October 10
Choose Connor
Lower Learning
October 17
Mary
True Loved
October 22
Stranded, I Have Come From a Plane that Crashed on the Mountains
In its second weekend, Paramount and Marvel's Iron Man has again taken the #1 position. With my California number-guys currently experiencing REM sleep, Fantasy Moguls' Steve Mason is reporting earnings of $14.7 million yesterday with an expected $49 million by Sunday night and 10-day earnings total of roughly or close to $175 million.
Poor Speed Racer, forecast for weeks as a likely disappointment, apparently took in only $6.5 million yesterday and will hit about $23 million by Sunday nigh. This ranks below even Thursday's downgraded projection (based on tracking figures of 90, 29 and 16) of $25 to $30 million. "Normally" I wrote, "a 16 first choice means $15 to $20 million, depending on the demographic, but the family-trade current will kick this one up." Not enough!
Mason, clearly affected emotionally, adds that Speed Racer "may be a disappointment domestically, but it will play very well internationally. The movie's anime origin and the presence of Asian pop star Rain will almost certainly make it among the top grossing films of the year in key markets like Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China." And the people who made it are loved by their wives, children, mothers and coworkers.
What Happens in Vegas (Fox) will come in third, having made a little over $6 million yesterday with $17.3 million projected for the weekend. Made of Honor is fourth with an expected $7.83 million for its 2nd weekend, and Baby Mama (Universal) will be fifth with a likely $5.84 million by Sunday night, pushing past a $40 million cume.
David Mamet's Redbelt (Sony Classics) will eanr less than $1 million despite being on 1,300 screens.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on May 10, 2008 at 3:46 AM
comment #1
Richard_Stone
says ...
Jeebus, isn't it still only Saturday morning? Moms and Dads haven't even had the chance to take their kid(s) to the movie.
Anyways, I don't really care about the numbers, but I'll take Speed Racer over Iron Man any day. It has a nice future on in home video.
Posted by Richard_Stone
at May 10, 2008 4:45 AM
comment #2
K. Bowen
says ...
Which is a shame, becuase I can't imagine Speed Racer having the same visual impact on a small screen.
Posted by K. Bowen
at May 10, 2008 5:42 AM
comment #3
romeoisbleeding
says ...
I think one thing that has helped Iron Man be a huge success is the fact that it appeals to a lot of different age groups. I work in a large independent book store and talk every day to alot of people about movies. Our staff is also a good group to consider since it has older snobby self proclaimed "film critics" and younger guys who are "gamers". I fall somewhere in between. And then there is the Dad with the 7 year old kid. Everyone loves it. I was thinking the gamers would be the toughest audience as they live to indulge in cynical banter but they loved it and went back several times. And the 7 year old kid said it is his favorite new super hero. The one thing I don't think the producers expected is the female audience. Downey and Paltrow have great chemistry and their time on screen reminds me a bit of William Powell and Myrna Loy in the Thin Man. I hope they give this couple more screen time in the next movie. I have not seen Speed Racer but I am guessing it does not have quite as broad of an appeal. I am sure it is great for certain audiences but for a movie to become a block buster it has to draw in many different demographics. But I am not saying anything here that the rest of you don't already know.
Posted by romeoisbleeding
at May 10, 2008 7:01 AM
comment #4
MASON
says ...
David Poland predicted Iron Man would top out at 180 mil.
He could be right -- if all prints are somehow destroyed on Monday.
He also predicted Speed Racer would be huge.
Oh, how I love how bad he is at predicting what the public is going to respond to. It really is hilarious.
Posted by MASON
at May 10, 2008 7:47 AM
comment #5
swordandpen
says ...
And now Poland is sniping at critics who don't agree with him on both movies, as if they are out of touch. He also referred to Iron Man as a niche movie.
Now that Speed Racer has completely tanked, can we now ask why no one at Warner Brothers bothered to ask if there really was an audience for this movie to spend as much money as they did on it beyond a few geeks who saw the cartoon for camp value?
Posted by swordandpen
at May 10, 2008 7:59 AM
comment #6
LOTGA
says ...
The theatre I manage only pulled in 68 people all day on two screens for Speed Racer. I'd say it's dead in the water.
Posted by LOTGA
at May 10, 2008 8:01 AM
comment #7
David Ehrlich
says ...
whatever warner suits thought this would make money have their had their heads up their asses, but i thank them for it. catching speed racer at a PACKED BEYOND PACKED (epic line, the works) imax screening last night was a pleasant jolt to the senses. hardly a great film, but occasionally a visionary one... it actually uses its tools and the aesthetic they achieve to bypass the fundamentals of film editing and perfectly captures the spirit of the anime (though the sliding / jumping cars got a bit old-hat by the end).
having caught speed racer and THE FALL on the same day... two films with wildly disparate visual schemes... i had very happy eyes.
Posted by David Ehrlich
at May 10, 2008 8:20 AM
comment #8
Pelham123
says ...
I would think part of the reasoning behind Warner's producing "Speed Racer" is the overseas market. Anyone doubt this is going to be huge elsewhere? As we all should now know, America is just part of the box office equation. I'm planning on seeing it today and I just hope it's as batshit insane as the previews indicate. The look reminds me a little of Bava's equally wild & clearly demented "Danger: Diabolik".
Posted by Pelham123
at May 10, 2008 9:01 AM
comment #9
Terry McCarty
says ...
K.Bowen wrote:
Which is a shame, becuase I can't imagine Speed Racer having the same visual impact on a small screen.
