Sisterhood

Hanover and Dartmouth College aren't in yet, but the statistics say that female New Hampshire voters went for Hillary Clinton big-time (as opposed to Iowa females who went slightly more for Barack Obama).

The sympathy/empathy factor -- she's one of us, give her a hug -- is what gave Clinton a surge. One, Hillary saying "well, that hurts my feelings" in the debate. And two, the watery eyes and choking up in yesterday's coffee-shop discussion. Go with your emotions and give your sister a hug. A wise and brilliant call by N.H. women.

Oh, and it was warmish out so a lot more over-60 female voters decided to brave the elements. And a bigger slice of the independents decided to vote for McCain at the last minute than anticipated. And don't discount the return of "the Bradley effect" -- it may be a lot more prevalent than we're willing to admit.

I said last week that in the realm of the Democratic primaries, John Edwards is almost Ralph Nader. That's changed now. I was scolded for those words and I now see the error of them. Edwards is Ralph Nader. If Clinton wins the nomination, a good portion of the blame will be on his head.

Posted by Jeffrey Wells on January 8, 2008 at 6:57 PM

comment #1

p.Vice Author Profile Page says ...

Boo hoo, bitches.

Posted by p.Vice Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 7:08 PM

comment #2

D.Z. Author Profile Page says ...

Bah, girl power won't save Hillary anywhere else where people have to work for a living.

Posted by D.Z. Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 7:13 PM

comment #3

Hardy Author Profile Page says ...

I can't believe that someone would base a vote on that. If that is so, than this country is in a sad state.

Posted by Hardy Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 7:19 PM

comment #4

djiggs Author Profile Page says ...

When Obama loses tonight, there are two men who deserve the blame for losing New Hampshire. One, John Edwards for deciding to siding with Obama in the debate and basically going 2 on 1 on Hillary Clinton. When the trial lawyer attack dog of Edwards' personality came out in the debate, I think that he continued the furor of the misogyny/"Hate Hillary" campaign. Second, Barack Obama took his foot of the gas and coasted the last few days. Whatever you say about Hillary Clinton, she worked until the last vote was done.

Posted by djiggs Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 7:22 PM

comment #5

Dirty Harry Author Profile Page says ...

There's plenty of emotion behind the Obama vote. I would argue that's all most liberals vote on.

Posted by Dirty Harry Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 7:28 PM

comment #6

jjgittes Author Profile Page says ...

So, Obama's lethargic smug, baffling final debate performance is Edwards fault.

Obama excites the electorate and it's because he's "messenger of change". Hillary does it and it's because the electorate are having a sista moment and the warm weather agrees with their arthritis.

Ridiculous Jeff....really, come on. There's no way to justify a vote for Hillary as an anti-intellectual vote.

Posted by jjgittes Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 7:38 PM

comment #7

djiggs Author Profile Page says ...

AP calls New Hampshire for Clinton. Believe it.

Posted by djiggs Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 7:39 PM

comment #8

Walter Sobchak Author Profile Page says ...

Professional sleazeball Terry Mcauliffe is gloating. Andrea Mitchell looks happy. Mcauliffe is actually pointing out Hillary's "emotional moment" as a turning point. Matthews looks like he's gonna cry. Olbermann continues his normal douchebaggery.

Hillary to speak in ten minutes. Loud robot-talk alert.

Posted by Walter Sobchak Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 7:45 PM

comment #9

djiggs Author Profile Page says ...

Jeff Wells,

Even Obama is conceding now. Call it. Friendo.

Posted by djiggs Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 7:45 PM

comment #10

gruver1 Author Profile Page says ...

I'm going out for a drink. Make that two.

Posted by gruver1 Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 7:46 PM

comment #11

Walter Sobchak Author Profile Page says ...

Chicks.

Posted by Walter Sobchak Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 7:48 PM

comment #12

snackyx Author Profile Page says ...

The Empire Strikes Back.

