comment #1

Me says ...

Unions. They've gone for Hillary and they're getting the vote out.

comment #2

Dan Revill says ...

Nice Vonnegut reference Wells.

As for unions, do they really hold that much sway in the USA? (I'm Canadian)

comment #3

le corbeau says ...

She may win both states, she'll probably win Ohio (unions turn out the vote much more effectively than Latinos), but I'd be floored if it was by anything like those margins. That's so contrary to where the race has been going.

Unions do not hold that much sway in the USA, but Ohio is exactly the kind of state where they do have pretty strong influence. (Though we'd have had a president Mondale if they were decisive; give social-conservative union members a Reagan and they'll vote for them no matter what the union says.)

comment #4

Geoff says ...

FUCK I hate looking at those polls.

comment #5

Gus Petch says ...

We'd all be talking about President Kerry's reelection campaign right now if he'd picked union darling Dick Gephardt as his running mate instead of John Edwards.

comment #6

Jay T. says ...

You're finally getting it. Polls = bullshit. Tracking = bullshit.

comment #7

rocco says ...

Philadelphia is the most corrupt, unionized city in the entire country. On the other hand, this city voted TWICE overwhelmingly for a black mayor who was ineffective, chosen as the worse mayor in America by Time, and did I mention corrupt?...

Should be interesting.

comment #8

Dirty Harry says ...

PA has an even stronger union base than OH.

Hillary thought she'd win on Super Tuesday and seal the deal -- or she ran out of money -- and so is just now creating a ground game infrastructure in her firewall states. Obama's is all set to go and has been for quite a while.

2 weeks is a long time. Anything could happen.

What Hillary is finally doing correctly is putting away the dirty tricks and constructively critizing Obama as the Empty Suit he is. She's going after his record and his vacuous speaking style. That's exactly what she needs to; undermine his strength as a speaker by stigmatizing it as hollow and pretentious.

To win elections you must turn your opponents strength into his weakness. It's why John Kerry lost thinking he'd coast on his war record. Suddenly his war record was undermined by his comrades and SNL was ridiculing him for bringing it up all the time.

When SNL starts making fun of the way Obama never stays anything -- when the King of Platitude is getting poked at by Jay Leno -- Obama's done. Because like John Kerry, Obama only has this one thing. Take it away and he's just another left-wing Senator promising to raise taxes, socialize healthcare, and surrender Iraq to al Queda.

Hillary can cut Samson's hair (there may still be time) but if she doesn't, we'll do it for her after she loses.

comment #9

rocco says ...

Also, regular joes don't really know how to interprate polls...a poll with a 3% margin of error DOES NOT mean that you can add or subtract 3% to a polling figure to get an idea of the possible outcomes...you always here (within the margin of error...those are just anchormen who don't understand statitics)...it means that 97% of past samples correlate to the expected outcome...but in that other 3% ANYTHING goes.

comment #10

dangovich says ...

Dirty Harry, your comparison of Obama and Kerry is ludicrous. Kerry was a cadaver. Obama is a much warmer, more charismatic presence. And yes, people do vote based on these things.

comment #11

le corbeau says ...

We'd all be talking about President Kerry's reelection campaign right now if he'd picked union darling Dick Gephardt as his running mate instead of John Edwards.

Better yet, if they'd nominated the solid, if a tad tepid, Gephardt instead of falling for that reviving the JFK mystique thing with John F. Kerry of Massachusetts and his wartime boatmates. Good thing there's no Kennedy revivalism going on this time!

comment #12

Dirty Harry says ...

dangovich, I'm not talking about their personal warmth, I'm talking about their strengths.

What you do is remove that strength, or better yet turn that strength against them in order to win.

Obama's warmer than Kerry, but Kerry had strengths Obama doesn't.

comment #13

mizerock says ...

Wow, maybe Bush didn't steal any elections after all. Statisticians who trusted the methodology were left to conclude that there was voting machine fraud.

comment #14

Todd says ...

It's nice to know the Democrats want to elect someone who did cocaine knowing his actions had negative consequences such as murder and gang warfare. Barak and I are the same age. I knew well enough not to contribute to the cocaine wars. But I guess his drug use can be forgiven. He was only in college at the time. I mean look what Hillary was doing at that age. Oh yeah the Child Defense fund, Watergate. Oh but how about Mccain what was he doing at that age. Having the guts to fight in an unpopular war. I'm sure Obama is the better candidate Oprah says so. After all didn't she recommend the plastic surgeon that last operated on Kanye West's Mom. But at least Obama has proven himself to be a good speaker even if he has no experience. After all Bush had none and he spoke of change when running for office. Look how well off we are with him.

comment #15

Dirty Harry says ...

I was watching Harball and Obama supporter Chris Matthews (who gets a broner when Obama speaks) made the mistake of asking Obama supporter and WI Gov. Jim Doyle to talk about Obama's accomplishments and Doyle couldn't think of any,

It was absolutely priceless.

comment #16

Todd says ...

Obama accomplished alot. He managed to destroy another chance for the working class to get a Presidential Candidate nominated that could possibly win the Whitehouse. But at least we could feel good about his feel good speaches. He also managed to get elected in uncontested senatoral elections state and federal. He also knows how to score a bag of cocaine and not crack. The Republicans are salivating at the chance to give Barak some campaign reality. Bill Clinton tried but Barak cried racism. He won't beable to do that during the general elections. That when it get's real.

comment #17

BurmaShave says ...

We'd all be talking about President Milkshake's reelection right now if we'd just had the foresight to nominate PRESIDENT MILKSHAKE.

comment #18

CitizenKanedforChewingGum says ...