As someone wrote on a previous thread, SPEED RACER is likely to be a calling card for Blu-Ray later this year.
Posted by Terry McCarty
at May 10, 2008 10:44 AM
comment #10
Filmshark
says ...
As for Speed Racer, this is the fifth bomb for Joel Silver. The Reaping, The Invasion, The Brave One, Fred Claus and now Speed Racer. It seems that he might have drained enough money from Warner Bros. to have kept open WIP and Picturehouse for years. I would bet Robinov would think twice before green lighting anything from Silver Pictures. That is, of course, unless they want to lose another few hundred million on Wonder Woman, the movie Joel claims he will make.
Posted by Filmshark
at May 10, 2008 11:39 AM
comment #11
jse33
says ...
Richard_Stone says ...
"Jeebus, isn't it still only Saturday morning? Moms and Dads haven't even had the chance to take their kid(s) to the movie.
Anyways, I don't really care about the numbers, but I'll take Speed Racer over Iron Man any day. It has a nice future on in home video."
Are you sure your name isn't Richard Stoned? How else to explain anyone saying they prefer Speed Racer over Iron Man.
Posted by jse33
at May 10, 2008 11:59 AM
comment #12
D.Z.
says ...
Not sure about Rain, but him playing second fiddle to the lead characters might not make a difference. It might have been smarter to cut him out, so the running time was shorter. And the anime was probably bigger here than in Japan, so that might not make a difference in world-wide box office, either. One of the guys running Digital Bits was saying it was actually doing quite well at IMAX venues, but I'm betting that's where the bulk of its ticket sales was made. But the surprisingly positive audience reviews might at least insure it gets an Iron Giant-style dvd rescue, instead of a Snakes on a Plane-style death. To be honest, though, I'm just glad Speed didn't lose to 'Vegas.
romeo: "I have not seen Speed Racer but I am guessing it does not have quite as broad of an appeal."
The problem is that it could have broad appeal, if the Wachowskis knew who they were targeting.
swordandpen: "can we now ask why no one at Warner Brothers bothered to ask if there really was an audience for this movie to spend as much money as they did on it beyond a few geeks who saw the cartoon for camp value?"
There probably was an audience for the film; the real question is whether there's still an audience for the Wachowskis.
Posted by D.Z.
at May 10, 2008 12:14 PM
comment #13
bmcintire
says ...
I can't vouch for its accuracy, but Boxofficemojo has SPEED coming in third behind WHAT HAPPENS IN VEGAS yesterday. Yikes.
Posted by bmcintire
at May 10, 2008 12:56 PM
comment #14
Aladdin Sane
says ...
Poor Speed indeed. While far from perfect, it was mostly enjoyable. It will probably do pretty good on home video. It's too bad they didn't go the 3D route - although that may have resulted in more than a few seizures.
Posted by Aladdin Sane
at May 10, 2008 2:18 PM
comment #15
K. Bowen
says ...
"Are you sure your name isn't Richard Stoned? How else to explain anyone saying they prefer Speed Racer over Iron Man."
It's a better film. And more to your point, a more adventurous film, with a higher Wow factor for those who enjoy it. That's why the positive reviews it is getting tend to be very, very strong recommendations.
Posted by K. Bowen
at May 10, 2008 3:22 PM
comment #16
Mgmax
says ...
"Everyone loves it."
I don't. Or I wouldn't, if I could remember it. What an undeserved hit out of a totally ordinary movie. Downey deserves $100 million for saving it from being as lame as a Fantastic Four movie, but a few well-delivered wisecracks are not a plot and characterizations. Just ask Roger Moore.
Posted by Mgmax
at May 10, 2008 5:22 PM
comment #17
Rich S.
says ...
I don't care a whit about the critics or the box office. Speed Racer exceeded my expectations in almost every way. It's extremely faithful to the source material and totally manages to capture a lot of the stuff that made the anime so engaging.
I liked Iron Man, but I think I liked Speed Racer even more. I am disappointed more people aren't catching on at this point, but I think that will change on home video (if you have the Blu Ray and a big screen TV).
Posted by Rich S.
at May 10, 2008 5:28 PM
comment #18
D.Z.
says ...
Mgmax: Iron Man's really riding off the success of Transformers. People want to see robot action at the moment.
Posted by D.Z.
at May 10, 2008 6:44 PM
comment #19
ripvanruben
says ...
Where is the real D.Z. and who is this dude that keeps talking sense?
Posted by ripvanruben
at May 10, 2008 7:25 PM
comment #20
Mgmax
says ...
I'd like to see hot robot on robot action.
Again, I'm kinda half looking forward to Transformers being on HBO, so I can see the good parts in half an hour or so, but Iron Man was weak-- hey, I'm the acting head of a corporation, I think once I climb in a giant robot suit, I'll do all my fighting right above the one part of the entire company that could blow me up.
You know what's odd-- there are supposed to be three digital projection theaters in the Chicago area, but Speed Racer doesn't seem to be playing on any of them. If I'm going to see candy color fakeness, I want it as candy colored and fake as possible, dammit.
Posted by Mgmax
at May 10, 2008 8:08 PM
comment #21
D.Z.
says ...
Mgmax: Someone must have misled you, because where were no good parts in Transformers.
Posted by D.Z.
at May 10, 2008 9:49 PM
comment #22
Mgmax
says ...
At least it won't cost me nything to learn the hard way.
Posted by Mgmax
at May 11, 2008 6:13 AM
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