This just in...Hillary Clinton will be getting misty on Friday at a 9am breakfast, dabbing her eyes and choking up at a luncheon on Saturday and will pull a full Ed Muskie next Monday at approx 4:15-4:30pm during a library visit.

Posted by snackyx Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 7:49 PM

comment #13

Dirty Harry Author Profile Page says ...

WOW! THis is why I love politics. All the pundits, prognosticators, pundits, and know-alls were wrong. Votes really do matter.

As Rich Lowry said, "I thought hope was sweeping the country -- that was so 2pm."

Posted by Dirty Harry Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 7:49 PM

comment #14

djiggs Author Profile Page says ...

Can we stop the most overused phrase in the human history? "We want change." Well, I've got some nickels, dimes, and pennies but I am out of quarters.

Posted by djiggs Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 7:53 PM

comment #15

gansibele Author Profile Page says ...

A nice tall glass of sore loserness mixed with misanthropy and garnished with some ageism for Jeff. Bwahahahahaha. Face it, Obama is empty words, short on substance. Iowa was a caucus, this is an election. Big difference.

Posted by gansibele Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 7:53 PM

comment #16

Dave Author Profile Page says ...

Speaking the obvious-- this makes SC a must-win for Obama.

He loses there, it's over for him. Nice insurgency of hope you had there, enjoy going back to the Senate-- maybe you'll have time to show up for votes now.

As for the GOP. . . I effing hate New Hampshire. I want to take McCain and Huckabee, lock them in a room, and forget they ever existed. Please?

Posted by Dave Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 7:55 PM

comment #17

le corbeau Author Profile Page says ...

Can we stop the most overused phrase in the human history? "We want change." Well, I've got some nickels, dimes, and pennies but I am out of quarters.

Yes, I love that the Democratic primary is being run on Newt Gingrich's mantra from 1994.

Of course, the Republican Iowa caucus was won by a big government socialist, so it's not THAT funny.

Posted by le corbeau Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 7:56 PM

comment #18

Walter Sobchak Author Profile Page says ...

Obama's speaking. When finished, we'll get a shot of the misty-eyed Chris Matthews.

And then Olbermann will start jerking off about how all of this is clearly a slap in the face of "Mister Bush".

Posted by Walter Sobchak Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 7:57 PM

comment #19

christian Author Profile Page says ...

It's always great to see the media pundits eat shit. Kos said that Hillary was dead in the water. He gets to write for Newsweek.

Posted by christian Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 8:18 PM

comment #20

Michael Author Profile Page says ...

In your face, Wells.

Posted by Michael Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 8:22 PM

comment #21

mattn Author Profile Page says ...

I don't think you understand how the nominating process works, Jeff. Edwards is nothing like Nader. If the delegate count broke down like the NH vote percentages (which because of superdelegates it won't precisely), no one would win the nomination on the first ballot. Then Edwards could act as kingmaker, by throwing his delegates to one side or the other. All Nader could do was act as spoiler, because of the winner-take-all nature of the presidential election.


Or --my fantasy -- none of the three give up, and the convention turns to Gore as compromise candidate. I think I saw this in a movie once.

Posted by mattn Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 8:22 PM

comment #22

sumo-pop Author Profile Page says ...

Fuckin ass clowns and cowards. That's what democrats are. does anyone really believe that she will win the general election? And if by some razor thin cunt hair she does are we not in for 4-8 more years of divisiveness and "petty" crimes. The people of NH had a real opportunity to look to the future or stay stuck in the past. Which do you think they chose. Maybe Obama should have fucking cried. I mean are you kdding me?!?!?! Ass clowns and cowards, ass clowns and cowards.

Posted by sumo-pop Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 8:26 PM

comment #23

Zoidberg Author Profile Page says ...


I wonder if it was Hillary's little near-crying incident from yesterday that gave her the last minute edge....
You know, like how a chick will sometimes cry when she gets pulled over so the cop will feel sorry for her, and not give her a ticket.

