Oscar '08 Bait
What '08 films at this time next year will almost everyone be sick of talking and writing about due to their having recently won the top five Oscar awards? Right now eight are considered the most likely Oscar contenders, but what are the dark horses that no one's spotting right now? There are always three or four sleepers that seem to suddenly arrive and catch on big-time.
Nicole Kidman, Hugh Jackman in Baz Luhrmann's Australia.
The top eight, I suppose, are (1) Baz Luhrmann's Australia (20th Century Fox) with Nicole Kidman and Hugh Jackman; (2) Steven Soderbergh's The Argentine and (3) Guerilla (Focus Features) with Benicio del Toro; (4) Gus Van Sant's Milk (Focus Features) with Sean Penn; (5) Gabriele Muccino's Seven Pounds (Sony) with Will Smith; (6) David FIncher's The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount/Warner Bros.) with Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett; (7) Joe Wright's The Soloist (DreamWorks) with Jamie Foxx and Robert Downey Jr.; and (8) Ridley Scott's Body of Lies (Warner Bros.) with Russell Crowe and Leonardo DiCaprio.
My money's on the Fincher, the two Soderberghs, the Wright and the Luhrmann.
Also in the mix: Sam Mendes' Revolutionary Road (Paramount Vantage/DreamWorks) with Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet; Clint Eastwood's The Changeling (Universal) with Angelina Jolie; Ron Howard's Frost/Nixon (ditto); Joel & Ethan Coen's Burn After Reading with George Clooney and Tilda Swinton (almost certainly not an Oscar movie); John Patrick Shanley's Doubt (Miramax) with Meryl Streep and Philip Seymour Hoffman; Fernando Meirelle's Blindness with Julianne Moore and Mark Ruffalo; Ed Zwick's Defiance (Paramount Vantage) with Daniel Craig; Saul Dibb's The Duchess (Par Vantage) with Keira Knightley; Bryan Singer's Valkyrie (MGM-UA) with Tom Cruise; and Stephen Daldry's The Reader (Weinstein Co.).
Leonardo DiCaprio in Ridley Scott's Body of Lies.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on March 2, 2008 at 9:57 PM
comment #1
erniesouchak
says ...
If Scorsese can actually make the scheduled release date, "Shutter Island" has some possibilities. Also, "State of Play" (dir. Kevin Macdonald) looks interesting, but I'm not sure if that's '08 or '09.
Posted by erniesouchak
at March 2, 2008 10:10 PM
comment #2
Dan Revill
says ...
Isn't there anything going on that's relative to this month? I know it's your blog, but Oscar talk for next year? How about waiting a month? Or are the studios already paying for FYC ads?
Posted by Dan Revill
at March 2, 2008 10:11 PM
comment #3
Terry McCarty
says ...
It's not too early to be talking about THE OTHER BOLEYN GIRL qualifying for next year's Razzies.
Posted by Terry McCarty
at March 2, 2008 10:14 PM
comment #4
Craptastic
says ...
For me, anything with Baz Luhrmann gets nixed from the get-go.
Posted by Craptastic
at March 2, 2008 10:21 PM
comment #5
Cinexcellence
says ...
I'm curious about Kaufman's Synecdoche, New York. It might be a contender.
Posted by Cinexcellence
at March 2, 2008 10:21 PM
comment #6
Mr. Gittes
says ...
Australia has bust written all over it.
Look out for Imperial Life in the Emerald City - Damon and Greengrass, that's a winning combo.
My number one is Benjamin Button.
Posted by Mr. Gittes
at March 2, 2008 10:24 PM
comment #7
K. Bowen
says ...
None of those films really, really excite me, honestly. Benjamin Button, somewhat.
Posted by K. Bowen
at March 2, 2008 11:00 PM
comment #8
AHFan
says ...
-Nom for Daniel Craig for Best Actor and/or a Supporting Actor nod (which actor is supporting in the film?) for the Zwick movie
-Nom for Leo for Best Actor but will lose again
-Nom for Benicio and will win
-Nom for Best Director for Australia (Sundowners or is it Far and Away 2.0 or neither?)
Posted by AHFan
at March 2, 2008 11:10 PM
comment #9
kingspiffo
says ...
I'd like to say "Australia", but I just can't stand that title. Maybe it's because I live in Australia and it just sounds wrong for the title of a movie.
Posted by kingspiffo
at March 2, 2008 11:20 PM
comment #10
AHFan
says ...
