"Semi-Pro" tracking shortfall
I've just been told of a Saturday morning box-office shocker as far as tracking data is concerned. Will Ferrell's Semi-Pro (New Line) is now looking like it'll earn only about $15,184,000 for the weekend, according to a rival studio's estimate. That's over $25 million less than what Fantasy Moguls' Steve Mason predicted just yesterday.
This isn't a typo -- the basketball comedy did only $5,384,000 yesterday.
Semi-Pro was looking like a modest-to-decent opener last Tuesday until a big surge in tracking data two days ago, which led Mason to predict a weekend tally of $40 million-plus.
Is this the biggest tracking wrongo of all time? Something was clearly wrong with the methodology. (Too small a sample?) This is worse than the polling numbers for the New Hampshire and California primaries. Mason has egg on his face and some explaining to do.
Vantage Point is #2 with $11,954,000...off 48% from last weekend. (That's all? For a movie as bad as thsi one? Another indicator of American taste buds.) The Spiderwick Chronicles will come in third with $8,438,000. The Other Boleyn Girl is in fourth place with 8115 (only 1100 theatres, almost $7000 a print, not bad). Jumper will come in fifth with roughly $7,288,000.
Step Up will be sixth with $5,372,000. Fool's Gold is seventh with $4,452,000. No Country for Old Men benefitted from the Best Picture win with $4,003,000 and an eighth-place finish. Juno wil be ninth with $3,515,000, and Penelope will come in tenth with $3,197,000 -- a disaster.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on March 1, 2008 at 9:45 AM
comment #1
gustav13
says ...
can't help but think it would have done better if they at least put an established comedian/actor in the black guy's role rather than the guy from outcast...
Posted by gustav13
at March 1, 2008 10:30 AM
comment #2
corey3rd
says ...
Will Ferrell's "Dipshit Train" has gone off the rails. The sound you hear is the budget on Land of the Lost being adjusted.
Posted by corey3rd
at March 1, 2008 10:30 AM
comment #3
MDOC
says ...
They have really been pushing this thing hard too, between all the product tie ins and the super bowl ads awareness must have been high. I still can't bring myself to watch the Talladega Nights DVD my sister gave me for Christmas last year.
Posted by MDOC
at March 1, 2008 10:38 AM
comment #4
rgmax99
says ...
I'm still seeing it today.
And Ferrell's "Dipshit Train" is still the funniest thing going.
Posted by rgmax99
at March 1, 2008 10:40 AM
comment #5
Undercover Brother
says ...
"Semi-Pro" is like coming out with Part 4 or 5 of any franchise. Good, bad or whatever, people are tired of it. Especially in the quick order in which Farrell has produced these things.
Posted by Undercover Brother
at March 1, 2008 10:47 AM
comment #6
gradystiles
says ...
No, it's Mason completely misreading the tracking data, just like you and your sources normally do, Jeff.
Also, as I mentioned in another thread, an attorney for Nielsen has sent Fantasy Moguls a cease and desist letter regarding the tracking data they post. Maybe you'll be getting one soon, too.
Posted by gradystiles
at March 1, 2008 10:49 AM
comment #7
lazespud
says ...
Jeez - Jumper is the real story here. How in the world does Doug Liman keep pumping out movies that inexplicably make tons of money? If you look at Box Office Mojo, this festering pile will probably pull in at least 200 million worldwide.
I can't think of any other director who has his own studios put out healthy amounts of preventative PR before the release of EACH of his movies to effectively undercut any expectation and put all the blame on him for the pending disaster at the box office. Yet despite the nightmare stories about his productions, the movies keep coming out and keep making a mint.
Posted by lazespud
at March 1, 2008 10:58 AM
comment #8
Cadavra
says ...
Don't forget that SEMI-PRO is rated R. Kids were probably pulling the old trick of buying tix to a PG-13 film and then sneaking in.
Posted by Cadavra
at March 1, 2008 11:06 AM
comment #9
George Prager
says ...
This is the box office version of the Bradley Effect.
Call it the Ferrell Effect: when moviegoers are enticed by a new Will Ferrell film and express interest in seeing it, since they want to see something new, and everyone around the water cooler is talking about it, and the commercials make it look funny, but when the weekend comes around they realize that the movie will probably be lame, they can always rent it, let's see something else, etc.
So from now on, box office observers should automatically take $15 mil. off the box office projections for every Will Ferrell comedy.
Posted by George Prager
at March 1, 2008 11:24 AM
comment #10
Vitesse98
says ...
The ubiquity of Ferrell hurts him. Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free, you know? It's not like he's any funnier in his films than he is in the promos, online shorts, etc.
Posted by Vitesse98
at March 1, 2008 11:41 AM
comment #11
bachelorcool
says ...
"The sound you hear is the budget on Land of the Lost being adjusted."
Brilliant.
Posted by bachelorcool
at March 1, 2008 12:09 PM
comment #12
Jay T.
says ...
