comment #1

Jay T. says ...

Yes, NOW it's over... when you said it was over six weeks ago, it wasn't.

comment #2

Wrecktum says ...

What if you add Florida and Michigan?

comment #3

CinemaPhreek says ...

Only, Jonathan Alter is probably not factoring in Puerto Rico which apparently always gives all 100 of it's delegates - regular & super - to the winner. In other words, they could end up picking the nominee if she starts erasing some of his lead today.

However, playing armchair analyst the other week I found even that will probably not save her.

Everyone has been focusing so much on Texas, Ohio and Penn they have forgotten North Carolina with 155 whopping delegates. It is polling 45/31/22 Obama/Clinton/undecided, which means he is going to clobber her there. So much so even the Florida and Michigan delegates might not matter.

comment #4

JohnCope says ...

I just wish this would end definitively tonight.

comment #5

christian says ...

Over? Did somebody say over?

It's not over until HE decides it's over!

comment #6

CinemaPhreek says ...

Keep in mind two things if you try to factor Florida/Michigan: Obama will also get delegates and Edwards could (and my gut feeling is would) then throw his 39 total delegates behind Obama further cutting the gain it gives Clinton.

comment #7

JHRussell says ...

Not only Puerto Rico, but what about that pesky FLA / Michigan delegation problem? More dems than just Hillary supporters are uncomfortable disenfranchising the voters in 2 of the most important general election states...me, I think it is funny, and I especially love the irony that Florida is one of the states where the votes will not be counted...Al Gore, call your office!

comment #8

dcc77 says ...

Christian: Thanks for always being additive.

I think the Democratic Party would have a much bigger issue if Florida and Michigan WERE included. How can the results count when Obama wasn't even on the ballot in one of these contests? Yes, the Dem voters in these states will be de facto disenfranchised, but they have their state Party geniuses to thank for this. I'm sure they were warned by the DNC.

That said, it would be ironic for FL...

comment #9

Dave says ...

Jeff, your party decided to use superdelegates as a mechanism to insert the wisdom of party leadership in case of this *very scenario*, where neither candidate reached the required number of delegates to nominate.

Hillary Clinton has a point-- it's not who has the most delegates, it's who gets the required number of delegates to nominate. That's the rules.

Of course, I also disagree with her stunt to get the Florida and Michigan delegates counted-- if she wants to play by the rules, she ought to be consistent. But whatever.

Anyway. . . she wins tonight, unless Al Gore rides in on his white horse, you're having a floor fight, pal.

comment #10

DarthCorleone says ...

The fact remains that unless Hillary drops out, this will still need to be settled at the convention. The fact also remains that Hillary has won many of the more populous "blue" states in the primaries and that Obama has won more of the "red" states, many of which the Democrats have no shot at winning in November. In terms of the Democratic Party's formulating a strategy for winning the general election, that raises all sorts of questions.

That said, I don't think that Hillary would have won those blue states as convincingly if the primaries were held again today, and I'd also just prefer that the candidate with the most total popular votes is the nominee. So, it seems to be Obama all the way.

comment #11

CinemaPhreek says ...

JHRussell - that's nice and snarky, but in the end totally not true.

This is about the nomination of the Democratic Party - not a general election. The Democratic Party has rules, which until last fall the Florida/Michigan members had no problems with. The party made it very clear - we don't give a fuck when you have your primary, just don't schedule it before February 5th. Pretty simple - it's their party and they can give themselves whatever rules they want.

To try to argue the "make the votes count" is pretty sophomoric. Florida and Michigan are now the kids crying out in the school yard about a torn shirt after losing the fight they picked in the first place.

comment #12

K. Bowen says ...

My guess is that they'll end up seating at least some of Michigan and Florida delegates. It's hard to say you have a legitimate choice when you're not counting delegates from two of the largest states.

comment #13

K. Bowen says ...

Yeah, it might be time for the Dems to get Al Gore up and throwing in the bullpen.

comment #14

UnChien says ...

Remember when Obama wasn't black enough? Hillary made sure he is now http://www.americablog.com/2008/03/why-is-obamas-skin-blacker-than-normal.html

comment #15

musealien says ...