Same thing.

Posted by Zoidberg Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 8:43 PM

comment #24

D.Z. Author Profile Page says ...

From Bushflash.com :

And to the Obama supporters:

Keep fighting- don't let 7,000 votes in a small primary stop you. McCain took NH in 2000, and we all know where that got him.

Remember: Nothing in life worth having comes easy. If ya'll had cruised to victory, you would have not have had that chance to glean the wisdom that setbacks so often teach...

And besides, Hillary can't keep crying, everytime she's behind.

Posted by D.Z. Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 8:52 PM

comment #25

corey3rd Author Profile Page says ...

perhaps enough voters in NH were disgusted by Mike Barnacle of the Boston Herald going on about the end of the Clinton Dynasty that they voted for her? Plus the entire day Fox dedicated to "the end of Hilary's campaign" deathwatch.

Posted by corey3rd Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 9:03 PM

comment #26

SpinDozer Author Profile Page says ...

'Olbermann will start jerking off about how all of this is clearly a slap in the face of "Mister Bush".'

Every non-Thompson/9ui11iani vote is a slap in the face of BDS'rs eveywhere, get used to it, dummy. 70% of the population is well aware of what a piece o' shit your hero is.

Posted by SpinDozer Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 9:22 PM

comment #27

CharlieDontSurf Author Profile Page says ...

This is your 2008 tickets

Republican
McCain/Huckabee or McCain/Random gov. or Huckabee/X

Democrat
Clinton/Strickland or Clinton/Richardson

Unity 08
Bloomberg/Obama

Posted by CharlieDontSurf Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 9:29 PM

comment #28

cobhome Author Profile Page says ...

I can't believe so many allegedly intelligent people on this site would believe the "sista sympathy" vote did it for Hillary - peoples behavior is rarely that simple - Frankly - I do not get the nostalgia for the Clinton era - it wsn't that great - and electing Hillary ain't bringing back the 90's even for those who suffer from the delusion it was such a great time - I also wonder to what extent people support Obama cause they just want to get this country's history of racism behind them - elect a black man - and racism is all over.

Posted by cobhome Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 9:48 PM

comment #29

Rosebudsthesled Author Profile Page says ...

If anyone has to be the Democratic VP candidate, it should ideally be Jim Webb, senator from Virginia and former navy secretary for Reagan. He can help in his state, but he's also got tons of experience, and he's converted to the Democrats. If Hillary or Obama gets the nomination, they should seriously consider picking him as their running mate.

Posted by Rosebudsthesled Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 10:24 PM

comment #30

Walter Sobchak Author Profile Page says ...

I have to swallow my pride and admit that SpinDozer nailed me but good. You are right. President Bush, (or, in your words, that "piece o' shit") is my hero. I WORSHIP him. And you are also correct in your statement that 70% of the country HATES Bush and agrees with you that he is a piece of shit.

It's really that simple.

Thanks for clearing that up.

Dick wipe.

Posted by Walter Sobchak Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 10:28 PM

comment #31

Walter Sobchak Author Profile Page says ...

Take this to the bank:

Either Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama or John Edwards will win the Democratic nomination.

Posted by Walter Sobchak Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 10:31 PM

comment #32

Terry McCarty Author Profile Page says ...

A question for the ages:
Hillary's show of emotion: real or the equivalent of the foot-tapping-in-wheelchair scene in BOB ROBERTS?

Posted by Terry McCarty Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 11:17 PM

comment #33

Walter Sobchak Author Profile Page says ...

The polls said Obama would win handily, but Hillary pulled it out in the end.....

hmmmm

Diebold! Karl Rove! Investigations! Stolen ballots!

Posted by Walter Sobchak Author Profile Page at January 8, 2008 11:35 PM

comment #34

jeffmcm Author Profile Page says ...

