple is not an innovator with this plan.

comment #15

mutinyco says ...

ROTC-

All HD is NOT THE SAME. And that's the scam. Companies say "HD" knowing that consumers think it's all the same quality. But it isn't.

Disks are 1080. Downloads are usually 720.

1080 is better. And with it, you get special features -- whether they're marketing tools or not.

Downloads will be nice for rentals or to build a basic library. But disks aren't going anywhere.

comment #16

Mark says ...

ROTC; how much good has that giftability quality done for the CD market?

The answer is that giftability has propped up the cd market remarkabley well. Sales are down of course, and i've never said that DVD sales won't drop as well. But CDs will still be available at all major retail shops simply for their giftability. Do you really think that people are buying Josh Grobin and High School Musical 3, 2007's highest selling cds, for themselves?

comment #17

ROTC says ...

mutinyco, some of the stuff on Apple's website (e.g., movie trailers) is already available for viewing in 1080i. I see no reason why movie rental streams or downloads can't have the same option.

comment #18

Rich S. says ...

"But disks aren't going anywhere."

That's correct. They will be clogging landfills for millennia.

comment #19

Bocephus says ...

Movie rentals on Apple TV are $2.99 for library titles, $3.99 for new releases. Fuck that, subscription for unlimited rentals or I walk. With netflix I can see a lot more movies for my buck.

Once you hit play, you have 24 hours to finish the movie. Fuck that. With netflix I can hold on to the disk for a few days and re-watch it if I need to.

The really skinny laptop they announced was pretty cool though.

comment #20

corey3rd says ...

this explains why Steve Jobs has screwed us Mac users when we want to enjoy Netflix WatchNow feature. Which is free for PC folks.

comment #21

Howlingman says ...

Downloads will replace conventional medium...

When your average mom or pop can download, burn and watch on whatever device they choose, all with the push of a button. The fact they can't is the reason that downloading has only taken off with a relatively small segment of the population.

comment #22

ROTC says ...

Mark, there is some truth to what you are saying, but you are grossly understating the impact downloads have had on the CD business and the music industry in general.

comment #23

mutinyco says ...

ROTC-

Here's the answer: file size.

On Apple, a 51 second trailer (The Orphanage) in 1080 is 181 MB. At that rate, a 2-hour movie would be 25,200 MB or 25.2 GB. Which is unfeasible for downloading.

So what they do is create highly compressed files. I believe Microsoft's 720 downloads are in the neighborhood of 4 GB.

And guess what you're losing with the smaller file size? Quality.

comment #24

ROTC says ...

mutinyco: Moore's Law. At the rate things are going, do you honestly believe a 25 GB download is going to be "unfeasible" a couple of years from now?

comment #25

mutinyco says ...

ROTC-

Yes.

Where are you going to store a library or 25 GB movies? And think about the bandwidth usage.

Downloads are fine for a basic library and rentals -- which is very convenient. But disks will remain the standard or quality. Plus, people can borrow and trade disks. You won't be able to do that with DRM'd hard drive downloads.

comment #26

ROTC says ...

mutinyco, all due respect but you seem to be coming at this from a very narrow, short-sighted perspective. Personal hard drives are already available in terabyte size, and it's reasonable to expect that kind of capacity to continue to increase exponentially and quickly. Same with bandwidth usage.

As for the rest of your argument (shared by others on this page), I wouldn't be so sure that all that many people are going to care as much about owning a space-consuming library of discs when they can have the same quick, convenient access to any movie they want with a few strokes of their keyboard.

comment #27

mutinyco says ...

ROTC-

They're not going to offer 25 GB files for download. Just as mp3 files are 5-6 times smaller than CD music files. Mp3 isn't as good as a CD. But it's good enough for most people.

I never said downloads wouldn't be successful. I even said I'd use them. But you're mistaken if you think disks are going away.

comment #28

christian says ...

And this shiny new rotten apple has NO INTERNAL DVD or DISC DRIVE. Fuck that. Air is right.

So they seem pretty confident that we'll all be dowloading shit. The studios, not so much?

comment #29

mutinyco says ...

The Air superdrive is $99 extra. That's a way to get some extra money for now. I'm sure it'll go standard in the future.

comment #30

hatchetface says ...

Discs aren't going anywhere.

comment #31

Craig Kennedy says ...

Discs will go away one day, but in the mean time I have a TV I want to milk for all it's worth. Thank you PS3/Blu-Ray!

comment #32

AJW says ...

If this means that Apple will never be joining Netflix's 'Watch it Now' system, then I currently own my one-and-only Mac.

comment #33

Devin Faraci says ...

I wrote about this last week (http://www.chud.com/news/13101) - the disc is dead. Only collectors want discs, and the vast majority of people are not collectors. They just want the movie. They don't want to keep it forever, they just want to see it. And guess what - most people don't care about HD either. The quality of downloads will not have to be as good as the quality of discs because 90% of the buying public gives not a shit. In ten to fifteen years, discs will be like vinyl - only appealing to a limited niche of people.

