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Uptick Action
Three mildly interesting things have just happened in the Democratic primary race -- one today, two yesterday.
First, a Public Policy poll released earlier this afternoon found that Barack Obama had regained a sizable lead over Hillary Clinton among North Carolina voters, 55 to 34 percentage points. He leads 80% to 14% among black voters with Clinton topping him 47 % to 40% among white voters, although she was allegedly ahead of him with this group at 56% to 30% a week ago.
Second, Senate Democratic Majority leader Harry Reid of Nevada told the Las Vegas Review Journal's Molly Ball yesterday that "things are being done" to assure that the Clinton-Obama race will be settled "well" before the convention (most observers believe it'll definitely be settled by the early-to-mid May results of the North Carolina, Oregon and Indiana primaries).
And third, U.S. Senator Mary Cantwell of Washington State, a current Clinton supporter, yesterday told the Columbian's editorial board that the candidate with the most pledged delegates at the end of the primary season in late June will have the strongest claim to the party's presidential nomination.
In other words, there's a slightly more pronounced feeling of support and sentiment tipping away from Clinton, and the impact of last week's Reverend Wright trauma appears to be fading in some quarters. Weird, though, about the disparity between North Carolina voters and the hermetic, rank-and-file Pensylvanians -- redneck, lunchbox, under-educated, down-in-the-mines, etc.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on March 25, 2008 at 5:10 PM
comment #1
Matthew Lucas
says ...
Speaking as someone who actually lives in North Carolina, I can say with some confidence that Obama has this one in the bag. Why else would Bill Clinton come out and say we're not a "must-win?" Because he knows Hillary is going to lose.
Although your description of Pennsylvania voters could describe a lot of NC voters as well.
Posted by Matthew Lucas
at March 25, 2008 5:51 PM
comment #2
Mgmax
says ...
The disparity isn't weird.
Percentage of population that is African-American:
Pennsylvania: 9.6%
North Carolina: 20.4%
Add that in one, the white population is heavily unionized and thus more likely to vote Democratic, while in the other it's fairly Republican.
Posted by Mgmax
at March 26, 2008 7:07 AM
comment #3
Mr. Buckles
says ...
The latest Rammusen poll shows the gap between Clinton and Obama closing by about 8 points. Current the poll shows support for Clinton at 49% and Obama at 39% - the pre-speech difference had been about an 18 point difference in a Quinnipac University poll.
Obama does not nearly as well in West Virginia where the polls are midevil on his ass.
Posted by Mr. Buckles
at March 26, 2008 7:26 AM
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