Terry, how about Hayden Christensen for Worst Actor -Awake & Jumper, Samuel L. Jackson for Worst Hair-Jumper, and for both Worst Actress & Movie Eva Longoria PARKER for Over Her Dead Body?
Posted by AHFan
at March 2, 2008 11:43 PM
comment #11
JB Moore
says ...
Isn't John Hillicoat's adaptation of THE ROAD supposed to be out this year? Just askin'.
Posted by JB Moore
at March 3, 2008 12:39 AM
comment #12
BurmaShave
says ...
I have to say I agree with Aladdin. This is a great blog about the film year, but it's way too soon to be talking about the Oscars. I loved reading THE BANK JOB review and IN BRUGES before that, proof that decent movies can be released any time. I'd love a piece on films to look forward to for the Summer and Fall, but not about next February. Plus, need I remind you, it's an election year. There's plenty of stuff to talk about.
Posted by BurmaShave
at March 3, 2008 12:58 AM
comment #13
Craptastic
says ...
I have no time for this. "The Lost Skeleton of Cadavra" is on television.
I sleep now.
Posted by Craptastic
at March 3, 2008 1:22 AM
comment #14
Geoff
says ...
I'm not looking forward to THE ROAD until I see some productions stills, read some interviews from the filmmakers, see a trailer, or even read some advanced reviews.
I'm trepidatious. No Country for Old Men was so unique and tailor made for talented people like the Coens so they could hit it out of the ballpark.
But with THE ROAD, I just don't know....
Posted by Geoff
at March 3, 2008 2:21 AM
comment #15
Rich S.
says ...
And they thought the ratings for the Oscars sucked THIS year!
Posted by Rich S.
at March 3, 2008 5:02 AM
comment #16
T. S. Idiot
says ...
I recently read The Reader, and if the film is anything close to the novel, it will receive considerable Oscar attention. Yet while the Holocaust guilt theme will appeal to the voters, some may be put off by the adult-teenager sex angle. Kate Winslet is perfectly cast, much better than the previously cast Kidman, and may finally get her Oscar. The biggest downside is that Stephen Daldry and David Hare may bring the same hamfisted approach that sank The Hours.
Posted by T. S. Idiot
at March 3, 2008 5:20 AM
comment #17
btwnproductions
says ...
"That same hamfisted approach" won Kidman her Oscar, so Winslet is in good company. I always wanted to see what Hare/Daldry planned to make of THE CORRECTIONS, but that didn't pan out.
Posted by btwnproductions
at March 3, 2008 5:25 AM
comment #18
Josh Massey
says ...
Soderbergh's chances at Best Picture will be out the window when those two movies make nine bucks between them.
This could very easily be Pitt's year.
Posted by Josh Massey
at March 3, 2008 5:52 AM
comment #19
romeoisbleeding
says ...
I think Fincher may finally be rewarded after he was so ignored last year for Zodiac. Sorry but I will never get over that. I think The Soloist could do very well too. Sounds like a classy movie and Joe Wright is only going to get better.
Posted by romeoisbleeding
at March 3, 2008 6:12 AM
comment #20
Mgmax, le Corbeau
says ...
With any luck, Soderbergh's Che films will come out just as the Castro regime collapses, and all the commentary about them will be on his whitewash of the reality, and they'll do Redacted-level business.
Baz Luhrmann's Australian verson of Giant? Part of me wants to say that Luhrmann and quality have never come within a thousand miles of each other, he's another example of what Libby Gelman-Waxner called "the talent-free genius"-- and part of me suspects that that has Oscar written all over it.
Posted by Mgmax, le Corbeau
at March 3, 2008 6:19 AM
comment #21
snoop
says ...
How in hell are Revolutionary Road and Burn After Reading not mentioned as one of the top contenders. Mendes and the reteaming of Winslet and DiCaprio in a film based on an acclaimed novel? And The Coen's hot off of No Country with Pitt, Clooney and the rest?
I'd bet on both of these over The Soloist, Australia, and Seven Pounds.
Oh, and Doubt can't be left out either. Two powerhouses and Hollywood's new darling in an adaption of a great play...
Posted by snoop
at March 3, 2008 6:26 AM
comment #22
Filmsnob
says ...
Ledger Best Supp. Actor-The Dark Knight
Posted by Filmsnob
at March 3, 2008 6:52 AM
comment #23
corey3rd
says ...
I look at that pic of Australia and think of a Gay version of "Shane."
Posted by corey3rd
at March 3, 2008 6:58 AM
comment #24
christian
says ...