And anyone who is talking about storage not being big enough or about broadband not being fast enough is just not paying attention. How big was your hard drive ten years ago? How big is it today? How fast was your connection in 1998? How fast is it today?

comment #34

christian says ...

The disc is dead.

Long live the new disc.

comment #35

ROTC says ...

What Devin said. (Which is almost identical to the points I already made above.)

christian wrote: "So they seem pretty confident that we'll all be dowloading shit. The studios, not so much?" christian, all of the studios are already aboard the new Apple rental system.

comment #36

mutinyco says ...

Here's the problem with the argument.

I'm saying downloads will do fine, and although they're inferior, they'll be good enough for most people. It's an easy way to build a collection and to rent. But disks aren't going anywhere. There will be people who prefer the quality and like the extra features -- and the ability to chapter skip.

On the other side, and here's the problem, Devin and ROTC are hailing the death of disks. And the problem is, you're both wrong.

The answer is never one-sided, but a mixture.

But then again, you're talking to somebody who only releases in Quicktime and refuses to release in YouTube, even though it'll do more hits. Quality is quality.

comment #37

ROTC says ...

mutinyco, who says you won't be able to chapter-skip on downloads?

Look, I don't necessarily disagree with you about the continued ability of discs to survive. The question is merely one of commercial viability. Lots of people still prefer the sound quality of LPs to CDs. They're still produced, albeit to a very limited extent. But they've been in a tiny niche corner of the marketplace for an incredibly long time. The same thing is eventually going to happen to CDs and DVDs.

What you also fail to acknowledge is that, apparently unlike you, a lot of people loathe accumulating multiple physical discs. People love their iPods not just because they can download portable music onto them but also because they can put their entire music collection into one tiny device. If they can do the same with their movie collection, who knows? They may buy MORE movies because those purchases won't create as much clutter in their homes.

comment #38

christian says ...

The studios, not so much?"

"christian, all of the studios are already aboard the new Apple rental system."

Yes, obviously. That was snark directed straight at the studios who have been claiming they don't know if the internets are profitable. Do y'all get that this makes their claims bullshit?

I expect the WGA to jump all over this as proof.

comment #39

mutinyco says ...

Comparing downloads to DVD/Blu-Ray is not the same as LP's to CD's. CD's offered a quality, size and features that LP's never could -- they fundamentally altered, in a good way, the manner in which people listened to music. Just as cassettes altered habits by their size and portability (Walkman). That's also why downloading was successful -- the manner in which we listened to music was altered (we could now own single songs instead of entire albums).

None of that applies to movie downloads. The only thing it offers is convenience. And because of that, as I said, it's perfect for building a library and rentals. But the disks will still be superior, and they'll be around as long as the electronics companies and the Wall Marts want them (Wall Mart just shut down its download service...).

comment #40

christian says ...

Everybody's Nostradamus.

Yet only I know the truth...

comment #41

ROTC says ...

mutinyco, you are clearly locked into a present-day perspective, so I give up. Apple's announcement is about the future, not the fairly minor limits of the here-and-now. All of your concerns (many of which appear to be unsubstantiated) will surely be addressed quickly as this format takes off and rapidly evolves.

comment #42

AJW says ...

"None of that applies to movie downloads. The only thing it offers is convenience. And because of that, as I said, it's perfect for building a library and rentals."

So it's perfect for people who buy movies and people who rent movies? Who else is there with substantial market power?

comment #43

Devin Faraci says ...

Here's the dirty secret of this: you won't have a library anymore. You won't be able to buy movies anymore. Either you'll pay a monthly fee to watch movies from the big huge catalog (the size of the fee will determine how many movies per month/week/whatever), or you'll pay per view. Rental is the way of the future. There was a two decade window when owning movies was a popular thing, but that window is going to close.

comment #44

christian says ...

And vinyl is dead.

Thank God we have Apple to dictate the terms of our media future!
I thought we might have a choice in this free market...

comment #45

T. S. Idiot says ...

Netflix will offer a similar product before end of 2008. One hopes it works with wireless.

comment #46

Rich S. says ...

And then there's this:

http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2007/12/04/why-low-def-is-the-new-hd/

I don't agree with all his arguments, but overall his presentation is pretty compelling.

When I need coasters in the next couple of years, at least I'll know who to call. By that same token, if any of you need any place mats, I've still got a dozen or so since my LD player broke down. I bought them after I was assured that it would be many years until they could capture LD's quality on a CD-size disc....

comment #47

MG_movies says ...

The one thing no one is mentioning is that disc-based storage media is going to be around for some time. Video professionals and others who have mass amounts of data to back up relish the idea of a disc that can store nearly 40GB. So Blu-ray is not going to die a death any more than Betamax did. Betamax morphed into the pro format Betacam which is still around today. So while I agree that downloads are the future of home entertainment, disc media is not going anywhere anytime soon.

comment #48

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