I can't offer a link, but somebody (Joe Leydon?) recently quoted Pauline Kael as having said that she could tell if a movie blew by watching the first ten minutes. I've always been able to tell in less than five. Like with people, there are dozens of ways that movies give the game away early. In House of Games Joe Mantegna called them "tells."

Sometimes I can smell trouble from an opening-credit sequence. Any comedy or relationship movie from a big studio that opens with a helicopter shot of a major city (you know the kind of shot I mean...swooping in over the bay, moving under a bridge) is almost certainly going to cause pain.
I've actually moved beyond credit sequences. When it comes to films I haven't read the scripts of or heard stuff about, I can all tell a lot by just skimming an Entertainment Weekly preview blurb. I read it, other stuff kicks in, I get a fix. Here's a rundown on the whole spring season, based partly on the EW article in last week's issue (#980), partly on screenings, partly on film-festival buzz, partly aroma, partly knowing the directors, partly talk, partly insect antennae.
Out of 33 films, 12 are either known or suspected of being very good, good or decent second-raters.
High Calibre, Certainly Worth Seeing: Roger Donaldson's The Bank Job (3.7); Kimberley Peirce's Stop Loss (3.28); Martin Scorsese's Shine a Light (4.4). (3)
Promising but No Promises: Ira Sachs' Married Life (3.7 -- good festival buzz); George Clooney's Leatherheads (4.4); David Mamet's Redbelt (4.25); Noam Murro's Smart People (4.11); David Ayer's Street Kings (4.11); Marcel Langenegger's The Tourist (4.25); Helen Hunt's Then She Found Me (4.25); Bill Maher's Sleepwalking (3.14); Thomas McCarthy's The Visitor (4.18). (9)

Possibly Tolerable: Steven Brill's Drillbit Taylor (3.21 -- mild slapstick, Owen Wilson featherings); Roland Emmerich's 10,000 B.C. (cheap sabre-tooth thrills); Michael Haneke's Funny Games (sadistic perversity); Robert Luketic's 21 (3.28); Carter Smith'The Ruins (4.4); Michael McCullers' Baby Mama (4.25). (6)
Caveat Emptor: Bharat Nalluri's Miss Pettigew Lives for a Day (3.7); Zak Penn's The Grand (3.21 -- best-in-show poker movie...meh); Wong Kar Wai's My Blueberry Nights (saw it in Cannes, big disappointment); Jennifer Flackett and Mark Levin's Nim's Island; Jon Hurwitz and Hayden Schlossberg's Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay (4.25); Jon Avnet's 8 Minutes (4.18); ; Nicholas Stoller's Forgetting Sarah Marshall (not with that title); Gus Van Sant's Paranoid Park (3.7); David Gordon Green's Snow Angels (3.7); Masayuki Ochiai's Shutter. (10)
No Way in Hell: Tyler Perry's Meet The Browns (3.21 -- obvious reasons); J.P. Schaefer's Chapter 27 (3.28 -- Mark Chapman stalks John Lennon, delayed forever, said to be rough going, fat Jared Leto + Lindsay Lohan); Jimmy Hayward and Steve Martino's Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who (3.14); Nelson McCormick's Prom Night (4.11); Craig Mazin's Superhero Movie (3.28). (5)
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on March 2, 2008 at 4:59 PM
comment #1
JHRussell
says ...
I saw a trailer for "Leatherheads" today (in the theater) that I had not previously seen, and against my better instincts, I think this may actually turn out to be a good flick...
Posted by JHRussell
at March 2, 2008 7:10 PM
comment #2
thatrader
says ...
My mind is blown that Michael London's "The Visitor" and "Smart People" got picked up, while his only good film at Sundance, "Mysteries of Pittsburgh," did not. Audiences will see why soon enough if they actually go to see either.
Posted by thatrader
at March 2, 2008 7:11 PM
comment #3
Noel Murray
says ...
PARANOID PARK was in the Top 5 of movies I saw at the Toronto fest last year--and that was one of the best TIFFs in years.
I'd move that up your list.
Posted by Noel Murray
at March 2, 2008 7:24 PM
comment #4
Aguirre
says ...
MARRIED LIFE is utterly worthless and only vaguely watchable.
FORGETTING SARAH MARSHALL is hilarious and as raunchy as it is endearing... sure to be a huge hit.
BABY MAMA was cute, but other than a more pointed appeal to metropolitan women, just doesn't have the goods to compete with SARAH MARSHALL - two films opening within two weeks of each other.
THE GRAND has WERNER HERZOG AS AN EVIL GERMAN POKER PLAYER WHO NEEDS HAND LOTION. I WILL BE THERE.
and i really hope that jeff (and the rest of the world) is just way off the mark about MY BLUEBERRY NIGHTS... wong kar-wai meets CHAN MARSHALL!??! how could that fail!?
and jeffy-poo, i wouldn't be all that proud about your affinity for divining the quality of films before you see them... it's this exact quality that all too often renders you stubborn and predictable (i.e. your coverage of MARIE ANTOINETTE that wreaked of pre-judgment and a major lack of understanding of the film's intentions). i'm sure you're right to trust your gut 95% of the time, but that other 5% when you absolutely refuse to give something a legitimate shot has caused this reader no small amount of nausea, heartburn, upset stomach, indigestion, and... more.