I guess the kidz are interested in ol' Dr. Jones:
The trailer for the May 22 release has drawn highly enthusiastic responses in theaters. But it may have had its biggest impact online, on a younger audience that may not think of Ford, 65, as equal to today's spry action heroes.
After premiering Feb. 14 on "Good Morning America," Lucasfilm and Viacom Inc.'s Paramount Pictures sent the trailer to the Web, plus movie theaters and TV stations around the world. Paramount estimates the trailer was seen more than 200 million times worldwide in the first week alone.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080303/ap_en_mo/film_indiana_jones_trailer
Posted by christian
at March 3, 2008 7:19 AM
comment #25
Joel
says ...
Can anyone locate Jeff's first Oscar maybe story from 06 or 07? I was looking for them last week just to see how his earliest guesses played out, but this site's search function kind of blows.
Posted by Joel
at March 3, 2008 7:34 AM
comment #26
Walter Sobchak
says ...
My only concern is that Luhrmann's "Australia" might not be gay enough.
Posted by Walter Sobchak
at March 3, 2008 8:02 AM
comment #27
Mr. Buckles
says ...
Already talkin' Oscars, oy vey! Oscars = the crack of film journalism.
Posted by Mr. Buckles
at March 3, 2008 8:39 AM
comment #28
Cindy
says ...
Sorry, I like Jackman well enough, but he looks like he's about to break into "Oooooklahoma, where the wind goes sweeping down the plains". Rugged looking cattle drover he ain't. Russell Crowe would have been far more realistic, IMO, as well as being a superior actor. However, I'm much happier to have had 3:10 to Yuma and American Gangster than what may well be an overly bloated spectacle.
I've recently watched the BBC 6 hour mini, State of Play and I'm very eager to see how it's translated to movie length, but I believe that won't be out until 2009.
From Jeff's list I am pretty excited to see Blindness, an excellent book. Also, as I lived in the Bay Area when Harvey Milk was killed, I will definitely want to see that. As a big Crowe fan of course I'll see Body of Lies, but I have to say Leo impresses me more every year so I also want to see Revolutionary Road.
Posted by Cindy
at March 3, 2008 8:49 AM
comment #29
MASON
says ...
I was underwhelmed by the script to Body of Lies. Wanted to love it and didn't -- felt thin. I believe it was an early draft, however.
I loved the script to The Changeling. It's an amazing true story and I suspect Eastwood will knock it out of the part.
Posted by MASON
at March 3, 2008 9:19 AM
comment #30
MarkVH
says ...
Y'all are still talking about the '08 Oscars? I'm over 'em already and on to next year. Michael Mann in '09 (or '10), baby.
Posted by MarkVH
at March 3, 2008 9:56 AM
comment #31
frankbooth
says ...
corey3rd,
Shane wasn't gay?
http://www.tvguide.com/movies/dbpix/images/20010a.jpg
Posted by frankbooth
at March 3, 2008 10:56 AM
comment #32
BurmaShave
says ...
Walter, hilarious.
Posted by BurmaShave
at March 3, 2008 11:08 AM
comment #33
adorian
says ...
What's wrong with talking about the next Oscars already? I read a big story about which college team is going to win the college championship next season. And I have relatives already talking about what teams will be in the next Super Bowl and World Series. And, oh yes, I hear people talking about which Republican will run for president in 2012, so what's wrong with talking about Oscars?
How about Spike Lee's The Miracle of St. Anna with Derek Luke? And The Express with Rob Brown?
Jessica Lange and Drew Barrymore in Gray Gardens.
Emily Blunt in Young Victoria.
The project that most scares me is Helen Mirren and Joe Pesci in Love Ranch, about a Nevada brothel. Tell me there's no love scene between those two. I gather Bai Ling plays one of the working girls. If it were a comedy, it might work, but someone told me it's a drama. No way.
Posted by adorian
at March 3, 2008 11:11 AM
comment #34
StoneFan1
says ...
"Defiance" Daniel Craig
Best Actor nominee...book it!
Posted by StoneFan1
at March 3, 2008 12:59 PM
comment #35
p.Vice
says ...
So when are we going to start talking about some GOOD movies that might be coming out later this year?
Posted by p.Vice
at March 3, 2008 6:03 PM
comment #36
BurmaShave
says ...
Read through this and Kris Trapley's and then through the boards on Sasha Stone's site, and I haven't seen any mention yet of Jim Sheridan's BROTHERS, the Suzanne Bier remake. Comes out December 9 I believe.
Posted by BurmaShave
at March 4, 2008 12:56 AM