DZ, you're an idiot.
Harry, you've got it backwards.
Wells, this is where I side with the Naderites: if Obama was such a great candidate, he wouldn't be spoiled by the presence of Edwards, he would seal the deal on his own.
Otherwise, your persistent 'why can't these people get on the Obama train' posts are the precise reverse of your persistent 'why are all these people on the Amy Ryan train' posts.

Posted by jeffmcm Author Profile Page at January 9, 2008 12:11 AM

comment #35

SpinDozer Author Profile Page says ...

'Dick wipe.'

You sweet ole puss.

Posted by SpinDozer Author Profile Page at January 9, 2008 3:45 AM

comment #36

le corbeau Author Profile Page says ...

I can't believe so many allegedly intelligent people on this site would believe the "sista sympathy" vote did it for Hillary - peoples behavior is rarely that simple

I don't think it's as simple as "I'm a 55-year-old woman, so is Hillary and the bastards made her cry, I'll show them!" She's very good at the kind of retail, item by item politics that appeals to people of that age because it's about concrete problems they have. Obama's vague "change" stuff likewise appeals to younger people because they tend to go around saying everything sucks, man, but when challenged can't articulate a thing or what they'd do about it. (Ron Paul is popular for the same reason.)

That makes it sound like I'm approving of the concrete, specific Hillary and older folks approach over "change everything, somehow, man," but actually I find Hillary's "there's a way to spend more tax money on every corner of your life" much more dangerous than vague promises that probably won't result in entire new bureaucracies. So go Obama!

Oh, and this is for SpinDozer: All hail Bush! Praise unto him in his seat at Crawford! And unto the Dick at his right hand!

Posted by le corbeau Author Profile Page at January 9, 2008 4:57 AM

comment #37

Rich S. Author Profile Page says ...

Keep that January 6, 2008, 4:13 p.m. post handy. It seems to rally the Clinton base.

As I said in another thread, the candidate that is counting on the youth vote to turn the tide might as well start writing the concession speech right now.

Posted by Rich S. Author Profile Page at January 9, 2008 5:34 AM

comment #38

businesstoolz Author Profile Page says ...

Why this is some sort of "stunning victory" for Hillary is beyond me. Her winning this primary has nothing to do with "sympathy" or the "crying moment". This election went the way it should have. We're talking about a state that's entire voting block looks like Susan Sarandon. They we're never going to vote any other way than for Hillary. Being a huge Obama supporter I knew this and was "stunned" by the polls that had him way ahead in the first place.

The fact is you can't predict how an entire nation (say for instance 30 states that will vote on Feb. 5th) are going to break based on what happens in a state like fucking N.H. However, never underestimate the American people's appetite for the same. We are a nation that doesn't spend 300 million dollars to see fresh, new and exciting ideas. We are a culture that spends 300 million dollars to see Spiderman 3 and Indiana Jones 4. We don't eat at new places. We eat at Friday's. We don't shop at interesting mom and pop boutiques. We shop at Walmart. Amercians love what they know. They love comfort food. And more importantly they FUCKING love sequels.

However, everyone has to admit (no matter what your political stance) it would be pretty amazing to wake up on a Wed. morning in a country where Obama is president.

Posted by businesstoolz Author Profile Page at January 9, 2008 5:43 AM

comment #39

corey3rd Author Profile Page says ...

The reason for Rudy's poor showing is that his voters think they don't have to cast ballots for him until 9/11

Posted by corey3rd Author Profile Page at January 9, 2008 6:46 AM

comment #40

Dirty Harry Author Profile Page says ...

I think voters in NH took a long look at both candidates and saw that for all her flaws Hillary talks policy while Obama inspires with platitudes. She's simply more substantive than he is.

And maybe all those college kids so excited about Obama are registered in their home states and not NH...? Duh.

Obama is far from over but the fact is NH was an ideal environment for him to win and he didn't.

