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Last Real Showdown
The Indiana/North Carolina basics: "At stake are a total of 187 pledged delegates -- 115 in North Carolina and 72 in Indiana. Polls open in North Carolina at 6:30 am and close at 7:30 pm. In Indiana, most polls open at 6:00 am and close at 6:00 pm, but because some parts of the state are in the Central Time Zone, the official poll closing time is 7:00 pm eastern.
"And just to give you a sense of where the candidates think they're the strongest, Clinton will hold her Election Night rally in Indianapolis, while Obama will hold his his in Raleigh, NC. Interestingly, however, Clinton seems to be on the upswing in North Carolina, and Obama seems on the upswing in Indiana. Yet both are likely to win on their 'home' demographic courts.
"So what would the Vegas lines be today? Our guess: five points in each state, which should already be considered a perception victory for Clinton. But given the closet superdelegate support Obama seems to have, he's been given the benefit of the doubt with some if he simply wins North Carolina by, well, about five points. You'll know it will be a mediocre to bad night for Obama if his campaign has to talk about who won the most delegates tonight, rather than by how much they won each state." -- from MSNBC's "First Read" rundown, which arrived in my inbox at 9:14 am.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on May 6, 2008 at 6:50 AM
comment #1
sardine
says ...
If only Obama would squeek by in Indiana, and win by 8 or 9 in North Carolina.
Posted by sardine
at May 6, 2008 8:20 AM
comment #2
Matthew Lucas
says ...
Obama has this North Carolinian's vote.
Posted by Matthew Lucas
at May 6, 2008 8:30 AM
comment #3
Mgmax
says ...
"But given the closet superdelegate support Obama seems to have,"
Daniel Henninger in the WSJ had an interesting observation about Obama's "support":
At Barack Obama's darkest hour, not one prominent ally came forward to support him... No prominent black clergyman came forth to make even the simple point that Jeremiah Wright's notion of the "black church" is but one point on a spectrum of faith. Rev. Wright, now written off as a virtual nut case, got more support from black clergymen than did Obama... Barack Obama was bleeding by Monday and needed cover. Where, when he could have used them, were Obama's oh-so-famous endorsers: Jesse Jackson, Ted Kennedy, Oprah, John Kerry, Chris Dodd, [etc.]... Where were all the big-city mayors who went over to the Obama camp... It isn't hard for big names to get on talk TV to make a point. Any major op-ed page would have stopped the presses to print a statement of support from Ted Kennedy or such for the senator. None appeared. Call it profiles in gopher-holing.
Nobody knows where this is going yet. Delegate counts are only a small part of the story.
Posted by Mgmax
at May 6, 2008 8:42 AM
comment #4
Dave Polands Gut
says ...
Barack McGovern.
I do like that the liberals are nominating there most liberal Senator.
Posted by Dave Polands Gut
at May 6, 2008 11:28 AM
comment #5
Abbey Normal
says ...
Are you seriously falling for this bullshit expectations setting? C'mon...read this for some perspective:
http://www.americablog.com/2008/05/msnbc-if-obama-wins-more-delegates-he.html
Posted by Abbey Normal
at May 6, 2008 11:41 AM
comment #6
D.Z.
says ...
Dave: "Barack McGovern."
McGovern was a one-issue candidate.
"I do like that the liberals are nominating there most liberal Senator."
Yeah, he should be conservative enough to bail out banks like Bush.
Posted by D.Z.
at May 6, 2008 1:17 PM
comment #7
Matthew Lucas
says ...
Obama took North Carolina! Glad I could say I helped. From the county breakdown, it looks like he took the urban centers and counties with a higher African American population, and she took the rural backwoods counties, with the exception of mine, which is a liberal college center so Obama won.
I just hope he can pull out Indiana, but it doesn't look good. Still...at least North Carolina came through for the first time in my life!
Posted by Matthew Lucas
at May 6, 2008 5:37 PM
comment #8
D.Z.
says ...
Oh, well. If Hil wins, at least she didn't get a big landslide out of it. But man, is it close.
Posted by D.Z.
at May 6, 2008 7:47 PM
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