Posted by Aguirre
at March 2, 2008 7:25 PM
comment #5
JHRussell
says ...
Aguirre:
I am lost - are you saying Marie Antoinette was good or bad?
Cuz I thought it totally sucked...and I usually go for those period costume dramas...did anybody enjoy the SNL parody last night of The Other Boleyn Girl? - man, what a swipe at a flick that just opened this weekend (when would they have seen it to make that much fun of it?)...
But I agree completely with your point about the failings of prejudging movies based on very little, not having a fairly open mind about them.
Posted by JHRussell
at March 2, 2008 7:31 PM
comment #6
Noah
says ...
Paranoid Park is one of the best films that you will see this year. It is pure brilliance. Plus, any film from Gus Van Sant or David Gordon Green should be in the must-see category.
Unfortunately, Jeff is right about My Blueberry Nights (and I say this as a huge fan of Portman, Weisz and Chan Marshall). It's just astonishingly mediocre and banal. The movie should be about 25 minutes long; the whole road-trip is entirely unnecessary.
Posted by Noah
at March 2, 2008 7:36 PM
comment #7
nemo
says ...
Where is sardine, now that Marie Antoinette has come up?
Posted by nemo
at March 2, 2008 7:37 PM
comment #8
Aguirre
says ...
noah... your take on blueberry nights makes me a sad panda, but i couldn't agree with you more about PARANOID PARK. sublime. oh, and thanks for mentioning it - SNOW ANGELS is another oasis... this is going to be a deservingly big year for david gordon green.
the film i'm most excited about seeing? BLIND MOUNTAIN by Li Yang. predictably off of jeffy-poo's rather limited radar...
JHRussell - i'm an ardent admirer of MARIE ANTOINETTE, and was rather disgusted by the lazy critical reaction it saw (it's no small wonder that it was received much better by... finer, more detailed publications such as FILM COMMENT than it was by most paid american critics...), but that's completely irrelevant re: my complaint about pre-judgment. i feel as if i would have been somewhat perturbed by wells' posturing even if i'd loathed it.
Posted by Aguirre
at March 2, 2008 7:42 PM
comment #9
MickTravis
says ...
"Any comedy or relationship movie from a big studio that opens with a helicopter shot of a major city (you know the kind of shot I mean...swooping in over the bay, moving under a bridge) is almost certainly going to cause pain."
The credits for "Zodiac" begin with just such a shot. But I guess that's why you specified comedy or relationships.
Still, what if someone went into "Zodiac," saw the helicopter shot of the bay and the city (actually CGI, that) and said, "Whoops, it's gonna suck, I just know these things," and walked out?
Posted by MickTravis
at March 2, 2008 7:43 PM
comment #10
MickTravis
says ...
Also:
"Funny Games" creates a quandry for me because I have to see anything with Naomi Watts but I must avoid, at the risk of seizure, anything with Michael Pitt in it. Yes, I liked Hedwig and The Dreamers, but Pitt makes me want to punch him in the throat.
But I'll see "The Grand." Werner Herzog is in it playing a scary German gambler who has to take the life of some living creature every day.
Posted by MickTravis
at March 2, 2008 7:55 PM
comment #11
PerfectTommy
says ...
Wells, have you seen "Stop-Loss"? Because I've only seen the trailer, and from that it would go, at best, in my possibly tolerable list. (Your other musts: "The Bank Job" which you have seen and you've sold me on seeing it and a Scorsesee film... well, that's a must on the name alone.)
Posted by PerfectTommy
at March 2, 2008 8:01 PM
comment #12
The Winchester
says ...
Mick Travis, I second your Michael Pitt reactions. I just don't get him, and he makes me want to punch the screen. Last Days was torturous.
Paranoid Park is very well crafted, and it has a nice ethereal flow, but there are only so many skate films one can watch before wanting to yell "Get on with it!"
Where's Doomsday on this list? Surely if Roland Emmerich's 10,000 BC gets a "Possibly Tolerable", Doomsday should be on here. That movie looks badass!
And the more I see the preview for 21, the more I want to stay away from it.
I'm finished.
Posted by The Winchester
at March 2, 2008 8:10 PM
comment #13
Josh Massey
says ...
A film has to be very powerful to overcome the casting of either Michael Pitt or Ben Foster.
Posted by Josh Massey
at March 2, 2008 8:21 PM
comment #14
Noah
says ...
Winchester, the thing about your criticism of Paranoid Park is that I don't think it's a "skate film" at all. The main character, for example, never once skateboards through the entire picture. It's as much a "skate film" as Elephant is a "high school movie." Sure, skating parks and the people who frequent them are the milieu in which Van Sant is working, but the skating is really just a macguffin.
Posted by Noah
at March 2, 2008 8:26 PM
comment #15
berg
says ...