Wow, looks like the Will Ferrell saturation point has finally been reached. On the other hand, I predict this film will be HUGE on DVD... only after which can a film be called a financial bust (The Girl Next Door was a perfect example of this).
Posted by Jay T.
at March 1, 2008 12:13 PM
comment #13
christian
says ...
Tracking wrong? Again? Please Jeff. Stop. It doesn't mean shit.
Posted by christian
at March 1, 2008 12:23 PM
comment #14
caslab
says ...
you can have a bad movie and do just fine
but a bad movie with a bad release date?
that'll kill ya.
Posted by caslab
at March 1, 2008 12:32 PM
comment #15
George Prager
says ...
Step Brothers is next:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=IdtncTQXwl4
It looks funny!
Posted by George Prager
at March 1, 2008 1:01 PM
comment #16
actionman
says ...
Nothing will change with the budget for Land of the Lost. It's a children's movie. It will be huge.
Posted by actionman
at March 1, 2008 1:37 PM
comment #17
gradystiles
says ...
Christian: As I've said numerous times on here, tracking wasn't wrong. Jeff's contact and Steve Mason were wrong because they don't know how to interpret the data. Jeff and Steve should leave the interpretation of tracking data to those who know what to do with it.
Posted by gradystiles
at March 1, 2008 2:56 PM
comment #18
corey3rd
says ...
Step Brothers would be funny if all it was is the Trailer. but 90 more minutes of it....there's not enough Malt Liquor in the world to make me think "I can believe this would happen." How can we believe that this duo aren't spending most of their days smoking pot in the basement? Or are they supposed to be mildly autistic?
Posted by corey3rd
at March 1, 2008 2:57 PM
comment #19
D.Z.
says ...
We gotta wait for Saturday's numbers first, but sports parodies rarely do well. Look at Baseketball. If it was a sports comedy like Blades of Glory, that'd be different, but Semi-Pro relied more on industry jokes than game jokes. Ferrell's box office power is still undecided. Do certain comedies he's done work because of him, or because of the concept?
Very surprised about that Boleyn movie's box office, though. I'm still gonna see My Blueberry Nights, but I hope this doesn't bode badly for Portman. Was Mr. Magorium to blame or Marie Antoinette?
corey: "The sound you hear is the budget on Land of the Lost being adjusted."
A big-budget Land of the Lost was a stupid idea anyway, since younger kids would think it was a rip off of Jurassic Park. Universal keeps embarrasing themselves.
spud: "Jeez - Jumper is the real story here. How in the world does Doug Liman keep pumping out movies that inexplicably make tons of money?"
Jumper's doing alright, but it ain't gonna be another Mr. and Mrs. Smith or Bourne Identity. I think he's peaked.
actionman: "Nothing will change with the budget for Land of the Lost. It's a children's movie. It will be huge."
No it ain't gonna be huge, because the dinosaur thing's been done to death, and it'll be coming after 10,000 B.C. to boot.
Posted by D.Z.
at March 1, 2008 5:04 PM
comment #20
D.Z.
says ...
Oh, and never underestimate the comeback potential of an SNL alumni. We've seen Bill Murray and Steve Martin bounce back plenty of times.
Posted by D.Z.
at March 1, 2008 5:07 PM
comment #21
movieirv
says ...
weren't all you guys saying this after kicking and screaming?!
Posted by movieirv
at March 2, 2008 1:02 PM
comment #22
Steve Mason
says ...
Contrary to what Undercover Brother and Actionman have written above, I only receive tracking data and interpretation of those numbers from studio execs. I don't have the expertise to analyze it myself. That's what the numbers crunchers at the big studios do. I'm just a reporter.
As for SEMI-PRO, I don't think anyone misread the numbers and I am told that the numbers were correct. The problem is that audience surveys from the various industry tracking firms don't always accurately represent what's really happening in the marketplace. They "suggest" what "may" happen, but there is no guarantee a certain performance.
This isn't unlike what happened in this year's New Hampshire primary where Barack Obama was shown to have an insurmountable lead in pre-election polls and even exit surveys prior to Hillary Clinton's victory.
I do believe that the conducting of and interpretation of industry tracking is a "black art," and, although I have a rough working knowledge, I leave the translation to "the experts."
I guess the bottom line is that sometimes the tracking is solid and the movie doesn't work, and, conversely, sometimes the tracking is soft and the film succeeds.
Love the HE site and all of Jeffrey's excellent reporting. Although I don't always agree, he's a one-of-a-kind voice in the business.
Steve Mason
Posted by Steve Mason
at March 2, 2008 1:43 PM
comment #23
corey3rd
says ...
they should have stuck with the Dipshit formula - release the PG-13 version in the theaters and the "unrated" version on DVD. although anyone under 17 really doesn't have any major memories of seeing ABA basketball. Do these kids even know who Dr. J is?
Posted by corey3rd
at March 2, 2008 3:22 PM