Harry, you talk about strengths in absolutes when it's really comparative (i.e. how the candidate's strengthts measure up against each other).

As for your point about "staying anything," I don't think that's really a personality trait most Americans are looking for. Isn't that how we (and by "we," I mean mostly "Bush") got ourselves into this mess in the first place?

comment #19

CitizenKanedforChewingGum says ...

Harry, you talk about strengths in absolutes when it's really comparative (i.e. how the candidate's strengthts measure up against each other).

As for your point about "staying anything," I don't think that's really a personality trait most Americans are looking for. Isn't that how we (and by "we," I mean mostly "Bush") got ourselves into this mess in the first place?

comment #20

Stephe96 says ...

mizerock,

Exactly what I came in here to say; when the '04 election didn't go to Kerry, despite the polls, the libs screamed it was an obvious indication of voter fraud.

comment #21

SpinDozer says ...

'but in that other 3% ANYTHING goes.'

Rocco:

I am definitely not an expert on this, but this seems pretty far-fetched. It sounds like you are saying that if a 'margin of error' of plus/minus 3%' is quoted it means there is a 3% chance that Obama will get all the votes or Hillary will get all the votes, and everything in between. Why would you say plus/minus if that were the case?

From what I can tell, the Gormless Anchors/Newsreaders are right in this instance. If you have a source that explains it otherwise, I'd like to see it.

comment #22

christian says ...

Matthews is certifiably insane:

MATTHEWS: I have to tell you, you know, it’s part of reporting this case of this election, the feeling most people get when they hear Barack Obama speech…my…I felt this furrowing up my leg. And I don’t have that too often.

OLBERMANN: Steady…

http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/02/13/msnbcs-primary-coverage-a-little-advice-to-the-candidates

comment #23

christian says ...

Although it sounds more like "thrill going up my leg" which doesn't alter my prognosis.

comment #24

rocco says ...

my post was littered with spelling and grammar errors...but what i said was right (but slightly off, it's been a few years since business statistics)...

...when polls are stated as being within +/- 3%, that means that 95% of all samples (be it 30 people or 300 million) will fall within that 6-point range...but 5 percent of samples will fall outside of it...most polls are conducted with a 95% confidence level. It's the nature of extrapolating, for example, the results from a sample of 1,000 to represent 500,000...

There's nothing wrong with polling methods...we've just witnessed two high-profile exceptions.

comment #25

SpinDozer says ...

I kinda figured you meant something other than what you said! I do that a bit more than I care to admit.

I don't know about you, but I get these 3rd party tele-polls which are quite extensive in detail that are obviously done by candidates. The questions are phrased in such a manner that I cannot conclude anything other than they are doing market research to identify vulnerabilities and effectiveness of campaign rhetoric.

comment #26

Dirty Harry says ...

You can look at the polls all you want in 2004 but the reason John Kerry lost was because his war hero authority was completely undermined when his comrades disputed his credentials and politics of ridicule were employed about his unceasing use of his was record. Kerry was made into a national buffon. His strength turned against him.

Remove Obama's flowery (but dark and gloom) rhetoric and you've got a 3-yr Senator with the most liberal voting record in the Senate who's promising to raise taxes, socialize medicine, and surrender Iraq to al-Queda.

My point is that his abilities as a speaker have to be turned against him if Hillary or we are to beat him. That's the source of Obama's strenght and appeal. The Emporer has no record, no real achievements, or anything else to run on. He's running on uplifting speeches that say everything's bad and he's the messiah of change. Take that away and you have a chance.

comment #27

D.Z. says ...

Harry: "That's exactly what she needs to; undermine his strength as a speaker by stigmatizing it as hollow and pretentious."

What she needs to do is present herself as a viable alternative.

"To win elections you must turn your opponents strength into his weakness. It's why John Kerry lost thinking he'd coast on his war record."

Kerry didn't lose; Bush cheated.

"Suddenly his war record was undermined by his comrades"

I doubt they were comrades as much as paper-pushers who were jealous that they didn't get any action on the front lines.

"Because like John Kerry, Obama only has this one thing. Take it away and he's just another left-wing Senator promising to raise taxes, socialize healthcare, and surrender Iraq to al Queda."

He's got more than one thing. In fact, he's got more than one demographic right now, including the Bush-hating Republicans.

"The Emporer has no record, no real achievements, or anything else to run on."

At least he doesn't have a failed baseball team, a forced abortion, or a DUI record...

Todd: "It's nice to know the Democrats want to elect someone who did cocaine knowing his actions had negative consequences such as murder and gang warfare."

You mean someone who's black who did cocaine, seeing as Bush did blow, too.

"Barak and I are the same age. I knew well enough not to contribute to the cocaine wars."

The cocaine wars are the result of a Puritanical government obsessed with making illegal anything which involves a personal choice against oneself. You're just playing the race card.

"Oh but how about Mccain what was he doing at that age. Having the guts to fight in an unpopular war. "

He wasn't fighting, just getting his ass kicked.
Anyway, it doesn't take much courage to torch a village of women and children.

"I'm sure Obama is the better candidate Oprah says so. After all didn't she recommend the plastic surgeon that last operated on Kanye West's Mom."

At least she didn't shoot anyone in the face...

"He also knows how to score a bag of cocaine and not crack."

Yes, all black people do, right, Todd?

Stephe: "Exactly what I came in here to say; when the '04 election didn't go to Kerry, despite the polls, the libs screamed it was an obvious indication of voter fraud."

Probably due to the exit polls and the dysfunctional voting machines in black districts...