10 minute rule, 10 minute rule ... it ain't always an accurate barometer but its still a valid way to access a movie ... however remember a film from a few years back called LITTLE BLACK BOOK, that film was treacle but then in the third act it became a lot better, way better than the parts that preceded ... same thing for Miss Pettigrew Lives For A Day, a film that actually seemed to get better after the first hour (director confusing screwball antics with theatrical posing) ... what can I say - it grew on me
Posted by berg
at March 2, 2008 8:35 PM
comment #16
Luke Y. Thompson
says ...
It's a play rather than a movie, but OUR TOWN struck me as insufferably boring when I first encountered it. The final act, however, pays off everything in spades.
Posted by Luke Y. Thompson
at March 2, 2008 9:17 PM
comment #17
Movie fan09
says ...
I saw a trailer for "Leatherheads" today (in the theater) that I had not previously seen, and against my better instincts, I think this may actually turn out to be a good flick...
maybe.
if they can recast renee zwellweger..
she's too cutes-y to be the 40s hepburn type.
Posted by Movie fan09
at March 2, 2008 9:18 PM
comment #18
carla kolchak
says ...
Oooh, Herzog & Penn together again? Count me in! I loved Incident at Loch Ness!
Posted by carla kolchak
at March 2, 2008 9:44 PM
comment #19
The Winchester
says ...
Noah,
Sorry, I forgot to preview (and I've been huffing too much glue) and "skate film" should have read "skate footage". As it seems there's about ten-fifteen minutes of Super 8 skate footage (though beautifully shot) scattered throughout the film to extend it to feature length. I appreciate that the camera work is trying to get into the mindset of the character, but it came to the point in the screening room when skating footage would begin, and I would do what's affectionately known in these parts as "The Wells groan-n-shift" (Patent pending).
As I felt with Last Days, I respect what Van Sant is doing and how he's doing it, even if I don't necessarily like it.
Posted by The Winchester
at March 2, 2008 10:50 PM
comment #20
Noah
says ...
Ahh, gotcha. I'm a big fan of all the recent Van Sant films and recently wrote a column detailing my love for this "new look" Van Sant, but I understand the folks that just can't deal or that admire the films more than they enjoy them. It's a completely understandable criticism and it seems like you "get" it and everything; but I suppose the differences in our opinions are the norm for these movies.
Posted by Noah
at March 2, 2008 11:08 PM
comment #21
UnChien
says ...
Be Kind Rewind opens just like you described, and holy shit, is it just me or are the first 30 minutes of that film some of the most embarassing first 30 minutes ever shot by a major talent?
Posted by UnChien
at March 3, 2008 12:59 AM
comment #22
Heleno
says ...
Drillbit Taylor isn't a patch on Forgetting Sarah Marshall. The latter isn't a classic, but it's very very funny. Taylor's massively disappointing.
Posted by Heleno
at March 3, 2008 1:27 AM
comment #23
le corbeau
says ...
If something takes the easy, audience-pandering way in its first ten minutes, what are the chances it's going to grow a spine later on? It must happen, but I can't think of an example. Cheese reveals its character early on. Sensibility is consisent.
Posted by le corbeau
at March 3, 2008 5:52 AM
comment #24
Dave
says ...
While I kinda/sorta agree with the ten minute rule (there are exceptions to every "rule" of this kind), Jeff is wrong to dismiss movies unseen.
One, Jeff gets paid to do what 99.9999% of the world does *as a hobby*. He's not an *advertising* critic, he's a MOVIE critic.
Two, how many times has Jeff judged a book (i.e. movie) by a cover and been proven wrong? Atonement, anyone?
I know, "life is short," blah blah blah. We all have shitty days at the office. It's just that Jeff's shitty day involves seeing Daddy Day Care. That's a small price to pay in order to hobknob with genius.
Posted by Dave
at March 3, 2008 7:15 AM
comment #25
JHRussell
says ...
How about when a movie starts strong - say "Across the Universe" - I was quite intrigued by the opening scene (on the beach?) - and about 15 minutes in you are looking at your watch, and it never gets any better after that...
Posted by JHRussell
at March 3, 2008 8:43 AM
comment #26
le corbeau
says ...
Yeah, there are more than a few films that seem like genius at first, then keep hitting that same novel note until you can't stand it any more. Five minutes into Malle's Zazie Dans le Metro, I thought it was one of the most amazing movies ever made. 45 minutes in, I walked out.
Posted by le corbeau
at March 3, 2008 8:50 AM
comment #27
Noah
says ...
Mgmax, great call on Zazie Dans le Metro. It does get back on track towards the end again, I think, but it very quickly goes from genius to annoying.
Posted by Noah
at March 3, 2008 9:17 AM
comment #28
sardine
says ...
Why here i am, Nemo. So kind of you to ask.
Having watched a few movies with Pauline Kael, I don't think she knew absoutely if a movie was a was a dog in the first 5 minutes.
Nemo, you will be surprised about Sofia Coppola's next project! Cheers & Beers.....from Sardine
Posted by sardine
at March 3, 2008 9:49 AM
comment #29
moviemaniac2002
says ...
I'm always reluctant to pre-judge movies...but
I'll say this much...any movie that starts with
with three or more odious, cutesy, artsy-craftsy
production company logos...has already pissed
me off.
Posted by moviemaniac2002
at March 3, 2008 8:53 PM