Douglas Oscar predix

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Coming Soon's Edward Douglas has posted his final Oscar prediction column. Absolutely no surprises (he doesn't even mention the apparent surge of Juno and Michael Clayton support in the Best Picture category) except for predicting Cate Blanchett to take the Best Supporting Actress Oscar, which I'm 90% convinced will go to Clayton's Tilda Swinton. "Hastiliy written," he says, "but heavily researched. Granted, some of my picks are those who I think should win, but I did think this stuff out, even going against the favorite Juno for original screenplay."

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Posted by Jeffrey Wells on February 21, 2008 at 6:30 AM

comment #1

PerfectTommy says ...

If one goes with the spreading the glory theory (which is suspect), it seems it will go either:

1) screenplay to Juno and best sup. actress to Tilton or

2) screenplay to MC and best actress to Page

I think the first is more likely

Posted by PerfectTommy at February 21, 2008 6:59 AM

comment #2

T. S. Idiot says ...

Atonement winning for score will be unjust for many reasons, the primary one being that it undercuts Redgrave's scene so badly as to diminish the overall effect of the film. How many instances of a cinematographer being nominated twice and winning? Leon Shamroy won for Cleopatra even though also nominated for The Cardinal. Others? I dearly hope Deakins wins for either one.

Posted by T. S. Idiot at February 21, 2008 7:51 AM

comment #3

T. S. Idiot says ...

Current results of Netflix poll of subscribers' guesses:
No Country: 40&
Blood: 18
Atonement: 17
Juno: 13
MC: 9

Posted by T. S. Idiot at February 21, 2008 10:09 AM

comment #4

EDouglas says ...

I still don't understand this theory for Tilda Swinton. Not sure how many of you ever had to vote or be involved with awards selection, but I don't know anyone who looks at a ballot (or even an online survey) and says "How can I reward this movie somehow... oh, I know, I'll give it a supporting actress nomination!" it just doesn't happen IMO. I think members look at the category, see which performances/people they know or have seen and go from there, and i can't imagine anyone doing this and selecting Tilda (as deserving as she is) over any of the others. If she does happen to win, it would be more due to vote-splitting between Blanchett and Ryan. I'm sure a lot of people justified Blanchet's win for Aviator over the favorite Virginia Madsen as some sort of thing like that but Aviator won many of the technical awards, where Scorsese should have been honored for his achievement.

Posted by EDouglas at February 21, 2008 1:25 PM

comment #5