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I've been shown data indicating that in terms of delegates chosen at last night's caucuses, Hillary Clinton may not have won Texas. Maybe. The final counts aren't in. But what I'm looking at seems persuasive.

With an official Texas website tally of delegates that began to be counted last night in the caucuses, otherwise known as Texas Democratic Party Precinct Conventions, Hollywood Elsewhere columnist Moises Chiullan, who paticipated in a caucus last night in Austin, is telling me that if trends continue Barack Obama is going to emerge as the overall Texas delegate winner.

Look at the 31 Senate districts in this chart. By my count, Clinton is ahead in 11 of these districts (#19 through #22, #26 through #31) and Obama is ahead in the other 20.

The primary voting resulted in Clinton with 64 delegates and Obama with 62 delegates. The caucuses are choosing another 68 delegates, and if the trends evident in last night's caucus voting are ratified by the still-continuing manual counts, it looks as if Obama will end up with somewhere around two-thirds of the 68, or roughly 45 or 46 delegates to Clinton's 22 or 23. If the numbers continue along the lines of what's already tallied, I'm saying.

In short, it may well be that Clinton didn't take Texas after all. Maybe.

The people who were elected to be Texas delegates have to show up at the various Texas county conventions on March 29th. So it's vitally important for every last Obama delegate to show up -- no colds or fevers, no I-couldn't-get-a-babysitter, nothing like that.

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Posted by Jeffrey Wells on March 5, 2008 at 11:59 AM

comment #1

Dave Polands Gut says ...

DOn't worry. Obama will beat Hillary but lose in a landslide in the general to McCain.

People are not going to vote for Mr Inexperienced and Mr Accomplished Nothing in a time of war.

Posted by Dave Polands Gut at March 5, 2008 12:43 PM

comment #2

christian says ...

Mr Inexperienced and Mr Accomplished Nothing in a time of war.

You mean George Bush?

Posted by christian at March 5, 2008 12:51 PM

comment #3

nemo says ...

The whole Texas primary + caucus thing is baffling, especially on the Democratic side, where the caucus counts heavily. I think that 65% of the Texas Democratic delegates are determined by the primary, and the rest by the caucus.

If so, that's good for Obama, since he's consistently done well in states with caucuses.

The caucus count may take a while. They got very rowdy in some locations. The cops had to make a visit to settle down one Democratic caucus here in Austin last night, although apparently they didn't arrest anyone.

Posted by nemo at March 5, 2008 12:53 PM

comment #4

Joel says ...

Do people really think of it as a "time of war?" A lot of people view the "war" in Iraq they way they viewed Vietnam, as some sort of unnecessary foreign policing mission. It isn't like Germans are threatening all of Europe or anything.

I don't think it matters if Barak winds up with more delegates because Hillary already got the bump from being proclaimed the winner on every news show nationwide this morning. When it turns out Barak actually won, she can quibble about "manipulating the numbers" or something. Or give more speeches in Ohio.

Posted by Joel at March 5, 2008 12:54 PM

comment #5

Dave says ...

For weeks now, it was Jeff writing all the time about "the will of the people," i.e. the votes are what mattered, not the delegates, and that if Obama ended up winning more "votes" than delegates, well then, he should be the nominee.

Today, Jeff suddenly develops delegate fever.

Forget it, Jeff-- it's superdelegates, on the convention floor.

Posted by Dave at March 5, 2008 1:00 PM

comment #6

CinemaPhreek says ...

Any chance we can get email alerts when FILM posts go up?

Or how about spending half the time current fretted away on election coverage to catch up on past seasons of THE WIRE so you could comment on the impending series finale this Sunday?

It's rather curious for someone who likes to come-off as being "in the know" about what supposed high-minded intelligencia are discussing, that you have yet to cover this, one of the best series ever to air according to many.

Posted by CinemaPhreek at March 5, 2008 1:05 PM

comment #7

gruver1 says ...

Wells to CinemaPhreek: I rented Season Three of "The Wire" last weekend, but I couldn't find the time to watch any so I returned them. I'll try again this weekend. I've been watching the show for two weeks now. It's obviously a quality ride, but I don't give a damn about anyone so far. Who was that girl who was shot by that guy while sitting in her car in the alley? Too effin' bad if you don't like the political posts.