"What an admirable human being she is. What a wonderful way to play the game."
For pity's sake, she's running for President of the United States. She's won some, she's lost some, the game isn't over. The idea that she should just step aside is ludicrous. Whatever you think about Hillary, one of the reasons she's still there is because she believes (as all candidates do) that she would be a better nominee/president than her opponent; she has her own vision of how to be president; she's been running for this job for several years. You REALLY think that she should just say 'to hell with it' when there's still all to play for? REALLY? Isn't that at best naive and at worst a totally simplistic way of looking at politics.

And for the record you make your points as if everything you say is obvious to the entire world. For me, a Democrat, the idea that Obama will be the nominee, let alone the president, is ridiculous. A totally untested candidate with no experience whatsoever, no policies of note, and a speech style that is high-school-debate rhetoric at best. And NO, Jeff, that doesn't make me a racist. I just don't think the man has any business whatsoever running for president. And I absolutely believe that Hillary is the best candidate for the job.

comment #16

sardine says ...

tom brokaw says 50 super delagets are ready to announce for Obama soon.

comment #17

JHRussell says ...

"To try to argue the "make the votes count" is pretty sophomoric."

You have mistaken me for someone who gives a shit how this gets resolved - I don't want it resolved - I want it to destroy the party, or at least foul up the Dem's chances in the general election.

Why don't you take out ads in Florida newspapers telling the voters there that they are acting like cry babies over their worthless votes that are worthless because it is their own damn fault - yeah, that will be well received. Been a political adviser long, CinemaPhreek?

And you are fooling yourself if you think that disenfranchising the voters of 2 of the largest electoral vote states is not a concern for the Dem Party, no matter what the circumstances or whose fault it was...

comment #18

K. Bowen says ...

Hilary has a secret weapon, which is that Republicans are going to start turning out to vote for her, and she seems to be courting them.

comment #19

CinemaPhreek says ...

dcc77 - they were more than warned. On August 25th they DNC Rules committee met and gave Florida 30 days to reschedule their vote, ample warning that Florida couldn't just act like Bush and do whatever it wanted regardless of what the rest of the party felt was right.

It's ironic that some are making the argument that the treatment of Michigan and Florida is counterproductive for the general election. THAT is exactly why only Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina were the only sanctioned primary season states. It allowed the more GOP-leaning states to have a say in the process. It also allowed less deep-pocketed and organized candidates a chance to build momentum.

comment #20

JHRussell says ...

CinemaPhreek:

You are missing the point. Part of the reason the parties hold conventions is to get all the faithful inside the revival tent, get everyone fired up to go out and spread the good word for the home stretch run to the general election.

To not seat the delegations from Michigan and Florida, to not give them (and the voters of those states) a voice or stake in the process, is foolish.

Like I said - I am loving it - the Dems have shot themselves in the foot with this issue, and with the super delegate fiasco - I am sitting back and enjoying the show.

comment #21

Gus Petch says ...

Here's an interesting take on a possible Hillary path to the nomination. The upshot is that, with good performances in the remaining primaries, Hillary could be leading in the popular vote total by the convention, especially if Florida votes are considered. If that happens, she could make a strong "moral case" to the super-delegates that she deserves the nomination.

comment #22

Wrecktum says ...

"The fact also remains that Hillary has won many of the more populous 'blue' states in the primaries and that Obama has won more of the 'red' states, many of which the Democrats have no shot at winning in November."

Straw man argument. Your assumption is that these "blue" states would somehow vote for McCain in the general election, which is insane.

comment #23

Midwest Doug says ...

I don't see how the Michigan Democratic delegates could be seated without them hosting another caucus -- Obama and Edwards weren't even on the primary ballot. Clinton was on the ballot and got a majority of votes, though a serious minority voted 'Uncommitted'. Clinton's calls for the Michigan delegates to be seated just shows what a win-at-all-costs loser she is.

JHRussell, keep in mind it wasn't the Dems in Florida and Michigan, but both parties, that voted to have an earlier primary. The Repubs just had a different penalty -- only half of the delegates would be seated. The Dems had a stricter penalty, and if they don't stick with it I'll be disgusted.

comment #24

D.Z. says ...

muse: "A totally untested candidate with no experience whatsoever, no policies of note, and a speech style that is high-school-debate rhetoric at best."

So what exactly has Hillary said and done which makes her "superior"?

comment #25

Jay T. says ...

"Hilary has a secret weapon, which is that Republicans are going to start turning out to vote for her, and she seems to be courting them."

Umm... for the primary? That would seem rather difficult.