The media coverage was adoring for him -- blistering for her -- he lost.

He had the momentum -- she was facing rumors about pulling out -- he lost.

She made all the mistakes -- he made none -- he lost.

With nothing better to do now -- having already pummeled Hillary into the ground -- the media will now turn to Obama, and after 6 weeks of adoring coverage he's about to get scrutinized.

The best polling in the country (for obvious reasons) are candidate internals. Hillary's internals had Obama beating her by 11 pts. Obama's internals had him winning by 14. Wow. Just, wow.

Posted by Dirty Harry Author Profile Page at January 9, 2008 7:20 AM

comment #41

le corbeau Author Profile Page says ...

Obama is far from over but the fact is NH was an ideal environment for him to win and he didn't.

Not true, it skews older.

Also, it's had a lot of immigration from other northeastern states. And much as it might make steam come from Jeff's ears to hear this, there's a lot more prejudice against blacks among Democratic-leaning, union white ethnics on the east coast than there is among midwestern farm folks in Iowa. But then, they didn't have 20 years of court-ordered busing in Iowa, like they did in South Boston or Philly.

Posted by le corbeau Author Profile Page at January 9, 2008 7:34 AM

comment #42

Dirty Harry Author Profile Page says ...

Mgmax: In an open caucus where everyone's in the same open room while voting, Obama wins.

Behind the curtain voting in NH Obama loses.

You're right, a good question is: did race play a role?

Posted by Dirty Harry Author Profile Page at January 9, 2008 7:40 AM

comment #43

D.Z. Author Profile Page says ...

stool: I agree that Americans embrace familiarity, but they do occasionally move out of their shells with the right PR; and I think Obama's still got it. NH clearly isn't a state which is severely affected by the war or the economy. Thus, the voters there have the convenience of sticking with whoever fits the middle-of-the-road profile for them. In 2006, there was a similar situation, in CT. Everyone else voted anti-war, but that state still picked Joe. So Hillary's still going to have to work a lot harder in convincing everyone else that she can do things differently than Bush, since hissy fits are already something she has in common with him.

Posted by D.Z. Author Profile Page at January 9, 2008 7:41 AM

comment #44

le corbeau Author Profile Page says ...

Yes, I suspect people gave the trendy answer to pollsters and voted another way in private. Partly because the press was full of people bullying people that they're scum if they're not part of the Obama Pepsi generation...

I also think, though, that if the press hadn't built Obama's impending coronation up so insanely after Iowa, we'd see this story in another, at least equally logical way-- Obama, building on his Iowa win, chipped Hillary's long-running lead in NH down to a couple of points. Only the polls, which proved to be completely out of touch with planet Earth, ever suggested that it was Obama's in a walk and not Hillary's state all along.

Posted by le corbeau Author Profile Page at January 9, 2008 7:49 AM

comment #45

Dirty Harry Author Profile Page says ...

The Liberal Media Obama Love Machine also gave independents who might've gone for Obama the mistaken belief he was so far ahead why not vote for McCain.

Watching the liberal media mourn last night was almost as satisfying as watching them after those absurd exit polls made them so sure Kerry would beat Bush in a landlside.

Posted by Dirty Harry Author Profile Page at January 9, 2008 8:10 AM

comment #46

dixiedugan Author Profile Page says ...

If for some reason she does carry thru to be the Democratic nominee, I'll vote against her. I don't buy her 'poor me *sniffle sniffle* act' - and that's just what it is, an act. Being a woman, I'd love to vote for a woman...she's just the wrong woman.

Posted by dixiedugan Author Profile Page at January 9, 2008 8:10 AM

comment #47

christian Author Profile Page says ...

But DH, the official GOP meme is that the media LOVE the Clintons, you know, like the Clinton News Network joke I hear from Rush, etc...Hey, wha' happened?

Posted by christian Author Profile Page at January 9, 2008 10:32 AM

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