Posted by gruver1 at March 5, 2008 1:26 PM

comment #8

Midwest Doug says ...

Obama winning the delegate count in Texas isn't a huge benefit to him; he's already ahead in delegates. What hurts is that he lost the popular vote in 3 of 4 states, and that's going to play into media coverage of his perceived momentum and electability. He'll likely get clobbered in Pennsylvania, so he has to rack up wins in the state primaries in the mean time to get back his mojo.

Posted by Midwest Doug at March 5, 2008 1:29 PM

comment #9

BurmaShave says ...

Snoop RIP

Posted by BurmaShave at March 5, 2008 1:32 PM

comment #10

Rothchild says ...

Jeff, you need to watch it from the beginning. It's pretty embarrassing to think you can have a take on a five season show with over 100 characters after seeing two episodes near the end.

It's the best show ever to air on television.

Posted by Rothchild at March 5, 2008 1:34 PM

comment #11

Midwest Doug says ...

And Jeff, if you watched and cared about seasons 1 and 2 (especially 1), you owe it to yourself to watch season 3. The best season of them all.

Posted by Midwest Doug at March 5, 2008 1:40 PM

comment #12

OddDuck says ...

Wells said: ": I rented Season Three of "The Wire...It's obviously a quality ride, but I don't give a damn about anyone so far."

Does this mean you haven't seen season one or two? That would be the most likely reason why season three didn't grab you from the start. You seriously need to watch from the beginning. It's not my favorite, but in some ways the first season is the best. It is the purest "procedural" of all the seasons, and on that level alone is the greatest cops and robbers story ever told on TV. Its portrayal of Stringer and Avon (in the first season) really kinda reminded me of Heat.

Posted by OddDuck at March 5, 2008 1:46 PM

comment #13

dcc77 says ...

Echoing earlier sentiments, I also lament that this film fan site devolves, on occasion, to a simian version of "Crossfire" but given the drama quotient in the political world vs. the cinema world (save past and future labor strife) it's not a surprise. Each year Hollywood pushes out the not-good-enough-for-Oscar or not-big-enough-for-Summer movies in Jan, Feb, and March so this time of year is lackluster at best. 2008 is no exception.

I resisted The Wire for years as I hate being late to anyparty. However, I watched Seasons 1-3 after I saw Season 4 last year. For once, the hype was justified. It's satisfying, well-written, intellectual and adult. Right up there with The Sopranos as an all-time great drama.

RIP Snoop, indeed!

Posted by dcc77 at March 5, 2008 1:55 PM

comment #14

dangovich says ...

It's a pretty important election, alright?

Go over to Ain't It Cool if you don't like it. I'm pretty sure you won't find any politics there.

Posted by dangovich at March 5, 2008 10:04 PM

comment #15

Gaydos says ...

A fresh wind starts to shake up the Democratic party, galvanizing the young, the disenfranchised, the anti-war voters of all stripes. Then the party hacks retaliate. They throw up roadblocks to the fresh voices.

One of those voices falls silent.

And the party bosses connive to put a safe old corrupt hack up against the tough conniving Republican who is every bit the equal of the Democratic candidate and more, when it comes to crooked dirty back alley deals and obedience to defense industry and Wall Street money.

There is literally blood in the streets at the Democratic convention as the forces of change battle the old party bosses. And change loses to stasis.

The bosses' victory over the change-wing is short-lived as their standard-bearer is defeated in November by the Republican hack, who keeps the war going for another half-decade.

Similarities across 40 years?

Hell, Hillary even LOOKS like Hubert Humphrey.

Posted by Gaydos at March 5, 2008 10:55 PM

comment #16

moorish says ...

Wells, you CANNOT start watching The Wire with season 3! If indeed that is what you're doing. It would be like trying to start with The Sopranos at the 3rd season. You could muddle along with it, but all the background work on the characters would be totally lost.

Posted by moorish at March 6, 2008 3:49 AM

comment #17

le corbeau says ...

"Hollywood Elsewhere columnist Moises Chiullan"

There are other people at this site? I read it every day (obviously) and I forget that for months at a time. You ought to plug their writing once in a while or something here on the main page.

Posted by le corbeau at March 6, 2008 5:06 AM

comment #18